368
FXUS63 KAPX 140628
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
228 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cool(ish) temperatures occupy Northern Michigan today and
 Wednesday.

-Overall quiet and dry weather continues this week besides very
minor shower potential tonight.

-Rounds of showers and rainfall return this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Current cold frontal boundary just east of
Michigan continues to progress eastward today, allowing for a
cool/dry air mass to settle into the region. Midlevel shortwave
riding pattern currently building across the center of the CONUS
will support surface high pressure and overall non-impactful
weather. At the same time, low pressure lee of the Rockies
returns some light shower chances later tonight as a warm front
spans across the plains into the Mississippi Valley.

Forecast Details...

Today...Overall quiet and cool weather will persist as midlevel
subsidence continues to build across the region. Biggest
feature that will be noticeably different than yesterday is the
cooler air airmass from the NW returning temperatures to near climo
averages for mid October. Highs are expected to remain in the
mid/upper 50s for most locations across the CWA. Winds remain
from the northwest with breezy conditions building in the
afternoon as pressure gradient force winds pinch the midwest
from high pressure NW of Lake Superior.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Wednesday and Thursday... Midlevel heights rise this Wednesday and
Thursday with the previously mentioned ridge axis centering itself
over the Great Lakes region. Northerly midlevel flow will keep
northwest flow and subsequent temperatures remaining around
climatological average for mid October. Highs remain around 60s
while clear skies and efficient radiational cooling drops overnight
lows near or below freezing Wednesday night.

Friday and Saturday...Guidance depicts 500mb troughing with closed
low pressure currently over central California progressing (while
weakening) northeast this week and landing over the Manitoba/Ontario
region this weekend. Warm advection into the midwest will return
light stratiform rain as early as Friday morning. Medium
probabilities (roughly 40% to 60%) of QPF totals near or less than a
quarter inch associated with the systems warm front. Another round
of showers appear to track across the Great Lakes Region Saturday as
the systems cold front progresses eastward. Saturdays environment
seems more ideal as enough lift and moisture advected from the
Gulf keeps highest probs of QPF between an additional quarter to
half inch on top of Friday.

Sunday and Monday Outlook...Guidance depicts another system
tracking through the Ohio Valley early next week as the
aformentioned tough axis digs across the eastern half of the
CONUS. Latest models depict additional stratiform rainfall over
the CWA from the systems deformation zone this Sunday. Too early
to advertise amounts or impacts, but highest probs of rainfall
totals remain at a quarter inch or less.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Cold front crossing northern lower will bring a few-hour period of
BR / FG and MVFR to IFR conditions and CIGs, brief LIFR at MBL.
Anticipating conditions to improve considerably to VFR into the day
Tuesday. Breeze NNW to N flow will prevail, with some gusts probably
approaching 20kts after 14z. Winds turn calmer in the evening,
with another disturbance bringing an increase in high clouds.
Perhaps some -SHRA late in the period at TVC and MBL... lesser
chances the farther north and east one goes at our TAF sites.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...HAD