232
FXUS63 KAPX 240737
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
337 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/storms today; a few stronger storms possible
near Saginaw Bay.

- Much cooler tonight.

- Heavy rain threat Thursday into Friday...

- Periodic storm chances, especially Thursday/Friday and
  Sunday/Monday...

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Southwesterly flow still hangs on across the central US...with
anomalous 599dm upper ridge axis now focused more along the East
Coast as a PV maxima slides by to our north. Colder PV over central
Canada with 850mb temps around 0C over Manitoba...attendant to a
cold front near the International Border. A high-bridged, more
nebulous cold front stretches from the central Plains into northern
Michigan, focusing deeper moisture (and convective activity)
generally from Nebraska into WI...with another maxima of moisture to
our north...as highest pwats generally split overhead as the
boundary gets strung out overhead.  However...this latter cold front
is the harbinger of much cooler and less humid air for northern
Michigan, with temps back below 80 at midnight for a change...in the
wake of some convective activity that has long since passed through
the region...though some showers linger.

Lingering boundary/col region over Michigan this morning to slowly
sink southward today, slowly taking axis of deeper moisture
southward with it...keeping the threat for showers and storms in the
forecast today into tonight. High pressure tries to settle in
Wednesday...allowing for return flow through the Upper MS Valley as
a PV maxima tracks through the north/central Plains Wednesday night
into Thursday. This should allow the boundary to drift back
northward...focusing unusually deep moisture again across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region into Friday...as upper pattern remains
largely zonal overall through the end of the week. Another wad of PV
tracking through central Canada this weekend could warm things up
again...and keep the active weather going into late Sunday and
Monday...with long-range signals hinting at some potential for
troughing (or at least, not strong ridging) to try to take over the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes going into the start of July.

Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:

Shower/storm chances today...Think showers and storms will hang out
across the area today, especially near and south of M-32/M-72 this
afternoon as the front slowly drifts southward. Instability
shouldn`t be as good today as yesterday...but enough (500-1000J/kg
CAPE) could still be generated across the southern half of the CWA
to warrant development of additional showers/storms. Forcing remains
generally meager...though with flow becoming light this afternoon,
do expect some lake breeze development to occur...which could focus
best chances for convective activity on the Sunrise Side,
specifically, in the Saginaw Bay region where there is a better
chance for a warmer, more moist/unstable atmosphere to develop yet
this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is marginal (most of it remains
well back to our west), but could be enough for a stronger storm or
two. Primary concern should be wind...with perhaps locally heavy
rain. If anything does get going along the lake breeze off Saginaw
Bay...potential increase in low-level shear could lead to some
rotating storms...though think potential for this is low attm.

Chilly tonight for the EUP...as a wad of dry air swings in up there
this evening...and with highs today remaining largely in the 60s
(perhaps struggling to break 60 at Whitefish Point with northerly
winds off the lake)...expecting temps up that way to fall well into
the 40s tonight. Does have me wondering if some rogue patchy frost
could develop up there in historically cold spots tonight if drying
is as aggressive, or more, than expected...and with light flow to
boot as high pressure should be closest to overhead up there. Think
this is something that may not be clear till we see how dry we get
up there today...but hi-res probabilistic guidance does have a
13 percent chance of temps under 35 degrees for
Paradise/Whitefish Bay. Elsewhere...temps tonight should largely
be around or above 50 across northern Lower, where it is
possible moisture is slowest to scour out, and where there is a
better shot of clouds lingering.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Heavy rain threat Thursday into Friday...As return flow strengthens
to our west and front begins to pivot back northward across the
Upper Midwest...will look for a wad of warm advection rainfall to
develop along/north of said boundary. Signals for potential col
region just upstream could allow for further deformation to enhance
rainfall totals somewhere...as pwats will again crank up to
anomalous levels (1.5-2in) going into Thursday. Heavy rain concerns
could start as early as Wednesday night across southern zones,
depending on how quickly return flow ramps up to our west...but
primary threat should be during the day Thursday into Thursday
night...perhaps lingering into Friday as the system tracks through.
Attm...probabilistic guidance hints at better rainfall totals
(1+inches) remaining to our west...but certainly close enough to us
to warrant keeping an eye on things going forward.

Periodic storm chances through the weekend...Attm, think the front
should remain to our south and/or across our southern zones into
Thursday night...though will have to see how quickly it drifts north
to see how quickly/how well we are able to tap into any better
instability/buoyancy that should be present south of the front. Much
of the area should otherwise remain north of the front, beneath a
more stable low-level environment thanks to inversion aloft, with
the overall profile likely becoming more stable with time as
moisture increases aloft. However...some guidance soundings suggest
elevated instability could still develop above the inversion...so at
least embedded thunder is possible through Friday. Additional rounds
of thunder possible Sunday into Monday with the next more potent
wave moving into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

VCSH at times. MVFR cigs PLN/TVC/MBL part of Tuesday.

A stalling front will help regenerate some showers/perhaps TSRA
chances on Tuesday. Overnight, a few showers are possible,
especially CIU. Best chance on Tuesday will be at APN/TVC/MBL.
MVFR also expected for part of Tuesday at PLN/TVC/MBL.

Light winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ