564
FXUS63 KAPX 031442
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1042 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- West-southwest winds gusting between 35-50 mph through this
  afternoon.

- Rain and snow chances breifly return Saturday.

- Cooler with snow chances early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Current forecast remains on track with gusty winds being
observed across northern Michigan this morning. Clouds will
decrease through the day as high pressure builds overhead,
resulting in cooling temperatures tonight. Please see the short
and long term discussion below for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Impressive shortwave troughing will continue to punch over the Great
Lakes through this afternoon, supporting a sub-1000mb cyclone
currently centered over the western U.P. with strong divergence
aloft as it treks across Ontario/Quebec today. The attendant front
will push further south and east of the area today as high pressure
begins to build across the Midwest today, and eventually centering
over the Great Lakes tonight.

Forecast Details:

The main forecast concern today will be breezy conditions,
especially this morning into early afternoon. The tight pressure
gradient across the region as the aforementioned system departs will
support west-southwest winds between 15-25 mph with gusts between 35-
50 mph during that time, with highest gusts expected across Tip of
the Mitt/Straits where a Wind Advisory has been issued. This will
lead to continued concerns of additional down limbs and trees that
have been compromised from recent icing, potentially hindering
recovery efforts. The good news is that temperatures have continued
to warm overnight as expected, and will remain in the mid 30s to low
40s into this evening across the areas impacted by this weekend`s
storm -- working to melt existing icing across trees and other
elevated surfaces. Warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 40s are
expected across our far southeast counties near Saginaw Bay.
Clearing skies and winds going calm tonight are expected to allow
temperatures to dip into low to mid 20s away from the lakeshores
overnight into Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Forecast Pattern... Clear skies with temperatures reaching the mid
40s to low 50s Friday. Winds will be light. Skies will become partly
cloudy during the afternoon hours as moisture moves in ahead of the
next system. A surface low will pass to the south and bring
rain/snow chances to northern lower early Saturday. Decent agreement
in the guidance to keep the system far enough south that the
precipitation will be brief, and clear out by the afternoon.

A larger upper level low will dip down towards MI from CAN late
Sunday into Monday. Guidance agrees on a surface cyclone sliding
down the CAN plains towards the Great lakes under this upper level
feature. Some models suggest that the cyclone strengthens over
northern MI, and some do not. At this time, there is higher
confidence in some places of northern MI seeing snow Monday, as
temperatures will drop. How much is still in question. Nonetheless,
winter hasn`t left us just yet.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions are expected at northern lower TAF
sites this morning before firmly turning to VFR by late
morning/early afternoon. CIGs at CIU are expected to remain LIFR/IFR
for a few hours before rising to MVFR later this morning with
improving VSBYs. VFR conditions are anticipated across all northern
Michigan TAF sites by this evening. West-southwest winds will
continue to increase with sustained winds between 15-25 kts and
gusts to 35-45 kts through the afternoon. Winds are expected to go
weak/calm overnight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018-088-
     096>099.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ348-
     349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ346.
     Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323-341-342-
     344-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322.
     Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NSC
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...DJC