163
FXUS63 KAPX 120402
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1102 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued rain/snow chances across parts of northern Michigan through
  this evening, turning to primarily rain later tonight through
  Wednesday.

- Drying/warming trend late this week.

- Renewed precipitation chances this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified upper-level trough axis is now
situated well downstream over Quebec/New England and off the
Atlantic Coast. While this has taken the coldest low-level thermal
trough axis along with it, a much weaker/subtle upstream shortwave
will reinforce another shot of cool air (albeit warmer than the last
couple of days) and continued precipitation chances through midweek.

Forecast Details: While radar returns from KAPX have been evident
since the pre-dawn hours this morning, have certainly started to
see some of that reach the ground across parts of northern MI
over the past few hours as we`ve slowly eroded away a pretty
impressive 825-450mb dry layer noted on APX`s 12z raob. Not a
whole lot of change to previous thinking with the bulk of
precipitation this afternoon/early evening falling across the
eastern U.P. -- enhanced by occasionally gusty southwest flow
off of Lake Michigan. Lighter precip across parts of northern
lower. Where precip does fall, p-type likely to be changeable
and dependent on elevation and precip intensity -- more snow
expected within heavier bursts and across the higher elevations
with more of a rain/snow mix or all rain near the immediate
shorelines. An inch or less of wet/sloppy snow expected across
the eastern U.P. away from the Lake MI/Huron shorelines through
mid-evening. Perhaps some localized minor accums across
northern lower.

Mid-evening onward, steadiest/most widespread precip is expected to
have exited with winds gradually veering more west-northwesterly
through the remainder of the night. Given continued marginal over-
lake instability and additional mid-level perturbation(s) providing
broader synoptic scale support, expecting lake induced/enhanced
showers to become more prevalent for the second half of the night
through Wednesday. Some of the steadier/heavier showers tonight may
again fall as snow, primarily across the higher terrain, with minor
accums possible. However, a transition to largely rain showers area-
wide will be the case -- amplified on Wednesday as near-surface
temps rise into the upper 30s and low 40s by Wednesday afternoon.

Overall, not much in the way of widespread impacts expected, but
some slushy/slick roads this afternoon through tonight not out of
the question across parts of northern Michgian.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Pattern Forecast: By Thursday, mid-upper level heights are expected
to be rising across the Great Lakes in response to upstream ridging
centered over the Rockies. This ridge axis makes slow, but steady,
eastward progress across the nation`s midsection through at least
the first half of the weekend. Attendant sfc high pressure expected
to be situated over the eastern half of the CONUS through this time
frame. Longer range signals point toward a deepening wave dropping
out of Canada into the western Lakes toward Sunday, likely renewing
precipitation chances and potentially bringing a return of cooler
air and additional lake induced rain/snow chances heading into next
week.

Day 3-7: While the bulk of lake induced rain/snow showers are
expected to be over with heading into Thursday, at least low PoPs
will continue downwind of Lake Superior in the eastern U.P. for the
first half of the day. A drying/warming trend area-wide thereafter
through at least Friday night. High temps Thursday and Friday
largely spanning the 40s area-wide with some low 50s possible near
the M-55 corridor.

By later Saturday into Sunday, attention turns upstream to a wave
digging across southern Canada/northern tier of the CONUS. Attendant
surface low pressure expected to drag a cold front across the region
this weekend. While some uncertainty exists with respect to potential
precip timing and coverage, renewed rain chances are expected
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Secondary cold front on
Sunday likely to provide a better push of cooler air with higher
probabilities for lake induced rain/snow showers to return late in
the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Currently most terminals are VFR with skies SCT-BKN AOA 2kft
with winds SW to W around 10kts with G15kts to G20kts. Winds
will shift more NW from now thru 12Z. Some WS of 270 at 30kts
around 2kft will last through 10Z for KCIU/KPLN/KAPN. Times of
MVFR cigs and vis are possible under showers. -SNRA anticipated
under shower activity. NW winds slightly strengthen after 16Z
as showers linger through the end of the period. Precipitation
will exit the area near the end of the period for northern lower
terminals, and shortly after for KCIU.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...ELD