813
FXUS63 KAPX 051900
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
200 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest flow lake effect snow showers this afternoon transition
  to more widespread snow tonight, especially across parts of
  northwest lower and the eastern U.P.

- Additional chances for snow this weekend into early next week.

- Cold overnight low temperatures Sunday night/Monday morning.

- Watching potential for more impactful snow toward the middle
  of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level troughing draped across the
eastern two-thirds of the CONUS this afternoon with the trough axis
running from Hudson Bay south-southwestward into the Four Corners
region/Baja California. This axis shifts eastward through the short
term forecast period with several embedded shortwave perturbations
expected to bring continued/additional snow chances to parts of
northern MI through the upcoming weekend.

Forecast Details: Light southwest flow lake effect snow showers
(occasionally mixed with a bit of freezing drizzle) this afternoon
continue to focus across sections of northwest lower. Eyes upstream
focus on a mid-level shortwave and attendant surface trough/cold
front currently swinging through MN/western WI. This wave progged to
arrive locally late this afternoon/evening providing renewed
synoptic support/moisture for more numerous/widespread and locally
heavier snow showers. Winds remain southwesterly through tonight
with the highest impact expected near and west of M-37 in far
northwest lower MI and parts of Emmet County. General accums in
these areas of 2-4" (locally higher in Emmet Co.) with 1-3" across
the remainder of far northwest lower into parts of Chip/Mack
counties. Most widespread snow exists late tonight/early Saturday
morning with winds turning northwesterly behind the passing sfc
trough/cold front.

Tough call on potential headlines late afternoon through tonight
given forecast snow accumulations generally right around 2-4 inches
across much of Manistee to Leelanau and Emmet counties (locally
higher in Emmet). Given southwest winds remain breezy through this
time frame with gusts as high as 25 mph aiding to further reduce
visibility in patchy blowing snow, that tipped the scales toward a
Winter Weather Advisory through 10z Saturday for the counties listed
above. Lesser forecast snow accum on the order of 1-3" across
remaining northwest lower Lake Michigan collar counties and southern
Chip/Mack tipped the scales in the other direction.

At least some northwest flow scattered lake effect snow showers
likely to continue Saturday across parts of eastern upper and
northwest lower, although not much in the way of accumulation
expected given a loss of synoptic moisture above a sub-5kft (and
shrinking) inversion. Could even have a bit of patchy freezing
drizzle mix in at times with cloud top temperatures flirting with
being a touch warmer than -10C.  Most likely spot for an additional
inch or two of accumulation through the day Saturday would be across
far northern Chippewa County from Paradise to the Soo.

By Saturday evening, next embedded shortwave expected to be upstream
with its sights set on the local area for Saturday night/Sunday
morning. While the heaviest snow is favored for areas to our south,
at least widespread light snow (with possible lake enhancement) is
expected across much of northern lower MI. Current trends favor 1-3"
from the tip of the mitt and south during this time frame, but
expect some refinement over the coming 36-48 hours.

Any way you slice it, continued active wintry weather with periods
of hazardous travel likely this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Pattern Forecast: ~1032mb surface high pressure is expected to be
sliding overhead Sunday evening through Monday morning setting the
stage for a very cold night Sunday night. Otherwise, an active
winter pattern continues across the Great Lakes next week with
several snow chances as early as Monday night/Tuesday, and again
Tuesday night - Wednesday with the latter of these two carrying
higher potential for more widespread impacts.

Day 3-4 (Sun. night through Monday): Cold Sunday night/Monday
morning with low temps likely falling below zero across interior
areas. Highest probabilities for sub-zero readings lie from Cadillac
to Gladwin northward to Gaylord and from Trout Lake to Kinross to
the Soo. "Warmer" near the big lakes -- generally in the single
digits above zero. Perhaps low teens at the immediate shorelines.

Day 5-7 (Mon. night - Thursday): Another active stretch of wintry
weather looks to be on tap for much of next week with snow chances
returning as early as Monday night into Tuesday. Quite a bit of
uncertainty with for this time frame with respect to how widespread
snow is, but certainly some accum. expected across at least parts of
the Northwoods.

Second, more potent and moisture-rich, wave set to trek across the
northern tier of the nation`s midsection during the late Tuesday -
Wednesday time frame.  Long range ensemble trends still favoring
this system to have higher potential for more notable accumulation
and associated impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Anticipating an uptick in snow coverage later this afternoon
which will bring MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities. Some
enhancement downwind of Lake Michigan in northwest flow which
may bring periodic heavier bursts of snow/LIFT conditions to at
least KPLN. Synoptic snow will taper off after midnight with a
cold frontal passage bringing in another shot of cold air and
the potential for lake convection Saturday. As synoptic snow
ends but low level moisture lingers will need to watch the
potential for some freezing drizzle to develop after 09Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for MIZ016.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST
     Saturday for MIZ020-025-031.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LSZ322.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JPB