179
FXUS63 KAPX 071929
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
229 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shot of Winter spreads across the area later this weekend into
early next week, bringing sharply colder weather and the potential
for accumulating lake effect snow.

- Some modification still expected as we head into the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Fairly deep low pressure racing east north of Lake Huron early this
afternoon, with its attendant occluded front getting set to exit
into northern Lake Huron. Primary rain band has now exited east
along with these features. However, secondary cold front tied to
primary mid level shortwave now working into the region, helping
kick off some more spotty showers and areas of drizzle/mist across
parts of northern Michigan. Still a fairly "mild" day, with current
readings in the 40s to lower 50s.

Shortwave and its attendant cold front will continue to race east,
replaced by weak surface high by later tonight into the start of the
weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing any light precipitation potential.

Details:

Shower and drizzle threat expected to come to an end heading through
this evening as high pressure builds into the Northwoods. These dry
conditions look to prevail through much of Saturday, with some
increasing north to northeast flow perhaps enticing a bit of a lake
response by later Saturday. Definitely nothing significant, with any
light rain and snow showers likely confined to coastal areas of
northwest lower and up by Whitefish Point in eastern upper Michigan.
Step-down process to much advertised colder weather regime kicks off
tonight and Saturday. Looking at lows tonight in the middle 20s to
lower 30s...with highs Saturday in the mid/upper 30s to lower 40s.
Winds will be fairly light however, negating any real wind chill
factor.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Deep troughing develops across the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday,
with the primary driver of this troughing centered on strong
shortwave trough expected to dive straight south out of northern
Ontario later Sunday. Secondary energy racing east across the lower
Lakes/northern Ohio Valley Saturday night will only help the
amplification process. This troughing will open a direct avenue for
some rather chilly Canadian air to drop right across the region into
early next week. Still strong support for a gradual relaxation of
the upper level flow pattern heading into the middle of next week as
core of deep troughing and attendant coldest temperature anomalies
rotate off to the northeast.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing potential for accumulating snow
later Saturday night into early next week.

Details:

Confidence continues to increase that primary axis of deformation
driven snows with that southern Lakes wave Saturday night will stay
mostly south of our area. However, maturing north to northeast flow
within the increasing pressure gradient will likely allow the
development of lake effect off the big waters heading through the
night. Said flow direction targets areas west of Grand Traverse Bay
for better lake potential...as well as parts of northeast lower
Michigan. Tougher call across eastern upper, with some support for
secondary surface trough/development of lake aggregate troughing to
focus brief axis of enhanced convergence into northwest Chippewa
County. Lack of better synoptic moisture contribution/forcing should
throttle back some on lake effect organization and intensity. Still,
wouldn`t be terribly surprised to see a few inches fall in parts of
Leelanau and Benzie Counties...as well as across far northwest
Chippewa County. Airmass cutting across northern Lake Huron is
noticeably drier...likely further negating snow accumulation
potential in northeast lower Michigan. While don`t foresee specific
headline criteria amounts, this being the first accumulating snow of
the season does complicate matters some. Definitely something to
continue to monitor.

Pattern recognition with expected trough placement now strongly
supports this remaining a primarily north flow event Sunday into
Monday. Coldest air yet this season (H8 temperatures fall into the
negative lower teens) will no doubt entice a vigorous lake response,
further supported by guidance derived soundings showing convective
cloud depths up to and over 10kft and lift centered through the
dendritic growth layer. Exact wind direction becomes utmost
important of course...and with that now anticipated more northerly
flow component, the target area really centers on areas near and
southwest of Grand Traverse Bay. Latest statistical probabilities
show values up and over 75 percent for at least 4 inches of snow by
Monday evening...with the greatest likelihood centered on the
highlands of Leelanau and Benzie Counties. Eastern upper looks to
remain largely out of the equation Sunday and Monday with most
organized Lake Superior snows remaining to their west. Of course,
areas of more focused convergence axes to drive most intense lake
response are yet to be determined, but the potential for this to be
a higher impact event for those areas along and near the Leelanau
Peninsula is definitely still on the table. Otherwise, far bigger
story for a vast majority of the area will be the much colder
temperatures...with highs both Sunday and Monday remaining in the
30s...with lows Sunday night likely in the teens away from the big
waters. Gusty winds will only make it feel colder.

Main axis of trough and coldest temperatures expected to rotate out
of the region heading into the middle of next week. Still looking at
broad troughing aloft...supporting weak passing shortwaves and at
least some lake effect potential. Temperatures will slowly
moderate...with highs both Wednesday and Thursday likely reaching
into the 40s. We shall see.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Conditions will continue to slowly improve this afternoon
through tonight. Cloud cover will slowly lift while winds begin
to diminish shortly after 00Z tonight. A few VSCH remain
possible this afternoon and tonight as low pressure tracks
eastward, but all sites return to VFR categories after midnight
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SJC