315
FXUS63 KAPX 201045
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
645 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain showers develops tonight and Monday, perhaps
  with a rumble of thunder south.

- Cooler Tuesday before a warming trend commences the rest of
  the week.

- Rain chances Tuesday night and again Thursday night into
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...Widespread showers developing tonight...

Large area of high pressure remains centered over the Western Great
Lakes region early this morning...producing mainly clear skies and
light winds across Michigan. A few patches of low clouds are
streaming into northern and western portions of our CWA...but
overall wx is quiet and dry attm. Meanwhile...low pressure is
developing over Texas...generating widespread strong/severe storms
in the vcnty of this system.

As we head into today...this Texas low will lift NNE...reaching the
Iowa/Missouri border by 00Z Monday and then continuing into Central
Wisconsin by 12Z Monday. Sharp closed upper low will be close in
tow...centered just to the west of the surface low by early Monday
morning. As usual...dry easterly low level flow ahead of this system
will tend to initially erode incoming low level moisture/precip
across our CWA. So after a partly to mostly sunny Easter Sunday...
clouds will begin to increase from SW to NE across our CWA this
evening. Chances of showers will also increase from SW to NE...but
likely not until later in the evening and overnight as deeper
moisture arrives. Our far SW CWA around MBL may experience a few
rumbles of thunder thanks to the development of very limited and
elevated instability.

High temps this afternoon will range from the Upper 40s in Eastern
Upper and far NE Lower Michigan along the Lake Huron shoreline to
the upper 50s in our SW CWA around MBL and TVC. Low temps tonight
will cool into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

Low pressure will be on the move across Wisconsin by daybreak on
Monday, cruising northeastward into central upper Michigan and north
into Ontario by day`s end. Ordinarily this track for low pressure
would bring some attention to severe weather, but considering the
associated cold frontal boundary will clear much of the area by
midday Monday, not anticipating too much in the way of widespread
thunder, let alone severe storms. Best shot for thunder likely
favors south of M-72, with specific focus on the Saginaw Bay area,
as the frontal passage may be just late enough to allow for some
better instability to materialize for folks down there. As far as
rainfall amounts go, probably an additional 0.25-0.50" across the
eastern Yoop and far northern lower, with lesser amounts (0.25" or
less, locally higher in any downpours / storms) south. Highs top out
in the 40s north of the Bridge, and well into the 50s most
elsewhere... with the exception of the Saginaw Bay area, which could
balloon into the mid, perhaps even upper 60s with that later frontal
passage. Post frontal airmass builds Monday night, with lows in the
low-to-mid 30s (upper 30s by Lake Huron). Dry Tuesday and cooler...
highs in the 40s north and near 50 to the mid 50s south (near 60 in
Gladwin / Arenac).

As stated by the previous forecaster, a textbook zonal flow regime
materializes the remainder of the week, bringing a series of
disturbances, that should draw progressively warmer air into the
region through the week. These disturbances will be pretty quick
moving, and instability starved, so generally, anticipating much of
the activity comes in the form of some rain showers, perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder the farther south one goes of the Bridge. The
best chances for rain will be Tuesday night and Thursday night into
Friday. Wednesday through the day Thursday appear dry... and will
likely be the warmest days of the year (thus far... it is April
after all) for a lot of places. With any breaks in the clouds, could
easily see widespread upper 60s to mid 70s materializing south of
the bridge (mid 50s to 60 in the eastern Yoop). Slightly cooler (but
seasonable!) to close out the period... with highs holding in the
mid 50s to mid 60s across the board.

Normal highs: 52-62, normal lows: 31-40

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

High pressure overhead will maintain dry wx and VFR conditions
thru today. Clouds will increase this evening...with widespread
rain showers developing later this evening into overnight ahead
of deep low pressure lifting thru Missouri and into Wisconsin.
Conditions will drop to MVFR as this precip develops. LLWS will
develop overnight around TVC and MBL. Surface winds will remain
from the east at around 10 kts today and this evening...strengthening
to 15 to 25 kts late tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MLR