563
FXUS63 KAPX 120004
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
804 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/freeze conditions (again) tonight.

- Rain moves across northern Michigan Tuesday/continuing showers
  Wednesday. Breezy Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Warming trend for week`s end though tempered by rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Persistent blocking ridge over the
Atlantic basin starting to break down...allowing persistent long
wave troughing over eastern North America to finally give way wit
short wave ridging extending from the southwestern U.S. into the
northern Plains and Prairie provinces of Canada (though there is
short wave troughing on its heels moving out of Saskatchewan).
Low level thermal troughing hanging over the Great Lakes (-7C 850mb
temperature at APX this morning) but strong warm advection ongoing
across the northern/central Plains and pushing into the Midwest.  At
the surface broad 1028mb height centered over the upper Midwest/
upper Great Lakes; weak frontal boundary extends from Lake Erie west
across Illinois/northern Missouri/southern Nebraska with a 1020mb
frontal wave along the Illinois/Indiana border. Lee side low/Alberta
Clipper associated with upstream short wave trough moving into
Saskatchewan.

Upstream short wave trough will dig southeast into the Great Lakes
by Wednesday in response to sharpening ridge axis along the spine of
the Rockies.   This ridge advances east and nudges short wave trough
into the lower Great Lakes and east coast Thursday.  Another short
wave trough appears in the offing for Saturday...but at the very
least the trend is toward a more zone/Pacific dominant (read:
warmer) pattern by the weekend.  Upper Great Lakes surface high
moves into the lower Lakes tonight...as Alberta Clipper moves into
the upper Midwest.  This low is forecast to occlude prior to
crossing Michigan Tuesday night...with colder cyclonic flow wrapping
across Michigan Wednesday.  High pressure builds in Thursday along
with short wave ridging...followed by stronger southerly return flow
Friday.  Probably looking at a cold frontal passage Saturday though
how cold remains to be seen...but there will be chances for rain
through the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Frost/freeze conditions (again) tonight: Unlike last night...best
cooling conditions expected during the first half of tonight once
diurnal clouds thin (and leftover cloud debris hanging around the
subsidence inversion base especially across eastern Upper where
cloud cover is pretty extensive).  Initial cooling should be best
across interior northern Lower where temperature/dew point spreads
are highest...and some areas struggling to get out of the mid 40s.
Dew points are higher along the lakeshores where the lake breeze is
doing its thing. Clouds/winds will be increasing during the early
morning hours which should put a brake on falling temperatures...but
lows in the 25-30 degree range probably along/west of the US-131
corridor so a Freeze Warning will be issued for these areas...with a
Frost Advisory for Manistee/Benzie/Leelanau counties where
temperatures are expected to climb after midnight.

Rain moves across northern Michigan Tuesday/continuing showers
Wednesday. Breezy Tuesday and Wednesday: Anticipating a warm
advection rain band to push into the forecast area from the west
starting later Tuesday morning; decent difluence aloft and a
modest precipitable water axis. There may be a break in the
initial rain later in the afternoon but precipitation may become
more showery/convective later in the day with arrival of
stronger dynamic forcing and low level theta-e axis with
forecast soundings showing a bit of a MAUL-ish look in the mid
levels (or at least convectively unstable). As the clipper
departs moisture wrapping around the backside of the system will
keep showery weather in the forecast at least through
Wednesday. Consensus forecast wants to dry things out Wednesday
night but not so certain on that yet so have lingered PoPs into
Wednesday evening east of I-75. Will be breezy both ahead of the
system Tuesday (south/southeast gusts 20-30+mph)...and on the
backside Wednesday from the northwest.

Warming trend for week`s end though tempered by rain chances:
Temperatures finally back into the 60s for Thursday/Friday...
Saturday/Sunday could be back in the 70s but there is a huge amount
of spread in the guidance regarding temperatures (nearly 30 degrees)
and precipitation chances.  If it can stay dry this weekend then the
potential is certainly there.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 801 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions will persist across northern Michigan through Tuesday
morning. Clear skies are in store for the first half of tonight
before mid/high cloud begins to spread from west to east by early
Tuesday morning. Rain showers work into western parts of the area by
mid to late morning, initially struggling to reach the ground with
dry low-level air in place. Regardless, increasing saturation with
time is expected to drop CIGs to IFR across the eastern U.P. and
much of northern lower by mid afternoon Tuesday. CIGs may stay MVFR
across southern portions of the area (including TVC/MBL). Weak/calm
winds tonight increase out of the south-southeast Tuesday morning.
Sustained winds of 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-30 kts are expected
late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Occasional gusts
over 30 kts will be possible.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     MIZ016>018-021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042-099.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     MIZ020-025-031.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 AM EDT Wednesday
     for LHZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for LHZ347>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPB
AVIATION...DJC