846
FXUS63 KAPX 200311
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1111 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers over northern lower tonight, more numerous
  south of M-72.

- Feels like fall, a stretch of cooler temperatures.  Patchy frost
possible early next week.

- Extended dry period, with limited rain chances next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

West/northwest upper flow across the Great Lakes, as shortwave
energy ejects eastward out of the western CONUS trough, with
high pressure anchored over south central parts of the country.
A quasi-stationary boundary over the northern Ohio Valley
continues to be the focusing mechanism for areas of heavy rain,
with most of this activity remaining well south of our area.
Cool, Canadian high pressure will become the dominate weather
player as we head into next week, with a modified Rex block over
the center of the country as low pressure slips underneath the
ridge.

Low pressure sliding along the boundary to our south will help to
wobble the boundary a little further north tonight, along with a
weakish mid level inverted trough swinging across the area.  This
will briefly push deeper moisture northward toward northern lower,
resulting in a few showers (sprinkles?), most numerous south of M-
72. Still some question marks as to how far north precipitation may
push given the persistent dry, low level easterly flow.  Either way,
any rain amounts will be very light. Any lingering precipitation
ends early Sunday, as drier air begins to push into the area
from the north with increasing influence of Canadian high
pressure.

This begins a relatively benign weather period across northern
Michigan as high pressure largely keeps any rain chances west/south
of the area. We will see a few days of seasonably cool
temperatures and breezy conditions early in the week, with the
thermal trough swinging across the northern Lakes. Monday will
be the coolest day with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s,
setting us up for a very cool and possibly frosty night in at
least some interior areas (if the winds decouple). A gradual
moderation in temperatures throughout the week as the surface
high slowly pushes east and weak return flow allows milder air
to gradually work back into northern Michigan. Minimal rain
chances throughout the week, with the next better chance of rain
possibly coming next weekend or early the following the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Light showers will continue to track from west to east across the
lower peninsula tonight, ending by Sunday morning. Associated
IFR/low MVFR CIGs are also expected to persist across areas closer
to mid Michigan -- particularly MBL and TVC -- and eventually lift
Sunday morning/early afternoon, returning all areas to VFR through
the remainder of the issuance period. Light/calm winds tonight will
increase out of the northeast Sunday morning to around 10 kts with
gusts to 15-20 kts at times during the afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     LHZ346-347.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     LHZ348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...DJC