742
FXUS63 KAPX 260230
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1030 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances spread across northern lower this afternoon/evening.

- Lingering dreary conditions into early Saturday before sun
  returns Saturday afternoon.

- Strong storms and heavy rain possible early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Large area of very light rain/drizzle continues to work east
across the area this evening. Expect this rain to gradually end
from west to east overnight into early Saturday morning. Any
rain amounts will remain light, largely under a tenth of an
inch. Lows tonight will range through the 30s into the lower
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, ~1013mb low
pressure continues to strengthen over southern MI into the Ohio
Valley -- expected to deepen more substantially tonight as it moves
toward the eastern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an incoming mid-level
trough currently over the upper MS Valley slides southeastward this
evening, essentially closing off overhead late tonight/early
Saturday morning. This feature slides east during the day Saturday
with rising mid-upper level heights & attendant surface high
pressure in its wake.

Forecast Details: Most numerous shower activity early this afternoon
is situated across parts of eastern upper Michigan southwestward
into northeast WI, and a secondary area to our south over parts of
IN/far southern MI. Through the remainder of the day, certainly the
deepest moisture and best forcing remain displaced to our south,
with mid-level deformation providing the bulk of our support
locally. Showers are expected to continue to expand southeast with
time through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, albeit
likely in some decaying fashion, especially as you head toward
southeastern reaches of the forecast area near Saginaw Bay. The bulk
of steadiest/most numerous showers likely to be off to our east by
04-06z tonight, although that aforementioned mid-level wave will
continue to support a chance of showers across eastern upper and
especially east of I-75 all the way through mid-late Saturday
morning. Additional QPF through 18z Saturday expected to largely
range from 0.10-0.25" (highest over the Straits/tip of the
mitt) with those over the southeast likely struggling to achieve
even a tenth of an inch.

Incoming high pressure and rising heights aloft for the second half
of Saturday should yield increasing sunshine amidst cooler
temperatures on the heels of occasionally breezy north-northwest
winds. Highs Saturday in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Surface high pressure will build into the region for this weekend
promoting clearing skies and warmer temperatures. Effective
radiational cooling will drop Saturday night lows into the 30s, to
potentially the 20s for the cooler locations, then rebound Sunday
with high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s (cooler by the
lakeshores). On Sunday, near-critical RHs (relative humidity) are
expected to return across much of northern Michigan in the afternoon
with generally light winds gusting 10-15 mph-- Something to keep an
eye on for potential elevated fire danger Sunday. Temperatures will
continue to warm into next week with forecasted highs into the upper
70s, to even perhaps the low 80s for southern locations, depending
on where surface features set-up.

An upper-level low centered across southern California at the start
of the period, will progress northeast across the Midwest into the
Great Lakes as upstream troughing approaches the area Tuesday/
Tuesday night. Resultant surface low pressure looks to track through
Wisconsin and the western U.P., bringing shower and thunder chances
to the area Monday through Tuesday. SPC has areas west of I-75 in a
15% to 29% probability for severe weather at the beginning of next
week (Monday). Looking at forecasted soundings, a good amount of
moisture is being advertised for the area with PWAT values of
1.10+". A more progressive pattern should shunt this moisture
eastward quickly, potentially limiting the timeframe for heavier
rainfall. However, these features can track to different locations
and push the best theta-e advection to our north (limiting
rainfall), therefore,  will continue to watch how guidance trends.
For now, it looks like the heavier precipitation looks to focus
across the tip of the Mitt and the eastern U.P. Shower and thunder
potential doesn`t end there, as Monday night into Tuesday shows
signs of strong wind fields aloft with better theta-e advection into
the region. This looks like it could be a two hitter scenario where
round one comes earlier in the morning and then round two later in
the day as an attendant cold front to the aforementioned low tracks
through... This is all very subject to change so be sure to check
back with the forecast and remain weather aware as we head into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1027 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Mixture of MVFR to IFR conditions to continue under low clouds
and mist early this morning. Gradual improvement expected after
sunrise, with skies trending clear from west to east during the
afternoon. North to northwest winds will be gusty at times
today, with winds becoming light tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ345-346.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...MSB