413
FXUS64 KAMA 231118
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
618 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Infrared satellite imagery this morning depicts mid level clouds
streaming in across much of the CWA. This cloud cover has come in
thicker than previously forecast and is aiding in keeping lows a
bit warmer than yesterday morning. Even with that being said, some
locations were briefly able to drop down into the upper 50s
before cloud cover moved in. The forecast for today remains
largely on track with warm temperatures and light winds.

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

- Lower temperatures and high rain chances are still in play through
  all of next week.

- Risk for flooding is becoming more northern focused. Highest
  QPF values continue to be places across the Oklahoma Panhandle
  and the northern Texas Panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Today, mostly isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
move off the high terrain and into the northern zones of our CWA.
PoPs are still not high for the day 1 period due to the low coverage
of storms expected and our lower confidence in their
sustainability. High temperatures on Saturday will still range in
the 80`s and lower 90`s.

Sunday, Better PoP coverage and percentages are expected across the
area due to the shifting heights in our upper level pattern. The
best chances for showers and storms tomorrow will be during the
evening and overnight hours. Only a slight decrease in high
temperatures is expected on Sunday, with mostly places expected to
be close to their seasonal averages.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

We are seeing a bit of a downtrend in the extended period for QPF
values across the area. Flooding concerns are still present,
especially for the Oklahoma Panhandle. However, widespread
abundant rainfall is less favored for areas further south. PoPs in
the long term period remain high and unchanged, but the rain rates
from the forecast stratiform precipitation will likely not be
enough for areawide flooding. Temperatures continue to trend lower
for Monday through Wednesday. Tuesday still appears to be the
coolest day of the week, with an increasing amount of places
potentially staying below 70 degrees for highs. The below average
temperature trend continues into next weekend thanks to an
additional cold front at the end of week.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. Showers or
isolated thunderstorms are possible during this TAF period, but
confidence in impacts at the sites is not high enough to mention
at this time. Winds will be light and will eventually switch to
out of the east at the sites with sustained winds around 10 kts or
less. Mid level clouds will continue to stream in across the
region.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...05