534
FXUS63 KAPX 070345
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather returns tonight.

- Warming temperatures and precipitation free weather for the
  later half of the week; Elevated fire danger possible
  Thursday/ Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

Pattern Synopsis: Persistent Omega block over the lower 48 states
finally breaks down tonight into early Wednesday as remnants of the
eastern cutoff low get kicked out of the area by a northern stream
diving across eastern Canada. At the surface a weak cold front sinks
south through the area tonight, followed by building high pressure
for Wednesday.

Forecast Details: Showers on the back side/deformation area of
weakening upper-level low will continue to fade/move out heading
into this evening. Once the showers end, a gradual clearing trend is
anticipated. Cooler air spills into the area behind a cold front
late tonight into Wednesday, but this front appears too moisture
starved to produce more than a band of clouds (although a few
sprinkles can`t be ruled out). Most of the area will be several
degrees cooler behind the front tomorrow, and the post frontal
airmass will also be accompanied by a period of gusty northerly
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

Discussion:

Upper heights start to rise late Wednesday into Thursday as an upper
ridge amplifies over eastern CAN and moves overhead. Dry air will
settle in Thursday behind a dry and weak side door front (from the
north). Winds will be gusty Thursday morning, but will weaken
throughout the midday and afternoon hours. High fire danger could be
realized mid day as temps warm, humidities drop, and winds remain
breezy. Skies will be mostly sunny. Mixing heights will be lower
(3kft or less) due to the cooler surface air. Clear skies and calm
winds will lead to below freezing temperatures area wide Friday
morning. Widespread frost could be seen due to the colder
temperatures.

Friday, the upper ridge continues to amplify. Sunny skies will be
seen, and will help surface temperatures warm into the high 60s (10
to 15 degrees warmer than Thursday). Mixing heights will rise to ~4-
5kft in the afternoon, and a lake breeze will be seen. The afternoon
will see very dry condtions (esp. over NE lower), which leads to
high fire danger concerns. Winds will be light and lake breeze
driven.

A trailing cold front will move through Saturday, but will likely
result in very little to no rain (mostly clouds). Winds will turn
west, with temperatures unaffected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

Primarily VFR at northern MI terminals tonight, although some
exceptions do exist at KAPN where periods of MVFR CIGs and some
reduced VSBYs in patchy fog will be possible tonight. Localized
fog also possible at MBL. MVFR CIGs may spread into KCIU
Wednesday morning. Light/variable winds tonight become
occasionally breezy at times out of the north Wednesday
afternoon.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PBB
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MJG