022
FXUS64 KAMA 281731
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1231 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Less coverage of storms today and tonight but increasing potential
on Sunday and Monday with wind gusts and heavy rain being the main
hazards.

Increasing heat toward the holiday weekend with temperatures
returning to the lower 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

We remain in a more tropical, stagnant pattern across the Panhandles
and this should continue through much of the forecast period. While
we should see continued shower and thunderstorm activity this
afternoon and evening, it does appear there is somewhat of a lull
compared to previous days and upcoming days. Moisture continues to
stream into the region as dewpoints are feeling a bit more Gulf-like
than our usual dry Panhandle conditions. Precipitable water content
will range today from about an inch in the west to 1.3 inches in the
east. Broad ridging remains over the region, with no discernible
shortwave activity set to move through the Panhandles today. Hi-res
models are not overly excited about convection today, with some
showing a few storms moving east from the higher terrain of New
Mexico. Overall coverage should be lower than we had been seeing.
The main concern with storms today should still be locally heavy
rainfall and any localized flooding concerns as a result of this.
Given the ample moisture content storms will continue to be
efficient rain producers. A few stronger storms may develop but
overall severe weather is not expected given weak shear environment
once again(roughly 15-20kts) deep layer shear. Wind gusts would be
the main concern should any  storm get feisty given DCAPE values
around 1200-1600 J/kg.

The main concern will come on Sunday as convection should increase
across the region during the afternoon and into the evening hours.
This comes in response to a trailing front in relation to an upper
level trough to our east. Convection is expected to increase over
the region through the afternoon into the evening hours. Sufficient
instability of around 1500-1800 J/kg and deep layer shear of around
25kts, increasing to 30kts during the later afternoon into the
evening supports more organized convection. DCAPE values also are
higher on Sunday with values around 1600-2000 J/KG suggesting a wind
threat, with some lower end hail threat. Given continued higher
moisture content, also would expect continued flooding concerns and
we are even outlooked in a marginal ERO by WPC for tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The best chances for rain continue Monday into Monday with the
lingering effects of the lingering surface boundary, outflow
boundaries and continued higher moisture content as characterized by
PW values around 1.1-1.6 inches. Heavy rainfall and marginally
stronger storms will continue to be the concern on Monday,
particularly across central and southern Texas Panhandle. Through
the week, the upper trough continues to push to our east and upper
ridging really builds back in, at first later Monday but more
significantly during the week. While this won`t completely eliminate
potential for rain and storms, the increased heights may limit the
coverage of storms we have during the afternoon and evening hours.
This should, however, increase our chances for bringing some heat
back to the region just in time for the Independence Day
celebrations, with highs reaching back into the lower to mid 90s.
NBM probabilities for seeing highs greater than 95 on July 4th are
highest in the southeast, but generally range around 20-30% across
the region. This increases to 40-50% for much of the area on the
5th, with the northwest and west being the exception.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF cycle. There is a
low confidence potential for storms to impact KDHT this evening
but have left them out of the forecast at this time. Winds will
remain out of the south to south-southwest through the period,
with sustained speeds this afternoon around 15-23kts and gusts up
to 25kts at all sites. Gusts should diminish overnight and return
tomorrow. Better potential for storms tomorrow afternoon and
evening but will evaluate that in later forecast cycles.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...28