144
FXUS63 KAPX 072001
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
401 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions remain into tonight.

- Snow showers linger into Tuesday.

- Some snow possible across southern parts of the forecast area late
Wednesday - Thursday.

- Warmer temperatures expected this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Trough axis crossing the region attm with inflection point to our
north; another niblet of PV crossing the central UP attm,
maintaining convective snow showers across the central UP...eking
into parts of northern Michigan as 925mb temps fall below -8C...and
diurnal heating ala early April sun continues to mix things a bit.
Surface low now over eastern Lake Huron/Georgian Bay, continuing to
deepen a smidgen as shortwave trough tries to lift...with tight
northerly pressure gradient over our region...and sustained winds
ramping up to 15-25kts areawide as a result. Drier air beginning to
ooze in as 1030mb surface high moves into Manitoba/western Ontario.

Aforementioned PV max to dive through the area this afternoon,
keeping snow showers around through the remainder of the day. Snow
showers look to restrict themselves closer to the typical lake band
areas overnight...with subtle N to NNW shift through the night.
Another PV max slips down the flow on the backside of the trough
early Tuesday morning...boosting convective activity across the area
yet again as we remain cool aloft. Some signals for a boost in NNW
flow convergence Tuesday that could certainly lead to more vigorous
snow showers at times...particularly if signals for weaker stability
with this comes to fruition. Attm...expecting around an inch with
this...but those signals for better stability do have me concerned
for a couple inches or more of snow in total by tomorrow afternoon
beneath any better NW flow banding that sets up...including some
lower potential over toward Alpena/Ossineke compared to the usual NW
flow bands downwind of GT Bay and Manistee (those those areas are
favored as well).

Winds to remain brisk through the night as pressure gradient will
only slowly decrease...sustained 10-20kts, gusting 20-30kts...better
pressure gradient could certainly keep gusts up through the
overnight compared to usual. Will look for things to begin to quiet
down through Tuesday as col region slips overhead between departing
low pressure and high pressure slipping across the area. Return flow
to begin to take hold by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Do have some concerns that the fresh snow pack could lead to a
chillier night than anticipated across the EUP...especially combined
with the northerly flow. Not a ton of confidence in this idea attm
as it looks to stay largely cloudy...and with the better pressure
gradient over that way to keep things a bit better mixed, perhaps.
Did keep the EUP on the lower side, though...nearer to 10F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Pattern Forecast: At the start of the period Tuesday night,
amplified troughing exists over the eastern third of North America.
Upstream ridging centered just lee of the Rockies with additional
troughing over the Pacific Northwest. Heights rise, at least breifly
Tuesday night, before another wave dampens heights across the Great
Lakes. Sfc low pressure associated with this wave likely to pass
through the southern Lakes/Ohio Valley Wednesday - Thursday, perhaps
scraping parts of the forecast area with a bit of rain/snow before
exiting stage right Thursday night. Ridging builds across the
nation`s midsection this weekend with temperatures favored to warm
above normal by Sunday.

Forecast Details: Initial focus revolves around incoming clipper
system later Wednesday through Thursday. While the vast majority of
associated precip with this wave is expected to pass by to our
south, latest trends do support at least some potential for wintry
weather across southern reaches of the forecast area. Highest
probabilities near and south of a line from Frankfort to Alpena --
maximized toward the M-55 corridor, and even higher downstate.
Current confidence supports an inch or two of wet snow (again,
higher totals possible downstate), but would still expect some
refinement over the next 48-60 hours.

Beyond this system, generally more tranquil conditions return to
wrap up the week into the weekend with a gradual warming trend
really taking hold over the weekend.  High temps in the upper 40s-
low 50s Friday moderate Saturday into the 50s and perhaps low 60s
for some by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Breezy N/NNW winds continue through the
afternoon/evening...sustained 15-20kts, gusting 25-35kts, slowly
waning with time going into Tuesday morning. Not impossible some
places, esp APN, could end up with a subtle LLJ of 20-30kts around
2kft overnight. Otherwise...snow showers to continue to expand
across the area this afternoon...to become more focused into NNW
flow lake effect snow showers tonight. Some signals for a more
potent NNW flow band in vc of TVC Tuesday morning into midday toward
end of TAF period. Cigs/vsbys generally IFR to MVFR through the
period, trying to break into VFR in spots during the day today.
Best potential for VFR tonight at CIU and maybe PLN. Some LIFR
possible in better snow bands tonight/Tuesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ346.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ341.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...FEF