165
FXUS64 KAMA 172332
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
632 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

- Daily scattered thunderstorms will continue to provide a threat
  for localized heavy rainfall through early Wednesday for the
  Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

- Temperatures will continue the slow cool down throughout the
  week with highs remaining around average each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Today will be the first of several days with convectively active
weather as a monsoon moisture plume axis as seen in H7 Theta-e field
remains directly over the region. A mid level high center will
quickly transitions from SRN MO to NW NM / SW CO through Monday
with various weak vort maxes moving around it and across the area.
NBM and some hi resolution CAMs (convective allowing models) have
been struggling to show high enough POPs / activity. WRT the CAMS,
this might be because they are not resolving smaller updrafts, but
regardless, anticipate TSTMs more into the scattered ranges this
afternoon and evening and again on Monday afternoon and evening and
late night pop up storms will also remain possible as well. With
weak shear and warm mid level temperatures (-5 to -6 deg C at H5),
lighting and heavy rain will be the main threats from these
disorganized storms, but we can`t rule out a very isolated severe
downburst as well mainly in the afternoon and early evening given
highs in the 90s. PWs show atmospheric moisture at or above the 90th
percentile for August which is already the climatological highest
month of the year in the Panhandles. Lack of wind shear and a weak
low level jet should help limit the ceiling on rainfall amounts, but
isolated rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches in an hour are possible and
HREF shows a 10-30% neighborhood probability of 1 hour rainfall
amounts of 1 inch per hour or more focused on a corridor from
Dimmitt to Amarillo and just east of Guymon. The probability of 2
inches or more in an hour is less than 5%, but HREF and RRFS do show
1-2 pockets where the 95th percentile storm total rainfall is 2-3
inches today. Again this is a reasonable worse case scenario and
would be very localized. Given all this most of the area is included
in a marginal threat for flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Tuesday will be similar to Monday as the moisture axis remains over
the area and another day of disorganized scattered storms is
expected. Stronger storms will start moving generally southward
given mid-upr level winds around evolving mid level high center
west of the area. We will have to watch for potential for a storm
complex from the north or northeast Tuesday night. This would be
associated with a more robust disturbance working south around a,
what will have become, strong mid level high center positioned
over the Four Corners. This feature will eventually usher a weak
back-door cold front and drier air into the area resulting in
slightly cooler temperatures and an end to rain chances by
Thursday if not Wednesday. In fact highs are even forecast
slightly below normal with mostly 80s over the weekend. Rain
chances will only remain out of the forecast a couple days before
returning at least in the western zones over the weekend as the
monsoon moist axis quickly returns and the high center retrogrades
further SW leaving a potentially very interesting NW flow set-up
Sunday into Monday depending on exactly where the high sets up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Thunderstorms will remain possible for a few more hours at the
terminals, with KDHT and KGUY having the higher chances so PROB30s
have been maintained at those sites. Storm chances will quickly
decrease by 05-06z. Additional storms are possible late in this
TAF cycle with KAMA having the higher potential. VFR conditions
are likely outside of any potential thunderstorms with winds out
of the south with gusts up to 20-25 kts.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION...05