705
FXUS63 KAPX 300536
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
136 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An extended period of mostly quiet weather is expected behind
  a cold front that will cross the area this evening.
  Temperatures will be a touch below normal behind the front for
  a few days, before trending a little above normal to start
  next week.

- Smoke from Canadian wildfires will spill across the area for
  midweek behind the front, especially across eastern Upper
  Michigan.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Pattern Synopsis: The Great Lakes region lies within a faster
zonal upper-level flow regime between flat ridging over much of
the lower 48 states and troffing centered over Hudson Bay. A
surface cold front within the faster flow will cross the area
this evening. The upper-level flow will amplify by later in the
period as the ridging retrogrades to western North America and
troffing shifts to the east.

Forecast Details: A few spotty showers are possible until the
cold front clears the area this evening, but most locations will
remain dry. Otherwise, cooler and less humid air will filter
into the area through the period. Will need to keep an eye on a
storm complex that will be tracking east from the Plains later
Wednesday. Can`t rule out some showers/storms brushing extreme
southern portion of the forecast are late Wednesday into
Wednesday night, but current thinking is that most of this
precipitation will stay over southern Lower Michigan.

An increase in Canadian wildfire smoke is expected behind the
cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Pattern Synopsis: Forecast area is expected to remain in the
northwesterly flow aloft between the ridging over western North
America and troffing in the east until at least early next week.
This upper-level pattern will be accompanied by surface high
pressure. The pattern begins to break down early next week with
heights rising again across the area.

Forecast Details: Surface high pressure and flow out of Canada
will help keep area mostly rain free and a touch on the cool
side through the end of the week. Low rain chances return early
next week as the pattern begins to break down, accompanied by
warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Expecting VFR conditions through the TAF period under increasing
mid/high cloud today. Possible exception to this is low
probabilities (< 20%) for patchy FG/BR at KMBL over the next few
hours. Otherwise, just a rogue shower possible this afternoon, again
at KMBL, as a decaying MCS passes by to the south. Light winds
through early this morning look to become a touch gusty out of the
north this afternoon.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...PBB
AVIATION...MSB/MJG