078
FXUS63 KAPX 020505
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
105 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Near freezing overnight temperatures will lead to patchy frost
development across the northern lower.

-Seasonably cool temperatures continue this week with periodic
rain and frost/freeze chances through the entirety of the
forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Surface conditions remain dry today as a brief midlevel ridge builds
over the Great Lakes region. Mostly clear skies are expected today
through this evening combined with a cool Canadian cP influence,
leading to frost developing during the early overnight hours before
warm air advection begins to build Sunday morning. Large scale 500mb
closed low pressure currently centered over the Ontario/Quebec
border will continue to influence the northwoods as embedded waves
of energy drag across the Great Lakes region through the remainder
of the forecast period.

Forecast Details:

Frost development this evening/tonight... The aforementioned low
amplitude ridge over the Midwest today will lead to mostly clear
skies and dry weather. H8 temperatures below freezing will mix down
to the surface this afternoon, keeping high temperatures in the
upper 40s via adiabatic heating processes. Only concern with the
forecast in terms of impactful weather through the first 24 hours
remains the potential frost development this evening. Clear skies
will allow efficient radiational cooling to drop temperatures to the
mid/low 30s before midnight. Cloud cover then builds as warm air
advection begins to warm Northern Michigan to the low 40s by 12Z
Sunday. Most likely places for frost development remain the
typically cooler locales of higher terrain interior Northern Lower
Peninsula.

Seasonably cool temperatures with periodic precipitation chances
next week... The first round of light rainfall returns Sunday as a
weak vorticity maximum over Northern Ontario extends moisture into
the Great Lakes Region. Light precipitation will spread across the
CWA with totals of only a tenth of an inch or less of liquid by
Sunday night. Additional QPF remains on Tuesday as another 500mb
shortwave digs across the northern plains through the Great Lakes
region. Latest guidance depicts frontal development directly over
the CWA, keeping the highest probabilities of 24hr rainfall between
0.10 and 0.25 with locally higher amounts if convection is able to
develop. Lingering low-level moisture behind the front will continue
to remain over Northern Michigan as the aforementioned trough axis
is positioned directly over Michigan. Light rain/drizzle will likely
remain in the forecast through midweek next week as this cool and
cloudy pattern continues into early May.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR. Light and variable winds tonight. Lots of SKC for much of
Saturday with a persistent W to NW breeze, generally 10 to
15kts by the afternoon. Some stronger gusts possible in the
evening before winds taper a bit into the overnight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018-
     020>036-041-042-099.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ098.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...HAD