004
FXUS63 KAPX 231723
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
123 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures into the weekend along with slowly
  increasing shower/storm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Kind of a typical mid-summer large scale upper level flow regime
across NOAM...consisting of western Conus centered upper level
ridge/heat dome and broad northeast NOAM centered troughing.
Michigan of course remains right under the ridge/trough interface,
featuring primarily west to northwest flow aloft. Large area of
lower lakes centered high pressure dominating the surface conditions
across much of the Great Lakes, bringing with it dry and seasonably
mild weather to the Northwoods. Southeast dropping cold front well
to our north in northern Ontario, kicking off a few showers and
thunderstorms along and just a bit ahead of it.

Upper level flow regime described above essentially remains locked
in place for the entirety of this forecast period. While this will
likely prevent any widespread wet weather as best Gulf moisture
plume remains detached to our south, passing southeast diving waves
will drum up occasional shower and storm chances through the period.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing those periodic chances or showers
and storms.

Details:

After some seasonably chilly temperatures tonight, Friday is
shaping up to be a just about perfect summer day...with near normal
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s under plenty of sunshine.
Temperatures continue to slowly warm heading into the weekend, with
widespread highs in the 80s by Sunday. Weak shortwave trough and its
attendant surface reflection expected to work into the area
Saturday, with an eventual completed detachment of mid level support
likely allowing its surface component to "wash out" on Sunday. While
large scale forcing is weak at best, diurnally-driven instability
support and some modest pre-frontal moisture pooling will bring the
threat for at least a few showers/storms Saturday into Saturday
night. Not currently anticipating any high impact weather with these
storms given such limited deep layer support.

Pretty decent mid-range guidance agreement that next southeast
diving and likely a bit more robust shortwave visits our area Sunday
night into early next week. Could see a bit more robust convective
activity with this wave given what looks to be better low and mid
level wind fields. Current SPC graphics suggest best severe
potential will slice west and south of the Northwoods, with
conceptual models also agreeing with this idea. Will of course need
to look out for some isolated areas of heavier rain, especially
where those more moist soil conditions reside (parts of northwest
lower Michigan). Plenty of time to work out these details in the
coming days. Current trends support a relatively uneventful period
of weather heading into the middle of next week. Airmass source
region continues to look to be mostly from Canada heading through
next week, with no direct tap to western heat dome. This should keep
our temperatures well within the range of what is considered normal
heading through the last week of July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR. Breezy west to west-sothwest winds this afternoon diminish
in the evening. Southwest flow builds back through Friday
morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345-
     346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-
     342-344.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...HAD