673
FXUS63 KAPX 271726
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1226 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow into this evening across portions of
  northwest Lower Michigan and eastern Upper Michigan.

- Continued cold through this week, with coldest period Wed
  night to Fri morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 150 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Pattern Synopsis: Clipper system currently crossing the Upper Great
Lakes will exit the area to the east by this evening. Another weaker
wave will dive into the persistent eastern North American trof by
later tonight.

Forecast Details: The light snow on the "warm" side of the clipper
will be east of the area shortly. Winds are already trending more
westerly behind a lead surface trof, but will quickly become more
northwesterly behind the clipper`s cold front. These northwest winds
will linger through the night. Lake effect snow bands will shift
with time, with portions of northwest Lower and eastern Upper
Michigan the most likely to be impacted. Expect the snow to largely
shut off over the Tip of the Mitt as rapidly expanding ice cover
doesn`t give much of a fetch over Lake Michigan as the winds shift
northwest. Plan to keep ongoing Winter Weather Advisory in place
through its planned expiration this evening. While accumulations in
the advisory area should not be terribly high (generally 2-4
inches), the gusty winds and small flake size will combine to
produce locally poor visibility through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Pattern Synopsis: Stagnant ridge west/trof east configuration
remains in place across North America through the period. A sharp
trof will sink south across the area Thursday into Friday,
accompanied by a renewed shot of cold air. Short wave ridging
arrives by late in the weekend/early next week and will provide some
moderation of temperatures.

Forecast Details: Cold conditions persist until the weekend with
highs no warmer than the teens and lows generally in the single
digits either side of zero. The coldest conditions are expected
Thursday into Friday with the passage of the above mentioned trof.
There won`t be much moisture for this system to work with, but the
cold conditions will keep lake effect snows going. Expanding ice on
the Great Lakes will continue to decrease potential over-lake fetch
this week and the cold air mass should tend to favor small snow
flake size more often than not. Some moderation in temperatures is
expected for the weekend, but temperatures will still be cooler than
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Winds tonight remain from the NW while also diminishing shortly
after 0000Z. CIGs continue to improve and turn conditions to
VFR at KCIU, KPLN and KAPN tonight while -SHSN and -SN will keep
MVFR and IFR VSBY`s at KTVC and KMBL. Cloud cover spreads
Wednesday, eventually returning MVFR CIG`s to all sites at the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     MIZ020>022-025>027-031-032-099.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ086.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...PBB
AVIATION...SJC