631
FXUS63 KAPX 030646
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
146 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Light scattered showers track across Eastern Upper today.

-Rounds of rainfall expected to track across the region Thursday
through Saturday.

-Quiet and dry weather continues next week with temperatures well
above normal for early March.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Midlevel longwave troughing remains
spanned across Canada while heights across the Midwest show a more
zonal flow pattern. Low-level atmospheric temperatures continue to
warm today as a mild air mass builds across the CWA from the
southwest. The surface pattern remains primarily dry across the CWA
while boundaries develop across southern Ontario and through the
Ohio Valley, bringing snow to the north and rain to the south.

Dry conditions continue through Wednesday with temperatures climbing
well above normal for early March. The pattern turns more active
Thursday through Saturday as multiple shortwaves develop over the
Central Plains and lift through the Midwest. The first disturbance
on Thursday will track through the Ohio Valley and spread light
rainfall north. More widespread and heavy precip is expected with
the second system Friday afternoon through Saturday, as guidance
depicts high QPF with enough instability to support potential
convection.

The long-range pattern returns to quiet weather early next week as
low-amplitude longwave troughing remains spread across Canada and
zonal flow remains straddled across the Great Lakes region. This
pattern will likely support surface high pressure and temperatures
well above seasonal norms.



Primary Forecast Concerns:

-Light scattered showers track across Eastern Upper today... Light
southwest flow will continue warm air advection across the CWA. As a
result, temperatures will climb slightly above normal with highs
around 40 across Northern Lower and Eastern Upper, while Eastern
Upper remains in the mid 30s. The majority of the CWA is expected to
remain dry. A stationary boundary extends across the Ohio Valley and
another boundary remains north of the border over southern Ontario.
Enough low level saturation extends south across Eastern Upper this
afternoon, producing a few scattered rain and snow showers. Only a
trace or so is expected however as surface temperatures remain
near/above freezing should melt any falling snow.

-Rounds of rainfall expected to track across the region Thursday
through Saturday...Light precip spreads this Thursday driven by the
previously mentioned disturbance tracking through the Ohio Valley.
Latest hi-res guidance depicts a more southerly track compared to
yesterdays forecast, thus leading to even lesser amounts of QPF. Any
appreciable rainfall will remain south of the CWA, with a gradient
forming across M-32 and southward only observing a general tenth or
less. Most rainfall is expected with the Friday/Saturday system, as
highest probabilities of rainfall are between a quarter to half
inch. Rainfall pattern will be more uneven compared to Thursdays
forecast, as decent low level CAPE values and moderate mid level
lapse rates create convective driven showers with even some embedded
thunderstorms. One thing to look out for is locally higher amounts
of precip supported by a warm moist layer and PWAT`s approaching an
inch. This could lead to some ponding due to clogged/poor drainage
from any un-melted snowpack.

-Quiet and dry weather continues next week with temperatures
 well above normal for early March... Previously mentioned zonal
 midlevel flow will support overall dry weather and quiet
 conditions Sunday and beyond. Cold air locked to the north will
 keep the entire CONUS under a more mild Pacific air mass
 influence. Latest blended models have been trending upward,
 with highs in the 50s across most areas beyond Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions expected to continue. Broken deck of cirrus early
this morning, with more mid level clouds likely developing
trough the morning. Cigs expected to scatter out some this
afternoon and evening. Light winds through the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MSB