428
FXUS63 KAPX 221731
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1231 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light rain showers continue across parts of northern
  today and tonight.

- Lingering lake effect rain (with a few snow showers) on Saturday.

- Rain and snow early next week, colder temperatures to follow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Forecast remains in great shape at this time, no major changes
needed. Still dealing with the leftovers of cutoff low pressure.
Largely northerly flow over the lakes continues to drum up some lake
induced shower activity near Grand Traverse Bay, while a plume of
deeper moisture intrudes from the northeast, which should allow for
shower coverage to increase over northeast lower Michigan. This
activity still looks to carry into tonight, but with milder
temperatures and winds largely confining activity closer to the
lakeshores (and mild temperatures tonight), an inland risk for snow
appears unfounded at this juncture. Otherwise, a standard cloudy and
gloomy day across the board, which is not all that anomalous for
November in northern Michigan with warm lakes and cooler air
intrusions. Highs today in the 40s, warmest near the immediate
lakeshores, lows tonight in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 329 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

A strong closed mid/upper-level low apparent on satellite imagery
centered over the Mid-Atlantic will continue to pivot across much of
the eastern CONUS today as the associated surface cyclone gradually
weakens with time due the vertically-stacked system cutting off
favorable temperature/vorticity advection. Meanwhile, ridging and
associated height rises look to overspread the Great Lakes by this
evening.

Forecast Details:

Scattered light rain showers are ongoing across parts of the area
downwind of Lake Michigan, primarily in the vicinity of and south of
Grand Traverse Bay with north winds in place. Light rain showers are
expected to continue across typical northerly flow lake effect areas
across northwest lower, northeast lower, and eastern upper today
into tonight with aforementioned northerly flow in place on the
backside of the system well to our east. Rainfall amounts will be
limited to a few hundredths of an inch through the period.
Temperatures look to warm into the mid to upper 40s for most areas
with the warmest readings coming close to the lakeshores. While
temperatures may cool into the mid/upper 30s tonight, snow is not
expected to mix in at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Lake effect rain showers to continue on Saturday as flow turns
northwesterly and a little energy impinges on the region from the
north. It will be cool enough later in the day and into the early
portions of the overnight for snow showers to mix in across portions
of the higher terrain, the eastern UP, and within any more robust
showers. Not expecting impacts at this time. Brief ridging on
Sunday, and generally dry before a few short waves move west to east
eyeing the GL & Ohio Valley.

Nice little short wave progged to move into the Great Lakes Region
Monday into Tuesday. Actually looks like two pieces of energy, one
diving into the GL and one the Ohio Valley. The degree to which
these two pieces of energy interact will affect the development of
the low pressure system and the magnitude/girth of the precipitation
shield. Nevertheless, it does appear that the first wave of
precipitation around Monday will be a little on the warmer side, and
thus predominantly rain. As the GL short wave dives down into N MI,
cooler air will funnel in, transitioning precip from rain to snow
and to a lake effect variety as well. Does not look blockbuster by
any means at this point, but a catalyst to an active winter pattern
going forward with high temperatures dropping into the low to mid
30s.

Speaking of which, favorable wintry pattern/trends continue to
emerge in the extended. Multiple opportunities for cold air
intrusions and, at the very least, lake effect snow chances. ENS
guidance paints trough after trough digging into the Great Lakes and
eastern CONUS late next week into the first portions of December,
thanks to above normal heights thrusting into the N Pacific, and
across/vicinity of Greenland. How exactly these troughs and short
waves interact with each other will determine how much snow falls
across N MI. Will it be mostly lake effect snows? Or will there be
several opportunities for synoptic snows where most benefit? These
are the questions that will be answered in the coming week(s) but
for certain, the pattern remains favorable for cold and snow chances
in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

MVFR CIGs expected to continue to prevail across northern Michigan
with low pressure being slow to depart. Light lake effect rain
showers continue for MBL, TVC, and APN... and perhaps even
occasionally at PLN as well. N to NNW winds continue, sustained
around 10kts, with gusts 20-25kts at times into the evening
before tapering to sustained flow of 10kts or less tonight.
There remains potential for IFR conditions at CIU and APN
tonight. Northwest winds ramp back up to sustained 10kts,
gusting to 20-25kts at times after 13-14z Saturday, with
continued MVFR CIGs.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAD
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...HAD