176
FXUS64 KAMA 051848
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
148 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Severe thunderstorms are expected today as our environment becomes
increasingly favorable for all hazards to transpire across the
Panhandles.

At the time of this writing, a boundary is set up across central
portions of the Texas Panhandle and is slowly progressing northward.
Temperatures and dewpoints are slowly rising south of the boundary,
but low level cloud coverage is preventing temperatures in this area
to elevate much above 70 degrees. The mostly like cause for this
boundary formation is a surge of high Theta-E values advecting
into the southern and central Texas Panhandle. CAMs suggest that
this trend will continue and expand further northeast in our CWA,
allowing for greater coverage of +345 K Theta-E values.
Temperatures today are eventually forecast to rise to the mid to
upper 70`s, but it may not be until the late afternoon before this
manifests. Convective temperatures based of of short term model
soundings range around the mid 70`s for surface based convection.
Cloud coverage is also expected to clear out later today, but
skies may remain partly cloudy across much of the combined
Panhandles. Despite this, additional storms are still expected to
break the cap later this afternoon and evening, with bi-modal
convection expected in both the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle.

Severe thunderstorm are ongoing across the central Texas Panhandle;
however, this discussion will focus on the convection expected later
this afternoon through the overnight period. The latest CAMs propose
that we will see our next round of storms initiate around 3 PM off
of a shortwave coming out of New Mexico. Given the potential for
lingering stable air, isolated storms are more likely to occur near
the onset of the event. The initial storm mode will be discrete
supercellular storms capable of producing very large hail (+2.00
inches), damaging winds, and a marginal threat for a tornado. The
best tornado chances for our area should align better later this
evening with influence from the low level jet. Although, a modest
low level wind shear environment exist already today since 0-1 km
SRH ranges between 100-150 m^2/s^2, and forecasted hodographs are
already curved at the lower levels and should remain that way
through the evening. Storm motion from these initial storms should
be due west-to-east based off of current 0-6 km bulk shear
vectors. Later tonight, another front moving in from SE Colorado
and southern Kansas and should move through the Oklahoma Panhandle
as the front progresses further south. The storm mode is expected
to be multicellular, but a few semi-discrete supercells may
possibly form alongside the front. The primary hazard should be
damaging winds; but given the chance for supercells, large hail
and a tornado or two may occur. LCL heights today are already
abnormally low for this time of year, with heights expected to
stay around 400-500 m. Forecasted max PWAT values could range from
1.2 in the western Panhandles and 1.5 in the eastern Panhandles.
Flash flooding will be a high concern with any slow moving
supercell or training storms. This activity may eventually line
out tonight and continue to pose a severe wind threat upon it`s
formation, but it will soon become sub- severe as storms become
elevated and move southward into an overworked environment.

Rangel

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

- Thunderstorms are favored through at least Sunday across the
  Panhandles. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
  almost every day across portions of the Panhandles.

- Flooding and flash flooding will be possible almost every day
  due to the antecedent wet soil and overall moist environment
  which leads to heavy rain with any thunderstorm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Clouds should begin to break up this afternoon across the southern
or central Texas Panhandle, but there is some question as to how
much daytime heating will be able to occur across most of the Texas
Panhandle before it begins to wane toward the late afternoon hours.
This certainly casts doubt on the ability for discrete convection to
develop this afternoon, but if it were to happen, the northern Texas
Panhandle looks to be the more favored area due to better heating
thus far, but can`t entirely rule anything out from developing
elsewhere. Meanwhile, clouds in northeast New Mexico are beginning
to wane which suggests convection may be able to develop there and
move into the western Texas Panhandle later this afternoon when more
favorable forcing arrives. Given favorable instability and very
favorable wind shear (40-60 knots effective shear), supercells are
likely with this activity and capable of producing hail greater than
2 inches in diameter and winds up to 70 mph. The maximum hail size
with the supercells will depend on how much clearing and heating can
occur, but with the expected wind shear values, instability will
certainly be the potential limiting factor. Thunderstorms which are
currently developing in SE Colorado will continue to develop through
this afternoon and eventually make its way into the Oklahoma
Panhandle this evening in the form of an MCS. Damaging wind up to 75
mph will be possible as well as large hail and perhaps a tornado.
Very large hail will dependent upon any embedded supercell structure
that can develop. Additionally, the line is favored to become
oriented in a roughly west-to-east fashion while moving roughly west-
northwest to east-southeast which will favor prolonged very heavy
rain which could lead to flash flooding across the northeastern TX
Panhandle.

Once again tomorrow it will be important to monitor the progression
and eventual regression of the outflow boundary from the overnight
MCS. The latest 12km/3km NAM push the outflow boundary through the
CWA and struggle to bring it north back into the Panhandles. Thus,
afternoon development in the Panhandles when another embedded
disturbance pushes through is uncertain at this time. Of greater
confidence is the development of a few cells in northeastern New
Mexico/southeastern Colorado and would move into the northwestern
combined Panhandles and move through at least a portion of the
Panhandles. Any of this activity would be capable of producing all
hazards, but large to very large hail and damaging winds would be
the primary hazards.


Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

A convective system may be ongoing at the beginning of this long-
term period in the eastern Panhandles with an associated outflow
boundary pushing through a portion of the area. Otherwise,
impressive quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue across the Southern
Plains. However, the potential for moisture to return following the
morning convective system is very much in question. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible if enough moisture and instability
can be realized, but this will be heavily dependent upon mesoscale
features.

Going into Sunday and through the remainder of the long-term period,
a seasonably impressive upper-level trough will dip into the Upper
Midwest and move into the Great Lakes region resulting in
northwesterly flow aloft for the Panhandles. This sort of pattern
favors convection developing in southeastern Colorado that moves
through the Panhandles. Will have to keep an eye on moisture quality
from day-to-day as well as the ability to recover from any overnight
convection. But the streak of active weather looks to continue into
well into the long-term period.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

IFR to MVFR ceilings are still being observed at all terminals,
but clouds should lift and begin to dissipate this afternoon.
Thunderstorms will be possible at all terminals with varying
timing, and may produce hail and strong downdraft winds. The
timing for thunderstorms will have to be fine tuned as we get
closer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  82  62  86 /  70  20  60   0
Beaver OK                  59  77  59  84 /  90  10  80  10
Boise City OK              54  76  55  83 /  70  10  60   0
Borger TX                  62  84  62  88 /  70  10  70  10
Boys Ranch TX              59  83  61  87 /  60  10  60   0
Canyon TX                  60  83  60  87 /  60  20  60   0
Clarendon TX               62  84  63  86 /  70  30  60  10
Dalhart TX                 56  80  56  83 /  70  10  50   0
Guymon OK                  56  76  57  84 /  90   0  70  10
Hereford TX                60  84  60  88 /  50  30  50   0
Lipscomb TX                61  80  61  84 /  80  20  80  10
Pampa TX                   61  80  61  84 /  70  20  70  10
Shamrock TX                63  84  63  87 /  70  20  60  10
Wellington TX              64  87  65  90 /  70  20  60  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52