694
FXUS64 KAMA 151714
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1114 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1148 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Elevated to critical Fire Weather Monday through Thursday, with
  Tuesday and Wednesday looking to be the worst Fire Weather days.

- High winds possible on Tuesday but cloud cover could limit the
  extent of the wind gusts, still medium to high confidence in at
  least 50 mph wind gusts for the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Some lingering back side moisture of the departing weather system
may pose for some patchy fog across portions of the eastern
Panhandles tonight.  Will monitor the situation to see if it
requires more than just a mention in the forecast.  As high pressure
builds across the area into tomorrow, we`ll see mild temperatures in
the upper 60s to lower 70s return.  A lee surface low is expected in
southeast CO and that will lead to a tightening surface gradient in
the northwest Panhandles and winds 15-25 mph.

Winds may stay up overnight in the 10-15 mph range keeping the
temperatures in the 40s, and RH recovery fair (~50-70%), but Monday
will be our warmest day as we`ll see highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s.  Since the main jet will not yet be overhead on Monday, the
surface low will not be as strong, and winds only look to be in the
15-20 mph range, with gusts possibly getting up to 30 mph.  This
will make Monday a solid elevated to potentially low end critical
day with RH values that could fall into the single digits, it`s just
the question as to if we`ll see winds strong enough for critical
Fire Weather.  Monday night we`ll continue those winds 10-15
overnight in most areas, keeping the overnight lows on the warm
side, in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1148 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Tuesday continues to be the primary concern as a well stacked jet
will align over the Panhandles Tuesday afternoon and the surface low
will tighten even further allowing or sustained winds out of the
southwest 25-35 mph, with gusts expected to reach at least 50 mph in
the western Panhandles.  Tuesday has the potential for all
Panhandles to see wind gusts in excess of 50 mph, but there are
still some things that work against these stronger winds.  Cloud
cover is a concern.  Some of the models want to hold thicker cloud
cover, that would limit heating and maximum mixing potential.
Pacific front arrival may be as early as noon in the west, and that
would usher in cooler air.  So overall, winds are expected to be
strong, they may even be high, but there is still some questions as
to if we under perform on the wind gusts due to the clouds. Wednesday
night winds will come down and skies should clear, and with the
cooler Pacific front the lows will come down to the 30s to lower
40s, improving the RH recovery, but still would be borderline fair
to poor, as the dewpoints were crashing down behind the front.

Wednesday the overall stacked jet will remain aloft as broad scale
southwest flow continues due to another system deepening over the
west coast.  The main moisture that provided the high clouds on
Tuesday would be replaced with much drier air on Wednesday.  We
still have a jet aloft, but the strongest jet streak isn`t as
prevalent on Wednesday, leading to a weaker surface low, but still
strong enough to support potential winds in the 20-30 mph range with
gusts that may reach 30-40 mph.  This will still be enough to keep
the Fire Weather concerns going on Wednesday.  Temperatures will be
in the 70s and RH values could fall below 10 percent.  Winds may not
be as strong, but after multiple dry and breezy days, the concern
for Fire Weather would still remain.

Thursday will be a bit of a challenge, as there`s a shortwave
expected to move across the Panhandles, with a pretty strong 700mb
jet streak, but that is not aligned with peak heating and we may be
on the back side of that system, with slightly cooler air in the 60s
and lighter northwest winds on the back side of the shortwave.
Still, dry conditions and winds 5-15 mph will continue to add to at
least the potential for elevated Fire Weather to persist. There may
be a very brief window late in the afternoon on Thursday that we
heat up enough to mix some gusts over 40 mph as the low level jet
starts to strengthen, but that`s a low confidence.

Friday and Saturday will be a challenge as we are riding the line
between that warm and breezy air, and a possible backdoor cold
front, that may bring an increased chance at precipitation.  But
cooler temperatures look to be favored for those days with highs in
the 50s, to maybe lower 60s in the far southeast.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will generally be out of the south and southwest
at 5-15 kts with brief higher gusts at times. Skies will remain
mostly clear.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1148 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Fire Weather will be the concern for the majority of this upcoming
week.  It will start off with very dry and breezy conditions on
Monday with very warm temperatures in most areas approaching 80.  We
very well may be near critical on Monday, if the winds over perform
then we could be looking at RFTI`s in the 4-6 range, but right now
just 2-3 with the lower winds.

Tuesday, we have a well stacked jet, RH values in the teens and wind
gusts likely 40+ mph, and in some areas 50-60mph will be possible.
Cloud cover could help limit those wind gusts, but any fire that is
active on Monday and not controlled, will be a problem Tuesday.  Any
new starts on Tuesday will be an issue given the stronger winds.

Wednesday we`ll be looking at much drier air, but winds should be a
little more relaxed, yet still have the potential to gust in the 35-
45 mph range.  Sustained winds 20-30mph with the RH values below 10
percent could technically support RFTI`s a bit worse than Tuesday,
but the overall concern still would be that Tuesday is going to be
the worse day, given the higher winds.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for TXZ001>020-317.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     TXZ001>014-016>018-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for OKZ001>003.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...29