482
FXUS63 KAPX 241711
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
111 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overnight low temperatures in the 30s tonight, local frost
  concerns

- Clouds, mild temperatures and rain chances for one more day on
Sunday, then a warming trend beginning Monday

- Precip free weather Monday and Tuesday, with rain and storm
chances beginning Wednesday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Satellite and the 00Z upper air analysis show an upper low has moved
off to the east, leaving light northwest winds and low clouds over
northern MI and no rain. Northwest flow over the northern plains
down towards the Ohio river valley will become more zonal today,
advecting some drier air over western areas of the lower penisula.
Skies will gradually scatter out over these areas in the afternoon
hours today, however low clouds with little chances for light rain
will linger over NE lower and parts of eastern upper during this
time. Clear skies, calm winds, and drier/cooler air near the surface
will create ideal condtions for radiational cooling for the
central Lk MI coast and inland areas tonight. Overnight lows
will likely drop into the mid 30s for these areas, with local
spots flirting with freezing temperatures. Moisture rotates
down from the U.P. early Sunday and could be quicker than
expected. A shortwave trough will move from north to south over
MI early Sunday (limiting frost concerns for eastern upper).
CAMs disagree on the timing of this feature by around 2
to 4 hours. Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Wexford, and Missaukee
counties have the better chances for frost conditions tonight
(60%+ chances for temperatures of 36F or lower), with chances
lowering the more north and east one moves. Did not issue a
frost advisory due to questions in how widespread Tds less than
32F will be (moisture intrusion from and earlier timing of the
shortwave trough, and/or uncertainty in how dry the airmass
moving in today will be).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

The shortwave will move through Sunday, retuning the clouds and
light rain. Temperatures will gradually warm, with highs in the high
50s and low 60s. Breezy northwest winds will be seen Sunday
afternoon. Rain chances and clouds will move out for Monday and
Tuesday, allowing temperatures to warm back into the high 60s and
70s for most of northern MI.

Warm and mild weather will not last too long, as another system is
forecasted to move over northern MI mid week next week. Rain and
storm chances will be seen Wednesday and Thursday, with warmer
temperatures persisting through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

Widespread VFR cigs across the northern Michigan terminal area
to start the 18Z TAF valid time. These CIGs will scatter out
late this afternoon or early this evening. A band of MVFR CIGs
may sink into KCIU late tonight into Sunday morning from the
north. Northwest winds, gusty at times into this evening, will
become light tonight. Wind speeds pick up again Sunday morning
as diurnal mixing increases.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...PBB