166
FXUS64 KAMA 061121
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

- Off and on chances for rain and thunderstorms will continue this
  morning through Wednesday with the highest chances Monday night.

- Much cooler, below average, temperatures are expected for most
  areas this afternoon, but will become more widespread on Tuesday
  and Wednesday.

- Warm and dry conditions are likely to return late this week and
  into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Isolated showers or storms may still be ongoing across the area
after sunrise this morning with rain chances around 10-20 percent.
At the surface, a cold front (which is slowly moving south across
the northwestern Panhandles at the time of this writing) should be
through at least half if not more of the CWA by sunrise. The front
may stall at some point during the day, but most areas will start to
feel the effects of the front today, especially for areas further
north. Cloud cover combined with the cooler air mass behind the
front will keep temperatures will below average for at least two
thirds of the area today, with highs staying in the lower 60s to
perhaps even the upper 50s. Model guidance varies tremendously
with the extent of the cloud cover behind the front as well as the
highs for today. However, blended guidance (such as the NBM)
really struggle with these drastic post frontal temperature
changes so have leaned heavily on cooler model guidance for highs
for today. Outside of isolated showers or storms during the day,
the better chances will hold off until the evening into Tuesday
morning when a weak disturbance traverses over the region. Severe
storms are quite unlikely as we will be behind the cold front but
cannot rule out some lightning with the activity.

Isolated to scattered rain showers or storms may still be ongoing to
start the day on Tuesday with the highest chances across the
northern half of the CWA. Hi-res guidance currently suggests there
may be a bit of a break in rain chances going into Tuesday afternoon
before they increase once again on Tuesday night. Rainfall totals
will likely be quite modest, with only a 10-20 percent chance for
any location to exceed a half inch during this short term forecast
period. Widespread, cooler temperatures are going to occur on
Tuesday as cooler H850 temperatures drop into the lower double
digits to potentially even the single digits Celsius. Similar to
today, have leaned heavily on cooler guidance for Tuesday, which
resulted in highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 70s. As
mentioned previously, rain chances should increase going into
Tuesday night as another weak shortwave embedded in the upper
level flow moves over the area and potentially kicks off scattered
rain showers or storms.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

High pressure will begin to strengthen across south Texas on
Wednesday and a ridge is expected to build in over the Plains late
this week and into next weekend. Before the ridging pattern sets up,
zonal flow is expected on Wednesday which will keep temperatures
cooler for one more day with highs in the 70s. Subtle disturbances
may lead to scattered showers or storms on Wednesday, with chances
only around 10-20 percent. With the ridge building in over the
region, temperatures will steadily climb back up into the 80s
Thursday through the remainder of this long term forecast period.
Cannot rule out some location reaching the 90 degree mark next
weekend, especially on Sunday when current model guidance has WAA
maximized over the CWA. Thursday through next weekend looks to
remain on the dry side given high pressure in place across the
Panhandles.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

MVFR conditions are currently present at KGUY and are expected to
continue through the morning and portion of the afternoon.
Thunderstorms will be possible at KAMA through the next 2 hours,
and again later this afternoon and into the evening. Have included
PROB30s for both at this time, but adjustments to prevailing
thunderstorms will certainly be possible. Otherwise, MVFR to IFR
ceilings are expected at all terminals tonight.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...52