442
FXUS63 KAPX 051006
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
606 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Favorable fire weather conditions continue today through the
 midweek.

-Seasonably cool temperatures today through the rest of the
 week will consistently bring frost/freeze concerns across
 Northern Michigan.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Large scale midlevel low pressured centered over Hudson Bay with
deep troughing extending through the eastern half of the CONUS.
Surface level low pressure with an attached cold front that
delivered last nights precipitation will continue to progress
northeast, resulting in cool cP air from the north to occupy the
Great Lakes Region today. As a result, climatologically cool
temperatures return to the CWA through the remainder of the work
week. 850mb temperatures at or below freezing will keep highs in the
40s and 50s while overnight lows stay in the 30s. Besides the
overnight frost/freeze concerns, conditions remain quiet today and
Wednesday as the trough base remains directly overhead of the Great
Lakes region and a midlevel jet max positioned over the Ohio Valley
keeps any moisture to the south. Light precipitation returns to the
forecast toward the end of the week as the aforementioned trough
axis progresses eastward and causes waves of energy to track across
the northwoods.

Forecast Details:

Elevated fire weather concerns continue today... Cool air being
pulled into the CWA today on the backside of last night`s cold front
via cold air advection remains atmospherically dry in the low
levels. Latest CAM guidance depicts dew points falling quickly into
the 20s this morning along with lingering strong low level winds to
efficiently mix down this afternoon. Even with highs in the low 50s
for most areas today, breezy afternoon surface gusts combined with
RH values near critical thresholds will continue concerns for
favorable fire weather conditions this afternoon. Afternoon dew
points in the low 20s/upper teens remain likely this Wednesday and
Thursday as well due to atmospheric moisture remaining cut off to
our south by the aforementioned jet max.


Seasonably cool temperatures through the rest of the week with
frost/freeze concerns... H8 temps tied to well advertised troughing
regime remain at or below freezing today through Friday. Adiabatic
heating processes keep highs in the 40s and 50s for the next few
days. Mostly clear skies will support efficient radiational cooling
process to drop overnight lows into the upper 20s/low 30s tonight
through Thursday night. Longwave midlevel troughing then shifts
eastward, rising heights over the Great Lakes Region and pivoting
small waves of energy over the northwoods. Light lingering
precipitation returns this Thursday and Friday along with returning
the Great Lakes region back to climatologically normal temperatures
for early May.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR expected through the TAF period Occasionally breezy west-northwest
winds expected mid-morning through this afternoon before winds turn
calm this evening through toniht.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MJG