351
FXUS63 KAPX 062358
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
658 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for LES in typical snowbelt locations tonight.

- Turning milder Sunday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

Forecast Pattern... A very weak and washed out trailing front will
shift winds slightly to the west as it approaches this evening and
early tonight. This feature will help reestablish LES tonight,
however snow showers should remain light and will have a difficult
time dropping an inch in the lower peninsula. Snow will be tapering
off Friday morning over NL, however EU will see snow chances
continue into Friday due to an approaching shortwave and a north
push near the surface. NW winds become breezy to slightly gusty
Friday.

Forecast Details... Higher confidence exists for the lower amounts
of LES with the trailing front tonight. The features is currently
seen over northern WI and is already washed out. It is attached to a
1004 mb low with little to no upper level support. There is also
almost no environmental moisture with it. This leads to unfavorable
sounding profiles seen as shallow DGZ saturations. There are
slightly more favorable profiles over EU, leading to a better
chances of more persistent LES into Friday. All of this results in
higher confidence for snow accumulations of around a inch or less
for NL and up to 3 inches for EU tonight through Friday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

A fairly quiet stretch of weather is anticipated during the long
term portion of the forecast with just a couple of possible small
exceptions. Remaining seasonably chilly through Saturday followed by
moderating temperatures to close out the weekend Sunday. Nearly
zonal flow aloft is then expected during the first half of next week
so temperatures are expected to be well above normal, with some
spots perhaps reaching well into the 50s during the Tuesday to
Wednesday time frame (could even see it hit 60 near Saginaw Bay
Tuesday). Not a whole lot of sensible weather is expected for the
most part over the next several days. A little lake effect (in the
form of snow showers) Friday night into Saturday night, perhaps
enhanced by a passing short wave or two. Another wave moving by to
the north may bring eastern upper a few snow showers Sunday
afternoon. Not a whole lot going on after that (besides the warmer
temperatures) with rather quiet weather anticipated as systems
likely pass by to our north and south. Low end chances for a few
showers Wednesday afternoon as a front potentially sinks southward
across the region but moisture looks rather limited so have capped
pops at slight chance for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 657 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected across most of northern Michigan through
the issuance period. The exception may be across eastern upper and
far northern lower Michigan in closer proximity to better moisture
potentially holding onto BKN cloud cover and MVFR CIGs through this
evening. Largely precip-free conditions are anticipated at northern
lower Michigan TAF sites as well, with a brief period of snow
showers in store for the eastern U.P. this evening. West-northwest
winds look to remain in place into Friday evening, with sustained
speeds around 10kts and gusts to 15-20 kts at times.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for LHZ346-347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...DJC