952
FXUS63 KAPX 250941
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
541 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog this morning over much of northern MI

- Hazy skies today with seasonal temperatures

- Chances for showers and storms return Saturday, with hot and humid
temperatures Sunday and Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Radar shows some light showers over a few spots in central
lower MI this morning. These showers will continue to weaken and
dissipate over the next few hours. Current surface observations
show that a more moist air mass is still here this morning with
dew points in the low to mid 50s over the eastern upper
penisula and the high 60s low 70s over northern lower. Winds
near the surface have diminished, and with nocturnal inversions
temperatures will cool creating a dew point depression of 0 for
most places. Patchy dense fog will continue through a couple
hours after sunrise over most of northern lower and eastern
upper.

Skies will gradually clear later this morning after sunrise, however
smoke from the CAN wildfires will be present for most of the day
today over northern MI. High temperatures in the high 70s to mid 80s
today. Light north winds will continue to feed drier air into the
area starting mid morning, keeping the heat indices lower. A lake
breeze will form in the afternoon, reaching I-75 by the late
afternoon/evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

By midnight on Saturday, a stationary front sits over IA/IL/IN with
the upper high centered over the mid Atlantic and an upper shortwave
approaching the stationary front from the west. Convection will
likely be ongoing along the boundary, but will strengthen Saturday
morning. The stationary front will become a warm front and lift north
towards MI during the day Saturday. The upper shortwave will rotate
around the upper high as the center of the high begins to retrograde
west. A mid to upper jet of westerlies will stretch over northern MI
Saturday as southerly sfc winds build back in and return the moist
and unstable air mass. Modest shear and CAPE will creep northward
over the lower penisula Saturday afternoon, and return chances for
isolated to scattered showers and thunder storms. At this time,
chances for storms remains south of M-55 due to the warm front
continuing to the NE (over Lk Huron and beyond). A possible
scenario`s that a few stronger storms over SE and central MI
could continue north towards Gladwin and Arenac, producing
damaging wind gusts and hail.

Chances for shower activity exists for eastern upper Sunday, with
chances spreading to northern lower Monday morning. On and off
shower and storm activity will continue for most of northern MI
Tuesday as the bottom of broad upper level trough pushes into
the US over the northern plains and great lakes region.

It is still too early to tell if there will be severe threats
for storms Sunday and beyond. Temperatures will start to back
into the 80s with heat indices in the 90s Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Any lingering fog/mist/low clouds expected to burn off rather
quickly this morning. Looks like some smoke from Canada
wildfires will drift overhead today within otherwise clear
skies. Not sure how thick this smoke will be, so will continue
to simply carry 6 mile vis wording as a guess. Light winds with
perhaps some local lake breeze development this afternoon. May
see some patchy mist/fog develop again later tonight as winds
remain light/calm.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Air Quality Alert until 1 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ016>018-
     020>036-041-042-098-099.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ086>088-
     095>097.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MSB