345
FXUS63 KAPX 211723
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1223 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers (rain/snow) over the EUP, especially tonight.

- A few showers Saturday, with milder weather ahead.

- Watching potential for colder and unsettled weather for mid
  to late week next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Split flow across the western US...with 140+kt upper jet punching
into the PacNW; some of this energy sinking southward along the
coast of California, resulting in broad troughing across the
southwestern US, including a lobe lifting through the southern Plains
     .while additional energy tracks northward overtop a subtle ridge
over the Intermountain West. Potent upper low over Manitoba/western
Ontario with a lobe swinging through the Upper Midwest/Upper Great
Lakes attm with quite a cold punch of air aloft (500mb temps in the -
30s C to our north). Surface cold front stretches from James Bay
back into Iowa...with a secondary front draped across the Canadian
Prairies at 01z/21. Broad upper ridge remains firm over the
southeastern US...with quite a bit of warmth and moisture over the
southern half of the US. Confluence zone aloft stretches from west
to east across the Midwest into Michigan...as these two features
battle for dominance...though attm...cooler, drier air from the
trough is winning...as moisture struggles to make it further
northward than the Mid MS Valley per IR satellite.

Expect lobe to continue to sweep through...with attendant cold front
exiting early this morning. Broader upper low to swirl by to our
northeast today...though an additional lobe of PV should spiral down
toward the area this afternoon into tonight, with another uptick in
lake effect likely across the area, particularly the further north
you go. Highs today perhaps a touch cooler than yesterday`s with the
cold advection...in the 40s for the most part (warmest near Saginaw
Bay)...which is near normal.

Primary Forecast Concerns through tonight:

Lingering rain/snow chances today...Primary focus for precipitation
today will be the EUP, perhaps into the Tip of the Mitt, closer to
the better forcing and cold advection...as well as colder air aloft
for better overlake instability on NW flow. Still watching some
signals for an fgen band to develop across the EUP late this
afternoon/tonight after dusk, particularly as winds should diminish
and could allow for drainage flow out of Ontario. Think this will
largely be in the form of snow, especially after dark...with a few
tenths or so at best...but cloud top temps should be flirting with
about -10C or so, suggesting a lower chance we could lack ice nuclei
and remain drizzle or a mix.

Outside chance of some stronger gusts at times today if we can mix
deeply enough...though the question is, will we get there? Primarily
expecting 20-25kts or less, and this is what probabilistic guidance
based on bufkit soundings suggest. However...there is a 30-40+kt jet
around 700mb at the inversion...and some deterministic soundings
suggest we could tap into this, particularly in favored NW flow
areas (EUP to northern Lake Huron). Not confident enough attm to put
this in the forecast, but may need to keep a eye on this idea today
just in case.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Days 2-3 (Saturday-Sunday)...

Subtle ridging slips in Saturday...ahead of our next niblet of
energy crossing the Plains...bringing a round of warm advection
activity to the region, perhaps with a bit of SW flow lake
enhancement, particularly in the afternoon into Saturday night.
While the front should be on its way out Sunday morning...think we
may need to keep an eye on some lingering clouds/lake effect,
particularly across the eastern UP where temps aloft will be most
favorable for overlake instability.

Days 4-7 (Monday-Thanksgiving Day)...

Northern and southern stream not quite in phase to start
Thanksgiving week Monday...with remnants of an upper low over the
central Plains...and a potent punch of PV digging into the PacNW.
Overall expectation for next week is for troughing to settle into
the Upper Midwest mid to late week, with a storm system (possibly
two?) crossing the central/eastern US...with brisk northwesterly
flow expected to develop at some point over the Midwest. Think we
will be milder for the first part of the week, with rain a more
likely scenario until the cold air wraps in and the lake effect
machine kicks on...with potential for some strong/gusty winds,
pending the position/evolution of the surface low.

Still quite a bit of disparity in guidance on the evolution of the
midweek trough...noting deterministic guidance has flip-flopped a
bit from last night`s runs. Still think there are a couple scenarios
in play -- a) upper wave closes off over the Upper MS Valley,
resulting in a longer period of nebulous flow/low pressure in the
vicinity which could throw a wrench in pinning down lake effect
details (timing and position of bands...transition to snow...and
potentially accumulations, with enough shifting of winds). b) The
more progressive solution, a more open wave, zips through...bringing
the colder air in a day or so quicker...perhaps even spinning up the
surface low to our northeast a bit quicker as well, which could
crank up the lake machine quicker, too.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Lingering MVFR ceilings will trend to VFR with occasional gusts
20-25 knots possible through early evening. Winds will decrease
and turn more northerly tonight, then turn southwest and
accelerate by the end of the period. VCSH and light showers will
persist at CIU through the period with PLN light shower chances
diminishing after 00z Saturday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...NSC