861
FXUS63 KAPX 072328
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
728 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front arrives Sunday night, bringing showers and cooler
  conditions to kick off next work week.

- More seasonal temperatures with perhaps additional shower chances
  at times to end the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Rather pleasant early summer day across the northern Great Lakes,
courtesy of surface high pressure and slowly building mid level
heights. Attendant deep layer subsidence and a moderating overhead
airmass bringing with them hazy sun-filled skies (haze courtesy of
lingering smoke from Canada wildfires) and temperatures punching up
into the 70s. Evidence of significant change set to take place
however, with moisture laden southern wave working its way east
across Missouri, and a much more robust northern stream wave digging
southeast across the prairie lands of Canada. While the former looks
to maintain its east course and safely miss us to the south, the
latter with help rapidly amplify the long-wave pattern...eventually
centering deep low pressure across the northern Lakes early next
work week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature/cloud trends and addressing Sunday afternoon shower
(storm?) evolution ahead of approaching cold front.

Details:

Another pleasant night expected across the Northwoods, with just
some increasing clouds with time...courtesy of that south passing
southern wave and initial stages of upper level moisture advection
ahead of the digging northern energy. Airmass will continue to
modify, keeping overnight lows mostly in the 50s.

Sunday morning looks to remain dry, with shower chances gradually
increasing during the afternoon as moisture advection continues to
increase in maturing southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold
front. Best shower chances arrive Sunday evening into the early
overnight as what looks to be a fairly well organized band of
showers spreads west to east across the region with the passing
front. Rather aggressive deep layer forcing/low level forced
convergence within a respectably moist environment (precipitable
water values exceed an inch) supports this scenario...with
probabilities increasing most areas see at least some rain Sunday
night. Window for decent showers is a short one, likely on the order
of only a few hours at any one particular location...but some rather
robust rainfall rates are possible with any more organized deep
convection. Still appears to be just enough instability within the
strongly forced environment to drive at least a few embedded
thunderstorms...but nothing overly significant expected.

Still mild, with highs on Sunday well up into the 70s away from the
big waters, and lows Sunday night mostly in the lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Main feature of interest initially is deep troughing set to work
slowly east across the Great Lakes Monday through Tuesday. Flow
regime gradually relaxes thereafter, with some evidence of building
central NOAM ridging as we head into next weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends through the period and addressing additional
shower chances...especially Monday and Tuesday.

Details:

Slowly passing troughing and attendant cool/moist conditions aloft
within persistent cyclonic flow will keep the threat for at least
some showers Monday and Tuesday. Not looking at a washout, but
periodic bouts of showers expected...likely reaching max
organization Monday afternoon when diurnal contributions will be
maximized, overhead conditions are at there coolest, and with
additional support from a passing wave within overhead trough axis.
Speaking of that diurnal support...attendant low level cape
generation may be just enough to drive a few embedded Monday
afternoon thunderstorms...most likely across northeast lower
Michigan. Again, nothing significant expected. High temperatures
will trend cooler, with highs Monday in the lower and middle 70s and
readings on Tuesday topping out only in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

Still plenty of uncertainty through the remainder of the week as
large scale flow regime slowly de-amplifies. Still looking for what
should be a fairly active thermal/moisture gradient to develop
somewhere across the region...with latest trends (and simple
northern Michigan warm-season convective climatology) suggesting a
more south-displaced baroclinic axis across the southern Lakes/Ohio
Valley as Canada high pressure gradually exerts more influence.
Simply something to monitor in the coming days. Of more certainty is
a moderating trend, with highs mostly in the 70s to lower 80s and
lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Mainly VFR into Sunday morning, though a bit hazy. The threat
for SHRA/perhaps TSRA will increase late Sunday at CIU/PLN/
TVC/MBL. A better chance for rain will wait until evening. Light
winds tonight, a se to s breeze becomes a touch gusty Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JZ