418
FXUS63 KAPX 040432
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1232 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and windy through the remainder of the day, with
  occasional gusts as high as 40 mph.

- Isolated strong-severe storms possible this evening/tonight with
  locally heavy rain possible through Wednesday morning.

- Seasonable late week into the weekend with just an occasional
  shower/storm chance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level ridging currently
situated to our east with upstream troughing making headway into the
western Great Lakes. Primary focus locally over the next 24 hours
revolves around upstream surface cold front, currently stretched
from northwest Quebec southwestward across Ontario, the central
U.P., into northern WI and points farther southwest over the Plains.
This boundary is expected to slowly slide east this evening before
crossing northern MI from northwest to southeast tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Surface high pressure gradually builds in post
fropa later Wednesday/Wednesday night.

Forecast Details: A warm, muggy and windy afternoon across much of
northern Michigan today with southwest winds gusting as high as 25-
35 mph, locally up to 40 mph at times. This helping to boost
temperatures well into the 80s, especially across downsloping areas,
despite continued upper-level smoke dampening the sun. Latest
mesoanalysis suggests we`re in the process of building several
hundred J/kg MLCAPE across interior northern lower with minimal
capping. Despite a lack of forcing until later today (even lake
breeze development limited by strong winds), suppose there could be
a rogue shower and/or storm that pops up over the next several
hours. Chances for this are low, but favored location would be
interior northern lower.

Higher shower/storm chances begin to arrive from the west after 21z
with waves of showers and embedded storms to follow through tonight.
Suppose any storms through about midnight could be strong to severe
given deep layer bulk shear values generally between 35-45 kts.
Gusty winds are the primary threat. This thought generally mirrors
SPC`s Day 1 Marginal Risk.

Rain chances expected to be most widespread later tonight into
Wednesday morning, and this time frame may really be the first time
northeast lower sees any precip activity. Rain likely to be slower
moving through this time frame before chances diminish northwest
to southeast late Wednesday morning through the afternoon. Highest
QPF, perhaps locally more than an inch in spots, is favored west
of Interstate 75 in both the eastern U.P. and northern lower. High
temps Wednesday expected to be some 10-20 degrees cooler than
today -- back into the 60s for most with some early day low-mid
70s favored near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Pattern Forecast: Flow aloft turns more zonal over the Great
Lakes for the second half of the work week with surface high
pressure largely dominating northern MI`s sensible weather. By
Friday night- Saturday, attention turns to an incoming mid-level
shortwave, and while not appearing very impressive, may provide
the next chance for some low-end shower chances. A more robust
wave expected to follow late in the weekend into early next week
with higher chances for showers/storms.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated
Wednesday night through Friday afternoon northern Michigan. High
temps Thursday - Friday back into the 70s area-wide under mixed sun
and clouds. Wouldn`t be surprised to have at least some low
concentrations of Canadian wildfire smoke bleed back into the
northern Great Lakes at times through this time frame.

Some low shower potential exists later Friday into Saturday, but
latest trends support much, if not all, of northern Michigan
remaining dry through period. Better chances for showers and
potential thunderstorms arrive toward the tail end of the weekend
later Sunday into Monday. Seasonable temperatures expected to
continue -- with highs generally in the 70s through the remainder of
the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Rain and isolated embedded storms will continue to work into
northern Michigan from west to east tonight. Associated lowered CIGs
will also overspread the region over the next several hours. MVFR
CIGs have moved over CIU, with likely IFR CIGs working in shortly.
IFR CIGs, and potentially LIFR CIGs, look to move into the northern
Michigan TAF sites excluding APN in the next 2-4 hours, with a later
arrival time for APN closer to 12Z. These CIGs will stick around for
several hours before eventually clearing from northwest to southeast
later this morning and afternoon, returning flight conditions to VFR
for the duration of the issuance period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016-017-
     020-021-025>027-031-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LHZ348-
     349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...DJC