552
FXUS63 KAPX 220506
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
106 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend and increasingly humid through Thursday. High
  temperatures into the upper 80s and 90s Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Chances for showers/storms return Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level ridging continues to build
across the western Great Lakes today through midweek. Surface high
pressure overhead today gradually begins to shift east during the
day Tuesday.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated
through the short term forecast period. Afternoon cu gives way to
wisps of high clouds this evening into tonight. Another seasonably
cool night on tap with lows ranging from the upper 40s and low 50s
inland to near 60 at the immediate lakeshores. Mostly sunny skies
again tomorrow with temperatures climbing a few degrees above today.
Highs ranging from the upper 70s to low/mid-80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Pattern Forecast: Ridging aloft continues to build across the Great
Lakes through midweek. Focus largely revolves around any potential
shortwaves rounding the crest of that ridge through Wednesday night.
A more notable wave progged to arrive Thursday, ultimately expected
to result in lowering heights locally and an eventual cold frontal
passage late Thursday/Thursday night. Lots of uncertainty with
respect to the details, but safe to a say a warmer, more humid and
potentially active stretch of weather for the midweek time frame.

Occasionally active weather may continue across the northern tier of
the CONUS into the weekend as longer range trends support a heat
dome building across the southern and southwestern U.S. with more
active flow on the northern periphery from the northern Plains into
the Great Lakes.

Forecast Details: Not a ton of confidence in how the Tuesday night
through Thursday period plays out, but an increasingly hot and humid
airmass will certainly support increased potential for showers and
storms at times. Latest trends suggest a low probability for
upstream convective development Tuesday afternoon/evening to make a
run toward the eastern U.P. and tip of the mitt very late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. This would pose a locally heavy
rain threat and perhaps a gusty wind threat if it were to pan out.

Heat/humidity build Wednesday with highs expected to range from the
upper 80s to low 90s for most. Dew points climbing into the low and
even some mid-70s by Wednesday afternoon. Combined with PWs progged
above climatological max (ensemble means nearing 1.90") yields
confidence in a very juicy airmass to be in place. While we become
increasingly unstable through the day, current confidence lies in a
solution that remains largely capped with little convective
development...at least across northern lower. Somewhat better
chances for showers/storms at times across the U.P. and Straits
region that`s tied closer to better forcing with incoming
shortwave(s) expected to be rounding the apex of overhead ridging.
SPC`s Day 3 SWO with a Slight Risk over northern Lake Michigan, the
Straits and points north across the U.P.

Another hot and very humid day Thursday with highs a handul of
degrees warmer than Wednesday. Best potential for heat indices to
exceed 100F is across downsloping areas of northeast lower where air
temps should make a run into the mid-90s. Additional shower/storm
chances appears highest once again across northern areas early in
the day before sagging south with time in advance of more notable
shortwave and sfc cold front. Should be able to become plenty
unstable with a crude look at bulk shear yielding vicinity 30 kts in
place by Thursday afternoon giving credence to a continued strong-
severe storm threat. Locally heavy rain also a good bet as well
given potential for torrential rain rates in any thunderstorms.

Not a ton of relief from heat/humidity post cold front Thursday.
Suppose it`ll be "cooler" Friday into the weekend, but still above
normal and sticky by northern MI standards. Occasional periods of
continued active weather look possible as nearly 600dM 500mb heat
dome builds over the southern states with an active pattern on the
northern periphery across the northern tier of the CONUS into
southern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

VFR conditions through the period under just some passing high
and mid level clouds. Light winds with local lake breeze
development this afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...MSB