866
FXUS63 KAPX 092334
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
634 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wet end of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Well defined split flow regime found across NOAM early this
afternoon, with north displaced northern stream centered across
central Canada...with a much more amplified and energetic southern
stream slicing across the Conus. Northern Michigan centered squarely
under upper level ridge of that southern stream, maintaining the dry
and seasonably mild conditions. Morning sun-filled skies starting
to give way to some increasing upper level clouds...the beginning
stages of high level moisture advection well ahead of closed upper
level low rotating northeast into the central Plains. This low and
its attendant weaker surface reflection will continue to work
northeast, cutting across the Northwoods later Sunday....returning
the threat for some wet weather as it does so.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing shower evolution tonight through
Sunday.

Details:

Top-down saturation will continue tonight as upstream low pressure
works its way northeast...reaching vicinity Iowa by sunrise Sunday.
Maturing isentropic upglide within this increasing moisture plume
should eventually drive an area of showers...mostly light...from
southwest to northeast into the area later tonight. Scattered to
numerous showers expected to continue through Sunday as low pressure
works right overhead...with perhaps even a bit of a lake component
helping shower generation later in the afternoon within post-frontal
cold air advection regime. As it looks now, any appreciable
instability should remain well to our south, keeping any thunder
threat across the Ohio Valley. Definitely not expecting any
significant rain totals given lack of deeper convection and what
should be gradually decaying deep layer forcing as whole upper level
system begins to open up. Seasonably mild stretch of weather will
continue...with lows tonight only dropping into the 30s and lower
40s...with highs on Sunday mostly in the lower and middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Progressive pattern continues into the long range. This is expected
to result in continued mild temperatures overall as well as periodic
chances for precipitation (mainly in the form of rain). No big or
long lasting systems expected at this time. Lingering rain showers
Sunday evening from the system moving across the region (see above).
Perhaps a break in the action overnight Sunday into the start of
Monday. Another short wave then quickly follows for Monday afternoon
as a deep area of low pressure tracks by to the north. Rain showers
once again are expected. However, strong cold air advection late in
the day into the evening will lead to gusty winds as well as a
possible mix with or change over to snow showers. High pressure then
follows for overnight Monday into at least Tuesday night leading to
seasonably mild temperatures as well as a break in the
precipitation. Another short wave will bring renewed rain chances
late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Quiet weather returns for late
week and the airmass looks like it will be mild enough to prevent
the formation of any lake effect processes. Highs through the period
are expected to be between 5 and 10 degrees above averages for the
date.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Worsening conditions Sunday.

Low pressure in the central plains will continue to move toward
the northern Great Lakes thru late Sunday. Higher clouds will
continue to thicken and lower. Some showers will break out late
tonight, especially in nw lower MI. Occasional light rain and
showers will occur on Sunday, and cigs will lower to MVFR to
IFR territory. VFR to MVFR vsbys.

Se winds will become a little breezier on Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JZ