730
FXUS63 KAPX 071052
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
552 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Light snow across northern lower today, with lake effect possible
 near Whitefish Point through the day.

-Cold tonight with subzero lows on the table across the interior.

-Several waves set to pass through the long term forecast
 period... specifically Monday night, Tuesday night - Wednesday,
 and again this weekend. Lake enhancement / lake effect possible
 at various times with these wave passages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 259 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Robust longwave troughing over eastern NOAM remains locked into
place... with a weak impulse currently over Wisconsin continuing to
be forced eastward by strong, cold west / northwesterly flow.
Weakening thermal gradient and lack of supporting jet dynamics will
essentially translate to a light snowfall across much of lower
Michigan through the morning hours... perhaps 1 to 2 inches of
accumulation, locally up to 3" along the Lake Michigan shores. In
the wake of this system, will see some light lake effect activity
across the NNW to NW flow snowbelts. Moisture is a bit lacking as
upstream subsidence intruding.

In addition, weak pressure gradient will continue to lead to land-
lake breeze shenanigans off Lake Superior today into tonight, which
may feed an additional 2 to 4 inches of snowfall across western
Chippewa County (think Paradise / Whitefish Point). Will have to
watch this feature closely... the theme from previous forecasts
still holds, as there is always potential for convergence driven
bands of snow / mesolow generation, but guidance doesn`t seem to
jump all over this idea... so will have to continue to keep a watch
out for that.

Meanwhile, big upstream 1030+ mb surface high with arctic origins
over the northern Plains and Canadian prairies will charge south and
east into the Great Lakes... which will eventually put an end to the
snow activity... with winds decoupling and skies clearing across
much of the area into tonight, save for the NW lower shoreline and
portions of eastern upper. As such, our natural "refrigeration
unit"... aka... the established snowpack... will be put into
overdrive across the interior of northern lower. While shoreline
locales probably stall out in the single digits into the teens...
interior locales seem like a solid bet to be below zero by Monday
morning. Wouldn`t be overly surprising to see the interior "icebox"
areas (Grayling, Mio, Atlanta) make a run at -10.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

The active wintry pattern continues its influence across the region
through the remainder of the forecast period.

Monday - Tuesday: Following what will likely be the coldest morning
of the young winter season thus far, we will trend right back into
an active regime with another quick moving clipper-like system
passing through the Great Lakes. Synoptic snowfall looks marginal at
best... most places probably wind up with a general 1 to 3 inches of
snow later Monday night into Tuesday. That being said... with the
cold locked into place, antecedent SSW flow looks to kick off a SSW
flow lake effect boundary off Lake Michigan that could set its
sights on Mackinac County (in particular, the western part of the
county) and perhaps far SW Chippewa. This area could see totals in
excess of 6 inches from this event. In the wake of the system...
perhaps some lingering westerly flow lake effect. Definitely one to
keep our eyes on.

Tuesday night - Thursday: No time to put our feet up just yet, as
another system... this time with a bit more beef to it... looks to
quickly pass through later Tuesday night into Wednesday, and could
deliver a bigger swath of snow to the region. Current probs for 4"
of accumulation through Wednesday evening sit at 60% across much of
the area, slightly lower in eastern upper... and touching 40% across
interior northern lower for totals reaching 6 inches across northern
lower. This system will have a superb warm advection surge to drive
the snowfall... so will have to watch thermodynamics, especially the
farther south one goes... as surface temps may balloon high enough
to lead to some rain mixing in if higher end warm advection can be
realized, and snow ratios in general may be lower than current
guidance is depicting (outside of any FGEN bullseyes). Lake effect
snow showers seem like a good bet on the backside of this system as
colder air surges back into the region, which would primarily be a
Wednesday night - Thursday phenom.

Friday / Weekend: The core of an arctic airmass looks to make its
way through the region, sending temperatures well below normal
across the Northwoods. Preceded by a shortwave and persistent cold
advection, this looks like it could feature prolonged lake effect
snow potential across the snowbelt locales. For the time being,
looks like several days with highs generally in the teens to near 20
and lows in the single digits. As such, for those looking to cash in
on the early onset of winter activities may contend with snowy
conditions on area roads when making the trek up to the
Northwoods.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Generally VFR with a few sites MVFR/IFR due to -SN. Winds
remain light and off shore. -SN over KTVC/KMBL will be exiting
after 16Z, with terminal impacts likely improving to VFR/MVFR
after 14Z. Winds turn northwest shortly after the beginning of
the period (as the widespread -SN exits), becoming 7 to 12 with
G15 to 20kts. Initial bursts of lake effect SHSN could lead to
intermittent vis and cig reductions at KCIU/KPLN, with chances
for this a KTVC being after 18Z. Periods of VFR should be seen
by most sites after 20Z, however some coastal terminals could
see MVFR cigs creep overhead after 03Z (KPLN/KAPN) as land
breeze boundaries set up off shore tonight. Low chances for -SN
impacts tonight at this time.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST this evening
     for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST this evening
     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EST this evening
     for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...ELD