563
FXUS63 KAPX 221048
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
648 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm today with a southwesterly breeze.

- Cold front brings shower and embedded thunder chances tonight
  into Saturday, favoring the eastern Upper, the Straits, and
  tip of the Mitt.

- Noticeably cooler temperatures and occasional lake-induced
  shower chances early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Today looks to be the last quiet day for a while as high
pressure gradually slides east. Overnight clear skies and calm
winds supported the development of some patchy fog across
locations, which will to burn off quickly as the sun rises.
Southerly flow on the backside of the high will allow for a
modest warmup, with afternoon highs pushing into the upper 70s
and low 80s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Cloud cover will
increase through the evening in response to a cold front
approaching the area.

A cold front tied to a deepening upper-level trough sliding
into the Great Lakes will bring our next chances for
precipitation. While overall moisture profiles along and ahead
of this front are somewhat limited, convergence along it should
drive at least a broken band of showers and perhaps a few
embedded thunderstorms through our area along and ahead of the
front. The most favorable area for more widespread shower and
thunder coverage continues to favor eastern upper and the tip of
the Mitt, with scattered showers expected elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Behind the front, a much colder airmass will spill into the
region. Highs on Sunday will largely be in the upper 60s to low
70s, with nighttime temperatures dropping into the upper 40s to
low 50s. Persistent post frontal northwest flow will also favor
occasional lake induced rain showers. Conditions remain on the
cooler side through early next week, with Monday and Tuesday
both featuring highs in the 60s and the continued chances for
isolated light showers, especially in favored northwest flow
areas. By midweek, surface high pressure is expected to return,
bringing drier weather and gradually moderating temperatures.
Highs should rebound into the low 70s by Wednesday with
overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 647 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Patchy FG/BR across parts of northern Michigan will dissipate in the
next few hours, leaving VFR conditions in place at all TAF sites
through this evening. Scattered showers and potential embedded
storms look to move into eastern upper late this evening into
Saturday morning. MVFR CIGs associated with this activity may also
move into CIU late in the issuance period. Otherwise, west-southwest
winds between 5-10 kts will be in place today with lake breeze
formation likely pushing inland from the Lake Huron shoreline later
this afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC