861
FXUS63 KAPX 120356
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1156 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/freeze conditions (again) tonight.

- Rain moves across northern Michigan Tuesday/continuing showers
  Wednesday. Breezy Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Warming trend for week`s end though tempered by rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Persistent blocking ridge over the
Atlantic basin starting to break down...allowing persistent long
wave troughing over eastern North America to finally give way wit
short wave ridging extending from the southwestern U.S. into the
northern Plains and Prairie provinces of Canada (though there is
short wave troughing on its heels moving out of Saskatchewan).
Low level thermal troughing hanging over the Great Lakes (-7C 850mb
temperature at APX this morning) but strong warm advection ongoing
across the northern/central Plains and pushing into the Midwest.  At
the surface broad 1028mb height centered over the upper Midwest/
upper Great Lakes; weak frontal boundary extends from Lake Erie west
across Illinois/northern Missouri/southern Nebraska with a 1020mb
frontal wave along the Illinois/Indiana border. Lee side low/Alberta
Clipper associated with upstream short wave trough moving into
Saskatchewan.

Upstream short wave trough will dig southeast into the Great Lakes
by Wednesday in response to sharpening ridge axis along the spine of
the Rockies.   This ridge advances east and nudges short wave trough
into the lower Great Lakes and east coast Thursday.  Another short
wave trough appears in the offing for Saturday...but at the very
least the trend is toward a more zone/Pacific dominant (read:
warmer) pattern by the weekend.  Upper Great Lakes surface high
moves into the lower Lakes tonight...as Alberta Clipper moves into
the upper Midwest.  This low is forecast to occlude prior to
crossing Michigan Tuesday night...with colder cyclonic flow wrapping
across Michigan Wednesday.  High pressure builds in Thursday along
with short wave ridging...followed by stronger southerly return flow
Friday.  Probably looking at a cold frontal passage Saturday though
how cold remains to be seen...but there will be chances for rain
through the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Frost/freeze conditions (again) tonight: Unlike last night...best
cooling conditions expected during the first half of tonight once
diurnal clouds thin (and leftover cloud debris hanging around the
subsidence inversion base especially across eastern Upper where
cloud cover is pretty extensive).  Initial cooling should be best
across interior northern Lower where temperature/dew point spreads
are highest...and some areas struggling to get out of the mid 40s.
Dew points are higher along the lakeshores where the lake breeze is
doing its thing. Clouds/winds will be increasing during the early
morning hours which should put a brake on falling temperatures...but
lows in the 25-30 degree range probably along/west of the US-131
corridor so a Freeze Warning will be issued for these areas...with a
Frost Advisory for Manistee/Benzie/Leelanau counties where
temperatures are expected to climb after midnight.

Rain moves across northern Michigan Tuesday/continuing showers
Wednesday. Breezy Tuesday and Wednesday: Anticipating a warm
advection rain band to push into the forecast area from the west
starting later Tuesday morning; decent difluence aloft and a
modest precipitable water axis. There may be a break in the
initial rain later in the afternoon but precipitation may become
more showery/convective later in the day with arrival of
stronger dynamic forcing and low level theta-e axis with
forecast soundings showing a bit of a MAUL-ish look in the mid
levels (or at least convectively unstable). As the clipper
departs moisture wrapping around the backside of the system will
keep showery weather in the forecast at least through
Wednesday. Consensus forecast wants to dry things out Wednesday
night but not so certain on that yet so have lingered PoPs into
Wednesday evening east of I-75. Will be breezy both ahead of the
system Tuesday (south/southeast gusts 20-30+mph)...and on the
backside Wednesday from the northwest.

Warming trend for week`s end though tempered by rain chances:
Temperatures finally back into the 60s for Thursday/Friday...
Saturday/Sunday could be back in the 70s but there is a huge amount
of spread in the guidance regarding temperatures (nearly 30 degrees)
and precipitation chances.  If it can stay dry this weekend then the
potential is certainly there.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday morning.
Current clear skies will give way to increasing mid/high cloud late
tonight/early Tuesday morning. Light rain is expected to arrive by
mid morning across western parts of the area, eventually spreading
across northern Michigan into the afternoon. Additional showers and
perhaps a few storms will be possible later Tuesday afternoon and
evening. CIGs will quickly lower with the arrival of rain chances
Tuesday, likely becoming IFR across the eastern U.P. and far
northern lower during the afternoon. MVFR CIGs are expected across
most of the remainder of the area -- with the exceptions of MBL
which may stay VFR through the issuance period. Otherwise, winds
will increase out of the south-southeast Tuesday morning with
sustained wind speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts to 20-30 kts into the
evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ016>018-021>024-
     026>030-032>036-041-042-099.
     Frost Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ020-025-031.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 AM EDT Wednesday
     for LHZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for LHZ347>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPB
AVIATION...DJC