501
FXUS63 KAPX 081723
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1223 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances returning to northern Michigan by Saturday night
  into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 145 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

     Dry and breezy today...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Moisture-starved cold front is dropping out of Central Canada toward
Lake Superior early this morning...with pronounced low level ridging
holding over the Southern Great Lakes region. Skies are clear across
our entire CWA attm...but a band of low/mid clouds are heading into
Lake Superior ahead of that cold front well to our north. Breezy
conditions are holding our temps in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees
despite crystal clear skies overhead.

As we head into today...weak/moisture-starved cold front will drop
thru Northern Michigan this morning...resulting in a few additional
low/mid clouds but no chances of precip. Strong ridging and a
reinforcing shot of dry low level air will move into our region in
the wake of this front during the afternoon. Upstream strong high
pressure center will then build over Michigan tonight. Expect clear
skies will return to Northern Michigan this afternoon and tonight.
High temps this afternoon will warm into the low to mid 50s. Clear
skies tonight combined with winds becoming light/variable and the
arrival of a colder airmass will allow overnight lows to fall into
the 20s across our entire CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

High pressure will linger over the region early Saturday, but will
soon exit leading to increasing cloud cover as the day progresses.
By late Saturday night into Sunday, a digging trough and its
associated low pressure system are expected to bring back shower
chances to the region. Surface high pressure builds in quickly
behind for Tuesday/Wednesday before a shortwave looks to drop from
the north by mid-week, bringing back more shower chances as we get
further into next week.

Forecast Details:

Aformentioned high pressure will be shoved out of the region through
the day Saturday. By late Saturday night, a low pressure system will
quickly approach from the southwest with rain chances increasing
from southwest to northeast Saturday night into Sunday. As mentioned
by the previous forecaster, lingering moisture may help shower
chances hold on into Monday morning. Attention then quickly turns to
another system approaching that will bring additional chances for
showers Monday. Heading into Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure will
build across the area to promote rain-free conditions for Tuesday
and Wednesday. However, this looks to be short-lived as guidance
continues to hint at more active weather returning by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Period of gusty winds and low end vfr/high end mvfr cigs into
mid afternoon behind a departing cold front. High pressure and
associated dry air then build in for the remainder of the taf
period leading to lighter winds and mostly clear skies.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...AJS