620
FXUS63 KAPX 101826
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
226 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More of the same, with warm conditions and periodic shower and
  storm chances into Tuesday.

- A bit less warm and humid Wednesday into Thursday, with more
  warming heading into into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Moisture rich and warm weather producing southwest flow continues
into northern Michigan early this afternoon. Mid/upper level flow
regime supporting this low level flow response, with the Northwoods
centered directly between slowly departing ridging and just as
slowly approaching northern Plains centered troughing. Weak cold
front extending north to south across Wisconsin along this
ridge/trough interface, with plume of instability and moisture
convergence running out ahead of it kicking off a few showers and
thunderstorms into the western Great Lakes. Otherwise, a warm and
dry one across most of our area...with current temperatures back up
into the 80s and even a few lower 90s.

Not a whole lot of significant change tonight through and Monday
night, with warm and humid conditions and periodic shower and
thunderstorm chances across the northern Great Lakes.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and lingering shower/storm potential.

Details:

Threat for a isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
continues into this evening. Lack of more direct forcing and shear
through the entirety of the convective layer should keep storm
organization limited. Still...cannot entirely rule out a stronger
storm or two capable of producing some gusty winds and marginally
severe size hail. Reorganization of low level jet overnight should
help expand shower/storm coverage as total mass convergence occurs
on the nose of this jet. Simple extrapolation of this corridor of
enhanced convergence shows it targeting eastern Wisconsin into
northern Lake Michigan and eventually eastern upper Michigan. Expect
better shower/storm coverage to occur in these regions, with more
disorganized and scattered activity further east. Again, not
expecting anything overly significant, but cannot rule out a
stronger storm or two...especially where that deep layer convergence
is maximized along that northward surging low level jet.

While low level jet dynamics are quickly lost early Monday morning,
warm and humid conditions ahead of that slowly approaching cold
front at least argues for continued scattered shower and
thunderstorms at times into Monday night. Definitely not sold on
anything too widespread or heavy as best mid level support remains
detached well northwest of the actual surface front.

As mentioned, warm conditions will continue...with lows tonight and
Monday night only dropping into the 60s and lower 70s. More clouds
and exit of warmest off the deck thermal anomalies should temper the
temperature response some during the daylight hours Monday, but
still looking at widespread highs in the 80s...with some areas on
the south side of the sunrise side perhaps making a run at 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

A period of change as upstream troughing finally ejects into and
through the area later Tuesday into Wednesday. Still support amongst
the mid-range guidance ensemble suite that northern extent of south
centered sub-tropical riding expands back north into the area later
in the week into the start of the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Main focus in the long term on temperature trends.

Details:

Still looking at some lingering showers and storms Tuesday with
intial cold frontal passage followed by arrival of main mid level
support. Trends continue to support a dry and more comfortable
weather regime Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures in the
70s to lower 80s and much less low level moisture. As mentioned
earlier it appears northern extent of sub-tropical riding will at
least attempt to build back north into the area during the end of
the week, bringing with it a return to above normal temperatures and
eventually a bit more humid conditions. Along with that heat and
humidity comes the potential for more showers and storms at times.
Again, utilization of pop enthusiastic guidance consensus blend
approach will feature what is likely a long too duration of rain
chances. Expect these to be fine-tuned as we approach that period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Generally SW/S winds around 10kts with G15kts through 02Z. Skies
mostly SCT-BKN with mixed heights. Medium chances for TSRA over
terminals after 21Z, with most seeing VCSH. NW lower terminals have
the best chances for TSRA from 21Z - 00Z. Shower activity will
linger through 12Z. MVFR/IFR conditions possible during TSRA. Winds
will be gusty and erratic near TS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ELD