438
FXUS63 KAPX 052333
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
633 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow tonight into Thursday...patchy freezing drizzle
  possible

- A period of very gusty winds, especially near Lake Michigan
  coast Thursday afternoon/evening

- Gusty winds with lake effect snow Thursday night into Friday

- Potentially more accumulating widespread snow later this
  weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Pattern Synopsis: Nearly zonal flow in place across the lower 48
states through the period. There are two impulses of interest within
this flow regime. The first is currently tracking east out of the
central Rockies and will mainly miss us to the south. A second
stronger wave is just west of the Rockies along the U.S./Canada
border and is forecast to track across the Upper Great Lakes by late
in the period. While there was some uncertainty in recent days, it
does not appear that these two wave will phase appreciably.

Forecast Details: The low clouds that were in place over most of the
area to start the day have largely cleared as upper-level ridging
and surface high pressure slide east across the area. However, this
clearing will be short lived as mid/high level clouds are already
spilling into the area in the WAA/return flow ahead of the
approaching waves.

Clouds will gradually thicken and lower tonight, with a period of
light snow expected late tonight into Thursday. Do not expect
significant snowfall with this system locally given its quick
movement and overall lack of moisture. Most areas shouldn`t see more
than an inch or two through the end of the day Thursday, although
some 3 inch totals are possible in eastern Upper Michigan closer to
the stronger forcing. One other concern given the lack of deeper
moisture is the potential for freezing drizzle, especially across
parts of northern Lower Michigan. The freezing drizzle looks most
likely to occur Thursday morning. Forecast soundings suggest a
several thousand foot thick surface based saturated layer not much
colder than -8C which suggests limited ice crystal availability.
There is also decent wind shear forecast within the saturated layer
which will help with collision coalescence processes. We`ll need to
keep an eye on this freezing drizzle potential to see if it ends up
being more than a localized nuisance.

One other forecast concern toward the end of the period is gusty
winds as colder air surges in on the back side of the system. These
stronger winds necessitated Gale Warnings on most of our nearshore
marine zones where deeper mixing will occur. The big question is if
we will need a Wind Advisory on any of our land based zones. Opted
to hold off on a Wind Advisory for now, but there is certainly some
potential later Thursday afternoon/Thursday evening with the onshore
flow off Lake Michigan in the northwest Lower Michigan coastal
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Slightly below normal temperatures are expected for the most part
during the long term with glancing shots of arctic air across Canada
continuing to drop into the northern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the
pattern is expected to remain fairly active through this weekend
with a couple of chances for accumulating snowfall. Quieter
conditions are then likely early next week.

It could get a little interesting across portions of the region
Thursday night (especially early) with sharp cyclonic curvature, a
surge of arctic air, lingering moisture and west northwest flow lake
effect snow bands. Although actual snow amounts don`t look
outrageous with perhaps an inch or two across northwest lower and 2
to 4 inches across eastern upper, northwest winds of 30 to 35 mph
should lead to a decent amount of blowing and drifting snow. Could
see a sneaky short lived impactful event, especially from the
evening into the early overnight hours. Moisture and winds begin to
wane toward morning which should decrease the impact. Mainly light
lake effect lingers into Friday. Attention then turns to a storm
system moving by to our south this weekend. Guidance has been
trending farther south with this feature and it is in good agreement
that the surface low will track across the southern Ohio Valley.
This would not normally have much of an impact on northern Michigan.
However, model guidance is targeting the region with strong
forcing/upward motion (700-500 mb div-q). Model qpf would lead to a
few inches of snow across northern lower from Saturday afternoon
into early Sunday but we shall see on that one. The remainder of the
long term looks fairly quiet with the possible exception of a little
lake effect with the region likely in between northern and southern
stream energy. Temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal
through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Clouds will thicken and lower through this evening...with MVFR
ceilings expected to develop after 0600Z. Periods of light snow
will develop as the column saturates later this evening into the
overnight hours...and with mid level drying spreading across
northern Michigan Thursday morning may see snow taper off to
some freezing drizzle.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM Thursday to 5 AM EST Friday for
     LHZ345>349.
     Gale Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 5 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Gale Warning from 3 PM Thursday to 5 AM EST Friday for LSZ321.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 5 AM EST Friday for
     LSZ322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JPB