449
FXUS63 KAPX 011931
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
231 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several inches of lake-enhanced snow expected tonight along the
Lake Michigan collar counties of northwest lower Michigan...as well
as for southeast sections of eastern upper Michigan.

- Next wave delivering more lake enhanced snow and cold temperatures
arrives Wednesday through Thursday night.

- Weather remains relatively active thereafter, with more chances
for snow showers at various times right through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Fast paced northern stream flow regime continues to dominate Great
Lakes weather early this afternoon...with overhead mid level ridging
already showing signs of succumbing to next quickly approaching
shortwave trough currently cutting across the upper Mississippi
Valley. Subsidence and drying with that passing ridging has largely
ended the more organized lake snow threat (for now), with just some
lingering very light snow showers/flurries rotating off northern
sections of Lake Michigan. Otherwise, a dry and fairly uneventful
day, with current temperatures mostly in the 20s.

Upstream wave and attendant weak surface trough expected to work
steadily east, crossing our area later tonight. This wave will help
drum up a rather healthy lake enhanced snow response for a few
select areas tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Main focus centers on lake enhanced snow evolution, amounts, and
attendant headline considerations tonight.

Details:

Kinda a classic southwest flow lake enhanced snow response expected
to unfold this evening as fast moving shortwave trough/attendant
surface trough helps reinvigorate ongoing convection across northern
Lake Michigan. Surge of deeper synoptic moisture/seeder feeder
processes, enhanced corridor of low level convergence, and
respectable convective cloud depth to H7 should help organize a band
of snow along the Lake Michigan collar counties of northwest lower
Michigan (including parts of Cheboygan County)...with that band
likely extending along the M-134 corridor of southern Mackinac and
Chippewa Counties in eastern Upper Michigan. Strong signal that max
and intense omega will be pegged solidly within the dendritic growth
region... easily supporting snowfall rates approaching/exceeding
(perhaps significantly so) an inch per hour at times within this
band by later this evening into the early overnight. Emmett and
Cheboygan Counties appear especially under the gun...with continued
signal of enhanced low level convergence... especially so along and
north of M-68 and along and west of I-75. Wouldn`t be surprised to
see snow totals approach and even exceed double digits in a
relatively narrow corridor of Emmet and Cheboygan Counties...with
several inches elsewhere in the Winter Weather Advisory areas. Focus
for best snows again will be a relatively narrow one, with large
sections of the headline areas likely falling well short of actual
headline criteria snow amounts. Band should get punted a bit inland
early Tuesday morning...losing both intensity and organization as it
does so as low level convergence and connection to Lake Michigan
moisture contribution are both lost. Otherwise, shortwave itself
will produce some much lighter snow showers elsewhere, with
accumulations mostly under an inch.

Rapid drying and development of warm air advection should largely
end any organized snow shower threat heading through Tuesday.

Lows tonight mostly in the teens to lower 20s, with highs Tuesday in
the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Fast paced pattern set to continue through the duration as northern
stream flow regime continues to dominate the Great Lakes. Various
waves set to cross the area, each bringing renewed lake snow
concerns and reinforcing shots of colder air into the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing additional snow concerns through
the period.

Details:

No rest for the wary, with next shortwave trough expected to race
across the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Again, conditions
look rather respectable for a decent pre-frontal southwest flow lake-
enhanced snow response into the shoreline areas of northwest lower
Michigan...as well as sections of eastern upper Michigan. Duration
will be a short one for best synoptic contribution, but could easily
see several inches of accumulation in these areas. Lighter snows
expected elsewhere with the wave passage. Post wave response is one
of rapid drying and subsidence in gusty northwest wind regime...
especially across northern Lake Michigan. Moisture remains a bit
more robust across Lake Superior, supporting a bit more organized
and intense lake effect snow into the eastern upper snowbelts
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Still expecting snow showers
to rotate into northwest lower Michigan, but as of now it appears
any accumulations with the lake effect portion of this event will
remain minimal. Perhaps biggest story will be the shot of some
modified Arctic air that will sweep across the region with this
wave. Current trends support highs Thursday perhaps not breaking 20
degrees across interior areas...with lows Thursday night in the
single digits and teens. Of course, somewhat gusty winds will make
it feel several degrees colder yet, with wind chill readings likely
in the single digits.

After a brief break Thursday night into early Friday, next in the
series of shortwave troughs looks to arrive later Friday into Friday
night. And, much like its predecessors, should again drum up a
decent southwest flow lake enhanced snow response late Friday into
Friday evening, with more pure northwest flow lake effect behind it
into Saturday. Temperatures will remain several degrees below
normal, continuing at least some lake snow threat right into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

SW flow snow showers to increase in coverage/intensity through
afternoon, esp after 0z, with all sites transitioning to IFR
cigs except APN which may stay VFR/MVFR through most of the night.
Snow will linger into the morning, esp for CIU/PLN and APN, with
improving cigs/visbys to MVFR/VFR. Think the worst impacts will be
at PLN with LIFR likely at times overnight. MBL, TVC could also have
periods of LIFR tonight, esp MBL...less confidence at CIU. Winds
expected to remain generally from the SW 5-10kts but should be
variable at times overnight. Low confidence in gusts 20-25kts
through the night but potential for some LLWS from SW at 25kts
around 1500ft, esp at APN and possibly TVC.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ017-088-
     096-097-099.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for MIZ020-021-025-031.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...FEF