125
FXUS63 KAPX 280710
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
310 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and breezy today, resulting in dangerous swimming
  conditions along portions of the shoreline.

- Seasonable temperatures through the week with rain chances by
  late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Any lingering showers will continue to diminish through the
predawn hours as the departing low pulls farther into eastern
Canada and surface high pressure begins building southeast into
the Great Lakes. This marks the beginning of a quiet stretch of
weather through at least the latter half of the work week as
Canadian High pressure settles overhead beneath a persistent
northwest flow aloft. While the larger scale upper-level pattern
may fluctuate somewhat with time, little overall change is
expected through much of the forecast period, favoring a
continued stretch of generally dry and seasonable conditions.

Today looks pleasant with sunshine building in through the day
and lower humidity levels, although a tightening pressure
gradient between the aformentioned exiting low and incoming high
pressure will support breezy north-northwest winds through much
of the day. Gusts should be sufficient enough to build waves
along portions of the Lake Michigan and Lake Huron shoreline,
where hazardous swimming conditions may develop. Winds look to
ease Tuesday night as high pressure works overhead, allowing for
efficient radiational cooling. The coolest morning s appear to
be Wednesday and Thursday, when several of the traditional
colder interior locations could dip into the 40s before quickly
rebounding after sunrise. Despite the cool starts, afternoon
temperatures should steadily moderate with many locations
climbing back into the 70s and 80s by Thursday under plentiful
sunshine.

Attention then turns toward late week and the weekend as
northwest flow persists and a couple of subtle disturbances
attempt to work southeast across the Upper Great Lakes.
Confidence remains lower regarding the timing and coverage of
any precipitation, though the current signal continues to favor
at least low chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
sometime Friday into Saturday. Outside of any passing
precipitation chances, temperatures should remain close to
seasonal normals through the weekend and into early next week
with no strong indication of prolonged heat or widespread
impactful weather at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

SHRA/TSRA activity is moving south and east of our TAF sites.
Periodic low clouds will be seen overnight, mostly MVFR, but
IFR/LIFR conditions have already settled in at CIU. Improving to
VFR Tuesday morning, with breezy north winds developing.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ030-031-
     036.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ347>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...JZ