505
FXUS63 KAPX 121739
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
139 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering shower/storm chances into this evening. Continued low
  threat for a severe storm.

- Smoky/hazy skies anticipated Sunday through at least Monday.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Negatively tilted mid-level wave is in
the process of crossing northern Michigan this afternoon with
attendant area of low pressure situated to our north over northern
Ontario. Initial lead shortwave and sfc cold front crossing northern
MI now with a secondary cold front still upstream over the central
U.P. and eastern WI. This latter boundary crosses this evening/early
overnight with higher surface pressures building in through the
remainder of the weekend.

Forecast Details: Through the remainder of the day today, still low
chances for an isolated strong to severe storm possible, primarily
over northeast lower MI where latest mesoanalysis yields 2,000-
3,000+ J/kg SBCAPE in an environment with modest deep layer shear
between 30-35 kts. Still looking at a primarily damaging wind threat
in any severe storms with continually decreasing, but still non-zero
tornado threat. Additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development is expected upstream in advance of the secondary cold
front over the central UP and northeast WI. Latest hi-res guidance
continues to trend this convection downward with time across
northern Lake Michigan owing to cooling mid-level temperatures and
resultant less instability. In addition, westerly low-level winds
post initial cold front should aid in limiting the amount of
effective shear for storm organization. That said, while additional
convection should be few and far between by the time it reaches the
forecast area this evening ahead of/along the cold front, a non-zero
chance for an additional strong storm can`t entirely be ruled out
into this evening across the eastern U.P. and northwest lower.

Secondary cold front expected to clear the entirety of the forecast
area later this evening/overnight with any lingering precip chances
ending. On tap for a generally tranquil day Sunday; however,
incoming smoke from Canadian wildfires will yield a hazy look versus
what would otherwise be a mostly sunny day. Some of this smoke may
translate to the surface at times with some minor visibility
restrictions possible. Some uncertainty as to the thickness of this
smoke and how it`ll translate to limiting daytime temperatures.
Current trends support maxTs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Pattern Forecast: More zonal flow aloft expected to prevail early
this coming week before another somewhat more pronounced wave
traverse the northern tier of the CONUS midweek. A weak moisture-
starved cold front/surface trough may approach and cross the area
Monday evening/night with a more notable boundary associated with
that secondary wave crossing mid-late week.

Forecast Details: A general reprieve in active weather expected
through the early week time frame, although not without some low-end
occasional precip chances. Those chances initially arrive late
Monday/Monday evening, although likely just an uptick in clouds
given the aforementioned boundary washing out as it approaches
northern MI. Some diurnally driven pop-up showers/storms can`t be
ruled out Tuesday before more numerous precip chances arrive at
times Wednesday through Thursday.

Smoke-allowing models suggest the potential for more hazy skies and
air quality issues at least through Monday.

Warmest temperatures of the week, smoke dependent, expected Monday-
Tuesday with highs into the 80s (near 90 for downsloping locales)
before cooling off mid-late week with more clouds/showers/storms.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Subtle front will continue to cross the region today with SW winds
gusting as high as 20-25kts through afternoon. Best chance for TSRA
will be east of I-75, esp APN and possibly PLN, between now and 23Z.
TVC/MBL could remain largely quiet with a few showers. Cigs
generally MVFR this afternoon and could bounce up to VFR with
clearing, but periods of IFR remain possible, esp with SHRA/TSRA.
Think there could be another quick shot of -SHRA or -TSRA over the
region in the 23z-04z time range as a secondary front crosses
the area, with light/variable or slightly WSW winds tonight.
Some lower cigs possible overnight (IFR/LIFR?) but should clear
up within a few hours after sunrise. Winds remain W/WSW at or
under 10kts Sunday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to noon EDT Monday for
     MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...FEF