182
FXUS63 KAPX 250347
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1147 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Warming temperatures through the weekend with increasing
humidity.

- Scattered shower and storm chances over the weekend, better
  storm chances Monday with severe storms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

A fairly typical mid summer upper level pattern with 598 dam
ridge over the desert southwest, with downstream troughing over
the northeast CONUS. Generally west to northwest flow aloft for
the Great Lakes, with several embedded shortwaves producing at
least scattered shower and storm chances. Gulf moisture is
generally cut off from the upper flow over the northern CONUS,
which will likely limit precipitation coverage over the weekend.
A more robust shortwave with deeper Pacific moisture, will
bring much better precipitation chances early next week.
Temperatures will be on the way up, as thermal ridging builds to
our west.

A weak shortwave trough and attendant surface reflection begins
to slide out of Lake Superior and western upper late tonight,
spreading more clouds into northern parts of the area late. Not
as cool as the last few nights, with still fairly comfortable
lows in the 50s to lower 60s (warmest near the coasts and parts
of upper Michigan). PWATs increase on Saturday as moisture pools
around the weak surface front, with scattered diurnal
shower/storm chances. This front washes out across the area
Saturday night, as the main forcing remains rooted to the west.
Some hints of a gradually eastward expanding EML plume on Sunday
as a stronger shortwave slides over the top of the ridge to our
west. We remain fairly capped across the Great Lakes and it
remains to be seen how much diurnal activity will occur.

The much better chance for showers and storms comes Sunday night
into Monday night as the aforementioned more robust wave moves into
the Great Lakes.  On Monday, PWAT`s surge toward 200% of normal,
combined with a warm low level airmass and favorable upper
level kinematics in the exit region of a jet streak. Organized
storms possible over parts of the Great Lakes with damaging
winds being the main threat.

Quieter weather returns through midweek as surface high pressure
moves into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Dry and VFR through the rest of tonight with light winds. Swath
of mid to upper level clouds approach from the west into this
morning, along with a few showers. Have VCSH in KCIU as a result,
but low confidence overall. Southwest winds increase through the
day today, with gusts 15 to 20 knots. Increased moisture may bring
lower CIGs later Saturday night, along with -SHRA and TSRA chances.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...JLD