977
FXUS63 KAPX 280607
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
207 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showery/drizzly at times today with breezy to windy conditions.

- Cooler mid to late week with widespread below freezing overnight
  low temperatures expected.

- Occasional rain and snow showers mid to late week as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Negatively tiled trough axis will be situated across the central UP
extending southeast towards northern MI by this morning.
Consequently, most of the deep and rich layer moisture will be east
of northern Michigan during this time. That being said, low level
moisture will linger, especially across eastern upper and northwest
lower MI with showers/drizzly weather certainly possible through at
least the morning hours. Some guidance is suggesting lingering
drizzle through the early portions of the afternoon with ~1 km deep
low level saturation, although tough to say whether this will be
deep enough for drizzle. Bottom half of that 1 km layer begins to
dry out as deeper afternoon mixing takes hold, which should limit
any lingering droplets by the mid afternoon, if not sooner in most
locations. Realistically though, this is just occasional, plain
drizzle, that does nothing in regards to impacts.

Breezy to windy conditions are anticipated again today as winds
aloft remain brisk. The focus this morning through the afternoon
will likely be near/north of M-32, more specifically the Tip of
the Mitt (it will get quite windy on the mighty mac). Low
clouds and light drizzle may not allow for the best or most
consistent transport of momentum to the sfc, but still, boundary
layer winds ~30 kts with mid to upper 30s at the top of the
boundary layer suggest the potential for occasional gusts >35
mph in spots. Elsewhere, 25 to 35 mph on average. Winds finally
diminish towards evening and into tonight.

The trough today lifts well to the northeast into mid week, however,
more troughiness builds in behind across the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region. Cannot rule out a few showers near Saginaw Bay on
Wednesday as a short wave and subsequent low pressure system well to
our southeast scrape this area. As the trough (upper low) continues
to build down across the Great Lakes, the cold pool aloft oozes over
northern MI. Couple this with a few embedded pieces of energy
rotating around the main trough near/just north of the SOO, and the
potential exists for occasional rain/snow showers mid to late week.
Best potential looks to be Thursday afternoon. Given the setup
aloft and a few progged soundings showing steep low level lapse
rates, this certainly has the feel of low topped rain and snow
showers.

The pattern mid to late week is certainly a cold one, with forecast
low temperatures in the 20s Wednesday night through at least Friday
night. Thus, this could be impactful for any areas with sensitive
vegetation early in the season.

Upper low continues to spin to our northeast across portions of
Ontario and Quebec, with subsequent energy diving southeast, if not
this weekend, then early next week at some point. Thus, looks
like we remain relatively cool and unsettled in the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Showers are becoming more widespread, and this continues
overnight. Best chance for TSRA will continue to be at TVC/MBL,
with isolated TSRA developing just west of them over Lake MI.
Cigs/vsbys will worsen, with MVFR cigs becoming widespread.
Expected IFR cigs overnight into Tue morning at CIU/PLN/MBL.
Conditions gradually improve Tuesday.

Gusty se winds weaken somewhat this evening, veering sw toward
morning and nw later Tuesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345-
     347>349.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT early this morning for LHZ346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT early this morning for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JZ