565
FXUS63 KAPX 180957
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
557 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon

- Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures through Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Mid level ridging centered south to north right across the heart of
the area early this morning, with its surface reflection centered a
bit southeast across the eastern Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. Combination of the above resulting in another quiet
and clear night across the Northwoods. Above features look to
maintain control of our weather through tonight as they work their
way only slowly off to the east.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing more fire weather concerns.

Details:

Mostly sunny/clear skies will continue across northern Michigan
today and tonight. Combination of increasing southwest return flow
on the backside of that surface high and that ample sunshine will
help tack on a few more degrees to temperatures today, with highs
topping out well into the 60s...with perhaps a few areas making a
run at 70 across northeast lower (readings that are 10 or more
degrees above normal for today`s date). Much like yesterday,
aggressive mixing out of low level moisture this morning and those
increasingly gusty winds will result in some elevated fire weather
concerns this afternoon. Maintenance of at least some light
southwest winds tonight will keep temperatures somewhat elevated,
with lows by early Saturday morning ranging through the 30s and into
the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

No precipitation is expected across much of the forecast area
through at least Tuesday. The one exception may be across eastern
upper where there could be a shower or two Saturday night from a
weakening and moisture starved cold front passing across the area.
Otherwise, the theme will continue to be the unseasonably warm
conditions which are likely to continue over the next 7 to 10 days
with the exception of a brief cool down during the middle of next
week. This cool down is expected to be short lived which will be
behind a surface cold front which is on track to move through the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Extended guidance is trending
drier with this front so will keep pops in the chance category for
now (we could definitely use the rain though). It will remain breezy
for the most part leading to continued elevated fire danger. Highs
of well into the 60s to the mid 70s are expected through Tuesday
(which is upwards of 20 degrees above normal!). A few record highs
will likely even be challenged next Monday. Highs for Wednesday and
Thursday will be mainly in the 50s (which will still be near normal
or even slightly above normal).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

VFR conditions under mostly sunny/clear skies through tonight.
Southwest winds become a touch gusty today, with winds becoming
light again tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-
     342-344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB