898
FXUS63 KAPX 190658
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
258 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers today with a clearing trend from west to east through
  the afternoon.

- Dry, seasonable weather Wednesday through Friday.

- Showers possible Friday/Saturday, followed by noticeably
  cooler temperatures Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

A shortwave trough lifting through he Great Lakes Region will
continue to draw deeper moisture into northern Michigan today.
This will support scattered showers and perhaps a few embedded
thunderstorms through the morning/ early afternoon, with locally
heavy rainfall possible in spots. Instability remains lower, so
the threat for severe storms is minimal.

Precipitation will gradually diminish from west to east as the
day progresses, with drier air arriving during the afternoon as
high pressure begins to build in from the west. Skies will start
to clear late in the day and into tonight, setting up a cooler
and quieter stretch of weather. Highs look to top out in the mid
to upper 70s, while overnight lows fall back into the mid and
upper 50s (low 60s across Grand Traverse Bay and south) under
mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

High pressure settles in place across the Great Lakes mid-week,
bringing a stretch of quiet weather and moderating
temperatures. Wednesday looks comfortable with plenty of
sunshine with highs largely in the 70s, with perhaps some 80s
mixed in for areas along and south of M-55. A warming trend then
develops into Thursday and Friday, with highs well into the 70s
to mid 80s by Friday. Overnight lows will be cool Wednesday an
Thursday nights, dipping into the 50s, to even possibly the 40s,
under clear skies.

Changes arrive later Friday into Saturday as an upper-level
trough digs across the region. A cold front will likely slip
through sometime during this period, though moisture looks
limited. Scattered showers are possible with this passage, but
it seems much of the area could remain dry... Stay tuned. Behind
the front, notably cooler air spills into the region Sunday,
with highs likely stuck in the 60s to low 70s and overnight lows
falling into the upper 40s and low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Rain will continue to work from west to east across northern
Michigan through this morning, eventually exiting the area to the
east this afternoon. As showers overspread the Northwoods, CIGs are
expected to lower to low MVFR/IFR for most areas this morning into
this afternoon. VSBYs may drop to less than 5SM at times within
heavier showers. Flight conditions look to improve from west to east
later this afternoon, likely working back to VFR later this evening
after showers depart. Southeast winds around 5-10 kts this morning
will gradually turn to northeast winds this afternoon and evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC