831
FXUS63 KAPX 172337
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
737 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool lows tonight with dry weather through Friday.

- Rain chances return late Friday night through Saturday.

- Largely dry Sunday through the first half of the week with
  gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing centered over the eastern Great Lakes will
continue to slide over the St. Lawrence River and the far northeast
CONUS tonight. The associated surface cyclone will trek across
southern Quebec through Friday morning. Meanwhile, subsidence aloft
behind the departing system will build surface high pressure from
the Upper Midwest squarely over the Great Lakes by Friday.

Forecast Details:

Ongoing light rain/drizzle across parts of northern Michigan will
diminish over the next several hours as northwest winds advect drier
air into the region, eventually clearing out clouds this evening and
tonight. High pressure building overhead will lead to calm winds
overnight. The combination of clearing skies and calm winds will
support efficient radiational cooling, setting the stage for a cool
night across the Northwoods. Interior low-lying areas may see
temperatures dip into the low to mid 40s early Friday morning with
more mild readings in the low 50s anticipated against the
lakeshores. Patchy fog may develop as well, aided by recent
rainfall. Warmer temperatures are in store for the area on Friday
with highs in the mid 70s for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast Details:

A low-amplitude shortwave embedded in largely zonal flow aloft will
punch over the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday night. Forcing
provided by this feature will generate disorganized surface pressure
falls across the region, driving our next chances for rain. While
isolated to scattered showers are possible, better rain coverage is
currently anticipated further downstate. Rain chances look to
diminish Saturday night as the shortwave departs. Mid/upper-level
ridging looks to fold over the region late Sunday and Monday,
building surface high pressure across the Great Lakes late this
weekend through early next week. Rain chances will remain low during
that stretch with subsidence overhead, but look to increase through
the middle of next week as upstream convection tracking into the
region becomes more likely. Temperatures also look to gradually warm
through the period, going from highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on
Sunday into the mid 80s to even low 90s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 737 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Northerly winds will decrease through the evening to become
variable and calm overnight. VFR conditions are expected through
the evening into tonight with chances for patchy fog to develop
into the morning hours. Any fog that develops should quickly
burn off as the sun rises in the morning. Light and variable
winds will continue into Friday as high pressure builds
overhead.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ020-
     025-031-099.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...NSC