449
FXUS63 KAPX 231455
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
955 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures trending upward

- Mixed precipitation/rain chances through midweek

- Breezy and potentially mild at least Monday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Overcast mid/high clouds cover the region, ahead of a shortwave
trof sliding across the central/southern lakes. A bit of a
disconnect between moisture/forcing; better mid-level omega/
ascent slips just to our south, but better moisture is up here
in northern MI. Swath of mostly virga is making inroads into
northern MI. Actual light snow is back in central/western upper
MI and adjoining parts of far northern WI. A few spots dip down
to 2-3SM vsbys, but most are higher. But a further uptick in
mid-level theta-e advection should allow the warm advection wing
to become more prominent, resulting in periodic light snow
today over northern lower MI and western parts of Chip/Mack Cos.
Maybe a few spots see up to half an inch of new snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Cold anomalies continue to get shunted off to our northeast as upper
level flow regime begins to take on a much more zonal flavor across
central NOAM...allowing air of more Pacific origin to increase its
influence across the region. Still some remnant northwest flow aloft
as northeast NOAM centered troughing relaxes, with embedded low
amplitude shortwave troughs dropping southeast into the upper Great
Lakes. One such wave brought a round of non-impactful snow showers
this past evening, with yet another wave and attendant area of light
snow showers dropping into the upper Mississippi Valley. Temperature
continue to trend milder, with current readings mostly still in the
20s.

Weak area of high pressure set to slide into and through the area
early this morning, quickly followed by the next upstream low
amplitude wave this afternoon. Much stronger wave and attendant strong
surface reflection expected to dive across Ontario and Lake Superior
later tonight, dragging a southward extending surface trough into the
western Great Lakes in the process.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends through tonight and addressing any light
snow/wintry mix potential.

Details:

Interesting little set-up expected today with arrival of that wave,
with guidance derived soundings showing deep saturation within a
weakly forced environment. Definitely expecting to see some
flurries/pockets of light snow develop from west to east today,
especially targeting areas south of the big bridge. Will introduce
this potential to the forecast, with any accumulations expecting to
be minor. Abundant clouds and that snow will throttle back on the
warming potential some, but still looking at widespread highs in the
lower and middle 30s this afternoon.

Top-down thinning of the moisture this evening, ending any lingering
snow concerns. Respectable surge of forcing and moisture set to
arrive later tonight ahead of that next surface trough, with
juxtaposition of best forcing/moisture this time targeting areas
north of the Mighty Mac (even better forcing and moisture further
north). Thermal profiles support initial snow followed by a
transition to a light wintry mix...to include rain. Any snow/wintry
mix amounts look to remain light, and again especially centered on
areas of eastern upper Michigan. While may see some slick travel
develop early Monday morning, definitely does not look impactful nor
widespread enough to warrant any type of headline.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

NW-SE oriented baroclinic zone setting up across the continent,
albeit high-bridged...with 1019mb surface high over Manitoba...and
1030mb high over the Gulf Coast states. Surface reflection of this
BCZ stretches from northern Alberta down into the International
Falls region...where a surface low is trying to spin up with a bit
of energy. BCZ/cold front continues to loop down into Lake
Superior...then back up into northern Quebec. Cold air north of
this...with an upper low settling into NE Canada near the top of
Hudson Bay. Some weak warm advection and attendant light snow into
the central US/Upper Midwest...but warmest air and surface warm
front remain out over the central Plains...ahead of SW-NE oriented
trough axis stretching from the Desert SW into Manitoba. Decent feed
of Pacific moisture into the northern tier of the country...with
120+kt upper jet poking into the PacNW with pwats approaching
1.5inches out there.

Active weather to be the norm through the upcoming week...beginning
relatively mild for early week with a BCZ lingering in the area; a
couple PV maxima riding this boundary through the Midwest Sunday
night/Monday...and Monday night/Tuesday. A sharp upper trough looks
to develop for midweek over the central US...driving a system
eastward through the Midwest. Colder air expected to ooze into the
area behind this trough axis as it sharpens up crossing the
region...potentially turning the lake machine back on after a brief
break. Beyond this...ridging looks to build into the Upper Midwest
ahead of another sharp trough diving down from central Canada. Quite
a bit of uncertainty attm in the evolution of this feature and its
attendant surface reflection for the end of the week...but will keep
an eye on potential for some activity, assuming guidance trends
continue to support this idea in future runs.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Mixed precip/rain, breezy, mild temps on Monday...Best forcing
remain north Monday morning/afternoon, closer to the front and
shortwave aloft. Still looks like we strip out a lot of the deeper
moisture in the wake of the warm front early in the day...though low
level moisture looks to hang on across the area to some degree, per
guidance soundings. Think this is a result of snowmelt with SW winds
and advection of above-freezing dewpoints into the region...which
could certainly keep temps from reaching their fullest potential
across a great deal of the area (if we remain
cloudy/foggy/grungy...and do have concerns we may end up more foggy
than currently expected). Thermal profiles attm suggest much of the
area should largely transition to rain Monday morning, even with the
low-level moisture around...with greatest shot of a wintry mix
hanging over the Yoop/Straits region through the day, closer to the
colder air/boundary. Any snow that does accumulate (not expecting
much attm) will be wet/heavy/sloppy.

SW winds should ramp up as this potent PV max zips by
Monday morning in particular. Pressure gradient supports sustained
winds in the realm of 10-15kts, potentially bumping up around 20kts
at times. Good confidence in gusts of 20-30kts, esp during the
morning hours. Does appear we have a decent LLJ (40+kts at 850mb),
though not sure how well this will mix down. Dry slot punching in
during the morning may be the best shot at downward momentum
transfer and this idea coming to fruition...if it`s able to punch
through the stagnant low-levels...and if this ends up being the
case...certainly not impossible there could be a period of wind
advisory-level gusts Monday morning...though potential attm appears
to remain low.

Mixed precip chances continue into midweek...think there is a shot
at some nuisance drizzle/freezing drizzle/mix with the PV niblet
passing by to our south Monday night as temps try to fall back below
freezing after dark...though the better chances for precipitation
should remain well to our south. Next best chance for precip will be
warm advection action Wednesday ahead of the system. With potential
for the BCZ to be to our south by this time...think there may be a
bit better concern for freezing rain to try to slip in late Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning with this system than the others...which
certainly bears watching going forward...along with the potential
for wet snow/mix during the day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Band of MVFR producing clouds and even some flurries/very light
snow showers expected to impact the taf locations today. Any
snow accumulations should remain light...likely well under an
inch. Improvement expected tonight as cigs increase. May see a
period of late night wind shear as low level jet overspreads the
region. Light winds today, with winds become a bit gusty out of
the southwest late tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EST
     Monday for LMZ344>346.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...MSB