032
FXUS63 KAPX 200414
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1214 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure set to bring dry and seasonably mild weather through
the remainder of this work week.

- Significant changes expected this weekend as strong cold front
  crosses the region...likely ushering in a fall-like airmass
  across the Northwoods into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Shortwave trough and its weak surface reflection exiting stage right
this afternoon, taking the rather welcoming fairly widespread
showers along with it. Still quite grungy out there, with
plentiful lingering low level moisture resulting in clouds
across the area, with even a few light lingering showers and
areas of drizzle/mist. Those clouds and light east flow have
again kept temperatures several degrees below specific normal
values for today`s date...with current readings mostly stuck in
the 60s.

Shortwave trough will continue to exit off to the southeast
tonight...with expanding upper level ridging gradually building
northeast into the upper Mississippi Valley and far western Great
Lakes Wednesday. Large area of surface high pressure will build
southeast into the region as deep layer subsidence develops on the
leading edge of that upper level ridge. This high will only slowly
move across the northern Great Lakes...looking to dominate our
weather for the remainder of this work week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Cloud/temperature trends through Wednesday and addressing any
lingering light shower concerns the remainder of this afternoon.

Details:

Any lingering light showers/drizzle should come to an end heading
through the remainder of this afternoon as forcing is lost and
mid/upper level drying increases. Clouds likely to be a bit slower
to mix out, with guidance derived soundings showing plenty of
lingering low level moisture below that mid level drying. Probably
see a few breaks in the overcast develop tonight, but by and large
expect mostly cloudy skies to prevail. This should keep temperatures
a smidge milder than they otherwise would be, with widespread lows
in the 50s to lower 60s. Deep layer subsidence and surface high
pressure continue to gradually exert more influence on our weather
heading through Wednesday. With that said, wouldn`t be surprised to
still see a decent strato-cu field lingering right through much of
the day as that lower level moisture begins to mix out with some
modest daytime heating. Highs Wednesday mostly in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Sprawling high pressure mentioned earlier will slowly work overhead,
likely taking to the end of Friday to finally push off to our east.
Focus thereafter is expected rapid amplification and retrogression
of the upper level flow regime, with sharp upper level ridge
building this weekend across western NOAM and subsequent deepening
troughing across the Great Lakes into northeast Canada. Above sets
up a direct avenue for a chilly fall-like airmass to drop into the
Northwoods from now rapidly cooling northern Canada. Almost full
suite of mid-range ensemble guidance is on-board with this idea
(still some uncertainty on just how amplified long-wave features
become)...definitely increasing confidence in this cooler scenario.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing rain potential as that weekend
pattern change takes shape.

Details:

Downright pleasant end to the work week expected, with mostly
sunny/clear skies, generally light winds, and a slowly modifying
overhead airmass. Looking to tack on a few degrees each afternoon,
with expected highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday...with
80s become more common on Friday. Still looking at the potential for
some rather chilly overnight lows both Wednesday night and Thursday
night giving those clear skies, light winds, and overhead dry
airmass. As mentioned the last few days, wouldn`t be surprised at
all to see our interior colder locations make a run into the 40s
(perhaps well so) both nights.

Strong, but relatively moisture starved cold front expected to slice
rapidly southeast across the region Friday night into early Saturday
driven by that rapid pattern amplification and subsequent
maturing northwest flow aloft. Despite limited moisture, simple
breadth of expected low level convergence should drive at least
a broken band of showers (embedded thunderstorms?) southeast
through our area Friday night into Saturday. Focus thereafter
becomes more of a temperature one, with post-frontal strong cold
air advection likely keeping highs both Sunday and Monday in
the 60s. Northwest winds and lake modification will keep
overnight lows a bit elevated, but 40s and 50s should be
commonplace. May even have to pull out the old lake effect
playbook as perusal of low level thermal profiles definitely
look cold enough to entice some lake moisture contribution.
Couple that with potential for some fast moving waves in that
northwest flow aloft and could be looking at periodic bouts of
light showers both Sunday and Monday. Definitely a hint of fall
as we round out this summer season.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Cloud cover and associated lowered CIGs will linger across parts of
northern Michigan tonight, improving around and shortly after
sunrise this morning. Patchy FG/BR development will be possible
where breaks in the clouds materialize overnight -- most likely CIU
and PLN at this time. North-northeast winds between 5-10 kts are
anticipated across the area today with VFR conditions expected for
all TAF sites by mid to late morning.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...DJC