712
FXUS63 KAPX 182328
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
728 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures and rain-free conditions through Thursday.

- Rain chances emerge Friday into Friday night. Perhaps better
  rain chances later Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

More of the same through Thursday with high pressure remaining in
control. Expect another coolish night tonight followed by a very
warm day on Thursday. Patchy fog around again tonight with calm
winds allowing temperatures to drop down to the saturation point.
Not as cool tonight with lows generally in the low and mid 50s.
Slightly warmer Thursday with highs in the low and mid 80s. These
temperatures will challenge a few record highs for the date. Mainly
clear skies tonight will likely mix with some diurnally driven
cumulus Thursday afternoon. Winds will remain on the light side.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Will it ever rain again? The answer of course is yes, but when???
Low pressure currently evident on satellite imagery across eastern
Montana and western sections of the Dakotas heads steadily northeast
into central Canada Thursday into Friday. Northern Michigan will be
on the southern extreme of this system with weak forcing/limited
instability. A slightly more moist southerly flow may allow for
showers and storms to our west across eastern Wisconsin to hold
together just long enough to produce a few light showers across the
forecast area (morning west and afternoon east). Confidence that
this actually happens is low but guidance is trending that a little
rain will survive but will continue with the ongoing slight/low
chance pops due to the uncertainty. Fairly quiet weather is then
expected to return Saturday into early Sunday with nearly zonal flow
aloft. Another possible system later Sunday into Sunday night brings
perhaps somewhat better chances for much needed rainfall. Extended
guidance then varies on the timing/details of yet another possible
trough toward the middle of next week leading to more chance pops.
Temperatures look like they will cool some from recent levels but
still end up a few degrees above average for later September.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Still expecting some MVFR to IFR producing fog and mist to
develop early Thursday morning, although overall extent and
location of any fog/mist remains a low confidence forecast. Any
fog/mist will burn off quickly after sunrise, leaving behind
VFR conditions under a few passing high clouds and high based
cumulus. Light winds with local lake breezes developing by
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB