571
FXUS63 KAPX 061811
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
111 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers this afternoon through Saturday. Combination of
rain and rapid snowmelt could result in some local flooding
concerns.

- Small risk for some embedded stronger thunderstorms tonight into
early Saturday.

- Well above normal temperatures to continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

True Spring-like pattern continues to evolve across NOAM at this
early hour, with deep layer southerly flow driving north across the
central Conus ahead of rather impressive mid and upper level
troughing digging steadily east through the Intermountain West. Best
moisture advection has bifurcated the state early this morning, with
one axis running the length of the lower Ohio Valley...with the
other spiking north within that deep southerly flow into the central
and northern Plains. Moisture advection across our region of the
lower level variety, as noted by the northeast expanding stratus
deck. Those moist low levels...enhanced by previous days snowmelt
     has resulted in the development of some patchy fog. Those clouds
have kept temperatures running well above early March normals, with
current readings mostly in the 30s.

Full column moisture advection ratchets up significantly today as a
piece of that western trough breaks off and rotates into the
northern Plains. Backward run trajectory analysis shows a direct
connection to western Gulf of America moisture...helping spike
precipitable water values well in excess of an inch by later this
afternoon into Saturday morning. Such strong moisture advection
within increasing deep layer dynamics looks to bring some rather
widespread wet weather into our area this afternoon into Saturday
morning.

Upper level flow regime looks to become much more zonal in flavor
heading into early next week, locking any real cold air well to our
north as much modified Pacific air overspreads much of the northern
Conus. Still some hints for some northern and southern stream
interaction toward the middle of next week...perhaps drumming up our
next significant weather maker in the process. We shall see.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Primary focus centers on the near term, specifically addressing
heavy rain/flooding potential and severe thunderstorm possibilities
through Saturday morning.

Details:

No doubt we are looking at some wet and downright warm early Spring
weather today into Saturday morning as strong H8 centered low level
jet races north into the Lakes region. Simple breadth of moisture
advection within increasing isentropic upglide regime should have
little trouble spreading a fairly organized area of showers rapidly
northeast across northern Michigan this afternoon into early this
evening. Mid level lapse rates within a completely saturated
environment our limited at best, suggesting any thunder chances with
this lead area of rain will be minimal. Will likely see a break in
most organized showers heading through this evening as best forced
convergence on nose of low level jet and greatest corridor of
moisture convergence exits stage right. Upstream convection firing
along eastward moving cold front to our southwest makes a run into
our area later tonight. Think this will be our best opportunity for
some thunder as plume of what will be by then primarily elevated
instability moves overhead. Simple late timing and increasing
disconnect from low level instability axis to our south suggests
lines of convection steadily weakening as they move across Lake
Michigan. However, shear through the vertical remains
impressive...upwards of 50 knots through the 0-6km layer. Suppose a
isolated severe wind gust or two is possible with any more organized
deeper convection. Latest SPC day 2 convective outlook notes this
possibility...placing nearly all of northern lower Michigan within
marginal severe risk wording.

Other concern centers on local flooding possibilities. While snow
coverage has decreased substantially across southern sections of our
area, interior areas north of M-72 up across eastern upper Michigan
still have several inches of snow. Snowmelt should be ultra
efficient tonight into Saturday morning as temperatures climb up
into the 50s and lower 60s across northern lower Michigan, and into
the 40s north of the big bridge. Dewpoint values will be only
slightly lower, exacerbating the snowmelt. Combine that with rain
totals by Saturday morning nearing or exceeding half an inch in many
places, and little doubt we will have some significant ponding in
poor or clogged drainage areas. However, definitely not seeing any
widespread flooding concerns at this time.

Cold front works steadily east across the area Saturday, taking the
primary shower threat east along with it. However, will likely still
be dealing with some lighter showers during the afternon as
deformation axis spreads overhead. High temperatures ranging from
the upper 40s EUP to the lower 60s across parts of northeast lower
Michigan will occur early, with readings steadily falling through
the afternoon.

Biggest story heading into next week remains the exceedingly warm
temperatures, with strong support we see highs back up into the 60s
across at least parts of the area on Monday. Uncertainty is high
heading into the middle of the week as cold air attempts to filter
back south into the region. Some hints of a messy mix of winter
weather arriving Tuesday into Wednesday. Again, uncertainty remains
high...both with regards to southward extent of cold air and
potential for southern and northern stream interaction. Changes are
expected, and likely will be many. Again, plenty of time to adjust
accordingly with future forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Grungy, showery, conditions through much of this period with
embedded thunder tonight. First round of -RA/-SHRA this
afternoon and evening, with another round later tonight into Sat
morning. Best chance for VCTS tonight into Sat morning between
roughly 07 and 12Z. CIGs largely between 002-010 through the
entire period with VSBYs fluctuating between 1 and 3 SM, locally
lower at times within denser FG. In addition, lower level winds
increase with wind shear between 30 and 45 knots this evening
and tonight across the terminals.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JLD