634
FXUS63 KAPX 191033
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
633 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Air quality continues to slowly improve today.

-Showers and thunderstorms return Monday night through Tuesday.

-Seasonably cool weather with mainly precipitation-free conditions
beyond the midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Longwave midlevel ridging pattern remains positioned over the
western two thirds of the CONUS today with large scale closed
midlevel low pressure centered over Northern Quebec. The Great Lakes
region remains under the influence of the aforementioned low with a
Canadian Air mass influence. Cool(er) northwest flow combined with
surface high pressure keeping weather quiet today besides the
continuation of upstream wildfire smoke keeping elevated levels of
poor air quality.

At the same time, a shortwave currently over British Columbia will
develop surface low pressure and make its way toward Northern
Ontario Monday night. Latest guidance hints at the system occluding
over the the Great Lakes region with enough instability to produce a
round of widespread beneficial showers and storms. Cool northwest
air will build behind the system this Wednesday, resulting in
climatologically cool conditions beyond the weekend. Additional
chances of precipitation remain in the forecast due to embedded
waves as they pivot around the longwave trough, but weak forcing and
limited amounts of moisture will keep QPF amounts low as we head
into late July.

Forecast Details:

Sunday: Surface high pressure will be centered directly over Lake
Michigan this morning. Quiet conditions will persist today with
light winds and highs in the upper 70s. The only concern is the
continuation of the well-advertised wildfire smoke from upstream
Ontario. Latest visible satellite imagery along with reports show
fires receding combined with atmospheric mixing to result in lighter
amounts of smoke density for our region. The Air Quality Alert will
continue through today, but again, conditions will be noticeably
better compared to  Thursday and Friday.

Monday and Tuesday: Main focus of the forecast remains on storm
potential Monday evening from the aforementioned approaching
shortwave. Latest hi-rez guidance depicts plenty of instability and
moisture ahead of the frontal passage to support showers and
thunderstorms. Model soundings of deep warm moisture, inverted-v
profiles, and long skinny CAPE favor storms producing strong winds
and localized heavy rainfall. Two biggest things working against
convection remain late evening overnight timing when instability
tends to decrease and surface levels appear relatively stable. If
convection can be organized, localized areas of well over an inch of
QPF and strong wind gusts remain possible.

Wednesday through Saturday Outlook: Midlevel pattern remains mostly
unchanged the remainder of the week with ridging over the western
two thirds of the CONUS and the northeastern US receiving a more
Canadian air mass influence due to troughing over northeast North
America. The majority of the week beyond Wednesday will remain dry,
but weak embedded height waves will continue periodic chances of
precipitation with low amounts of QPF. Temperatures however will be
cool for mid to late July as post frontal northwest winds leave
highs on Wednesday in the 60s. Temperatures slowly build back into
the upper 70s/low 80s the rest of the week as midlevel heights
slowly rise toward the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Any fog/mist/smoke visibility restricting combination should mix out
quickly this morning. Still looking at some minor vis restrictions
with smoke today and tonight, but with minimal impacts expected.
Otherwise, just a few high based cumulus and some passing upper
level cirrus at times today into this evening. By later tonight
moisture does begin to increase from the west, bringing some mid
level clouds...especially across eastern upper Michigan. May see a
few showers fall out of this cloud deck, but nothing significant is
anticipated. Light winds through the duration, with local lake
breeze development this afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MSB