760
FXUS63 KAPX 311208
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
708 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Long duration lake effect snow setup, occasionally boosted
  by passing clippers, continues to pile up snow into the
  northwest Lower and eastern Upper snowbelts through New Year`s
  Day.

- Snow chances persist through the weekend as additional
  clippers swing through, favoring the usual snowbelt
  locations.

- Temperatures look to trend milder heading into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Lake effect snow showers will ring in the new year with us here
in northern MI, though activity looks to taper slightly in the
early morning hours as the initial wave lifts east. Lighter
synoptic snow will continue across areas outside of the favored
snowbelts, generally amounting to an inch or less, with some
additional contribution possible where lake effect snow showers
can bleed outward. Any lull in lighter snow will be brief as a
more potent shortwave quickly follows on the heels of the
departing system, reinvigorating snowfall coverage and intensity
through the day. Lowe level winds gradually veer toward a more
northwest direction, maintaining favorable fetch into the
traditional snowbelt regions of northern Lower and eastern Upper
and prolonging what will be as the previous forecaster said, a
drawn-out yet impactful stretch of wintry weather right in time
for the New Year.

Forecast soundings continue to depict impressive low level lake
induced instability with deep saturation, supporting efficient
snow accumulations. Snows through the day and into the evening
will allow already growing totals from last night to climb with
an additional 4 to 8 inches, (with locally higher amounts up to
12 inches possible) across the typical snowbelt locations, with
lighter accumulations of 2 to 4 inches elsewhere across
northwest Lower and up to around an inch or two across remaining
areas. Please see the latest Winter Storm Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory for additional information. Any slight winds
shifts will influence where the highest totals ultimately occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

An active and wintry pattern remains firmly in place through
the latter half of the week and into the weekend, with little
indication of any prolonged break. Fast-moving shortwave
disturbances and clipper-type systems continue to traverse the
region within persistent northwest flow aloft, each providing
periodic reinforcements to lake effect and lake enhanced
snowfall. While none of these waves appear particularly strong
on their own, several periods stand out for more organized
snowfall potential as additional disturbances move through. Each
system will have the ability to enhance snowfall, especially
within the typical northwest flow snowbelts, while areas outside
of those regions continue to see intermittent lighter
accumulations.

Temperatures through the long term remain on the colder side
with daytime highs generally ranging from the teens to 20s.
Thursday (New Year`s Day)appears to be the coldest day of the
period with temperatures struggling to get out of the teens.
Some gradual moderation is suggested heading into the weekend,
with temperature trending closer to seasonal normals by Sunday.
Early next week guidance suggests a ridge attempting to make its
way to the region... potentially leading to precipitation
concerns if temperatures aloft warm enough. Something to
continue to monitor in the coming forecast cycles. For now,
guidance supports a continuation of mainly snow as we head into
the first days of the new year across northern MI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 708 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Lake effect snow showers will continue across parts of northern
Michigan through the issuance period. A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs
will persist this morning as coverage of MVFR CIGs expands through
the day. Reduced VSBY is expected at times through this evening at
various locations, but worst VSBY drops to IFR/LIFR are most likely
this afternoon and evening during the overlap of heaviest snow
showers and strongest winds. Sustained northwest winds between 10-15
kts will gust to 25-35 kts during this time, weakening some into
Thursday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016-
     017-020-025-026-031-032-088-095-096-099.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for MIZ021-022-
     027-028-086-087.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LMZ341-345-
     346.
     Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LMZ323-342-344.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC