577
FXUS63 KAPX 221709
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
109 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances of showers develop tonight.

- Trending rather rainy in the northern half of the CWA
  Wednesday night through Friday before rain and thunder chances
  spread over the rest of the area Friday through Friday night.

- Major temperature contrast Thursday and Friday with cooler
  50s and lower 60s north and upper 60s to perhaps 75+ south.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

13Z surface analysis shows the occluded low that crossed Upper
Michigan Monday afternoon now over western Quebec (1003mb)...
1022mb high over the Ohio Valley ridging northward into the
Upper Lakes. Cold/occluded front arcs from North Dakota/
Minnesota into western Iowa/Kansas. Residual cloud cover across
eastern Upper mixing into a Cu deck...clouds associated with
warm advection spreading across Wisconsin along with a
northwest-southeast oriented band of light rain (some earlier
convection).

Expect upstream clouds to overspread the area during the latter
half of the afternoon...can`t rule out some sprinkles or light
rain showers late across northwest Lower. Winds are still a bit
gusty over far eastern Upper/northeast Lower but expect those to
diminish later as gradient weakens. Afternoon highs in the
40s-lower 50s across eastern Upper...and mostly 50s to lower 60s
across the southeast quarter of the forecast area (away from the
Great Lakes).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...Small chances of showers tonight...

Narrow ridge axis is building into the Western Great Lakes region in
the wake of low pressure slowly lift NE away from Michigan early
this morning. Residual shower activity continues to gradually
diminish in response to building subsidence and the arrival of drier
low level air. Temps are generally holding in the mid to upper 30s.

After a few lingering light rain/snow showers early this morning
across portions of Northern Lower Michigan...remaining low clouds
will gradually exit from SW to NE out of our CWA with the departing
low pressure system. However...our period of sunshine during mid to
late morning will be relatively brief as additional low/mid clouds
move into our CWA from SW to NE this afternoon and evening along and
ahead of an approaching warm front. Small chances of light showers
will develop tonight as the warm front lifts into Northern Michigan.
Precip type will be mainly rain...but a few wet snowflakes may mix
in from time to time as temps cool into the 30s after sunset.

High temps this afternoon will warm mainly into the 50s across our
CWA...with a few low 60s near Saginaw Bay. Low temps tonight will
cool back into the mid 30s to near 40 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 216 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Forecast Details:

Warm frontal boundary will be clearing the region through Wednesday
morning, resulting in any lingering cloud cover clearing as an
occluded area of surface low pressure slowly plods eastward across
the north end of Lake Superior. Result will be a sharp warmup across
the region... with temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s in the eastern
Yoop and upper 60s to lower 70s across northern lower (50s Lake
Huron shores).

Aforementioned surface low will largely wash out near Cochrane,
Ontario, leading to the frontal orientation becoming parallel with
the mean flow as it intrudes from Green Bay northeast into the
eastern Yoop Wednesday evening / night. Shower coverage will
increase in these areas as the front becomes stationary, and holds
in the vicinity of the Straits through Friday morning. Still
anticipating quite the contrast between north and south as a pretty
stellar thermal gradient materializes. Cloudier and showery weather
seems likely in the eastern Yoop and the farthest north counties of
northern lower Thursday and Friday as it seems like a lock to be
north of the front in these areas.

South of the front, more peeks of sunshine and a sharply warmer
airmass will be in place, which will generally lead to somewhere in
the vicinity of the M-32 corridor seeing a dramatic increase in
temperatures as one goes south Thursday... in the order of low-to-
mid 70s (upper 70s in Gladwin, Ogemaw, and Roscommon Cos?).
Certainly still a tricky temp forecast, so more details to be had.
Surface low pressure then develops across the Plains and moves into
the southern Lakes along the front, forcing the boundary through the
region, bringing much more widespread shower and perhaps thunder
activity to the area through at least Friday evening.

The front looks to clear some time Friday night into Saturday
morning. So as it stands, the weekend looks dry aside from the early
hours of Saturday, albeit with cooler temps... highs Saturday in the
50s, increasing to mid 50s (north) to mid-upper 60s south for Sunday
under sunnier skies. Long term guidance is bullish on another system
working into the Lakes to start next week, which should pull in
another intrusion of warmer air (possibly another round of highs
well into the 70s for some Monday).

Normal highs: 53-63, normal lows: 31-40

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Clouds will thicken and lower later this afternoon and into the
evening hours from west to east...but expect ceilings to remain
VFR. Some sprinkles or light rain showers are expected in the
21Z-09Z time frame...again the threat ending from west to east.
Clouds are expected to clear from west to east after 06Z...with
just some high clouds expected Wednesday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JPB