718
FXUS63 KAPX 060858
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
358 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet today, Breezy and Rainy Tonight

- Colder this weekend, first shot at widespread accumulating snow
Saturday through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 357 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

NW flow across the US (120+kt upper jet)...with ridge axis across
the west...and negatively tilted trough axis across the northeastern
US. Punch of PV that brought rain yesterday now out across New
England...with cold front stretching down into the southern US. High
pressure across the central US...as warm advection creeps eastward
from beneath the ridge. Additional disturbances upstream in the
PacNW on nose of a 120kt upper jet advecting moisture off the
Pacific. Much colder air to our north behind a surface cold front
draped across central Canada; 850mb temps falling below -20C across
northern Manitoba. 850mb temps are down here, though not as
dramatically at this time. -4C temps aloft allowing for overlake
instability and continued NW flow lake effect showers, mostly rain,
but some snow mixing in (per the Saults).

Ridge axis and attendant surface high build in this morning...but
return flow will already be strengthening across the Upper Midwest
this afternoon...ahead of our next disturbance making its way into
the northern Plains on the nose of that PacNW jet. Surface cyclone
will deepen as it crosses the Upper Midwest tonight...likely poised
just to our northwest by 12z Friday...with a cold front draped down
through the MS Valley. Expect some rain (snow?) development Thursday
night, particularly across the EUP, with an area of showers
spreading in from the west overnight ahead of the cold front.

Primary Forecast Concerns through day:

Rain (with flakes?) tonight... Noting this system is likely to end
up further north/west, and become organized upstream of us compared
to the last one...think the bulk of the warm advection precip will
stay to our north late this afternoon into the evening...with cold
front-driven precip on our doorstep as early as midnight. Signals
for a dry layer from the surface through 700mb suggest it may take a
bit for things to fully saturate, and this could slow precip onset.
If we end up with more lingering low clouds than anticipated...do
wonder if we will see any seeder-feeder processes come into play in
the evening. Additionally...also wonder if the dry layer will lend
itself to enough evaporative cooling that a few spots could start as
snow? This idea is probably a little farther out there, but we
probably will be a little cooler through the day to begin
with...though we should warm up through the night enough to end up
as all rain.

Winds tonight...No rest for the weary...as we will be looking at
another round of gales by late evening/tonight...as S/SW low-level
jet ramps up. Potential for this to reach 40kts, perhaps even up
toward 50kts at 850mb, and do have some concerns about this being
mixed down this evening into the overnight as the LLJ moves overhead
ahead of the cold front. Signals for a subtle trough axis to lift in
(warm front?) during the evening suggest winds could initially take
on a slightly SE component, which could keep the strongest gusts
further off the coast...but with the LLJ moving eastward over the
nearshores...think the nearshores will come under the gales as well.
Could also see a period of gales near Saginaw Bay late tonight as
well, though there is less certainty in this attm.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 357 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025

Surface low passes to our north Friday, dragging a cold front
through the region. A niblet of energy digs down from Ontario but
attm appears to just scrape us...as one more shortwave trough exits
the western continent Friday night. Increasingly longitudinal flow
develops over the continent at this point...resulting in this first
niblet digging southward into the central Plains...as Arctic energy
takes the opportunity to dig southward toward the Upper Great Lakes
Saturday and Saturday night. This will allow for surface
cyclogenesis in the OH Valley going into Sunday...with increasing
northerly, cold flow diving into the Great Lakes to start the work
week...a favorable setup for lake effect snow. Ridging slowly builds
eastward across the central CONUS Monday night into Tuesday ahead of
another disturbance crossing central Canada...which may bring us a
reprieve from the unusually deep trough that will be in the area to
start the week.

Primary concern for the extended is potential for our first
accumulating snow of the season. While there could be a few snow
showers with the niblet Friday night/Saturday, the primary concern
will be Saturday night through Monday as we deal with this complex
system/pattern. Overall, though, setup appears favorable for better
QPF potential, noting signals for weaker stability overall
(particularly as we get into Sunday with the arctic air digging in),
on top of the still-warm lakes (around 10-12C attm)...and we should
not be wanting for forcing with both the strong PV maxima diving in,
along with mesoscale forcing from frontogenesis with this expected
clash of air masses...which could lead to some localized heavier
bands of snow Saturday night into Sunday behind the OH Valley
surface low. Signals attm point strongly toward northerly flow,
suggesting the greatest accumulations through the weekend/early next
week should be focused closer to the coasts rather than the
interior...though will need to keep a close eye on wind directions
going forward for exact bullseyes. While that /could/ temper
snowfall amounts, given the well-above freezing lakes attm, have
concerns we could see snowfall rates overcome this. Will certainly
be something to keep an eye on going forward....and if this idea
verifies...will certainly be looking for ground truth reports to
help us out, as lake effect snow doesn`t always show up well on
radar out that way.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025

A stray MVFR cig/vsby may be possible in decaying lake effect
clouds/precip into Thursday morning. Otherwise VFR. LLWS will
ramp up late Thu evening at TVC/MBL, ahead of our next system.
Wnw to w breezes, a touch gusty at times on Thursday, but not as
much as Wednesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     LHZ345-346-349.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for
     LMZ344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...DJC/JZ