417
FXUS64 KAMA 050947
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
347 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

-Dense freezing fog this morning across the east and northeast.

-Critical fire weather conditions across the west and parts of the
 south-central

-New system may bring some wintry precipitation to the Panhandles
 next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

A cold air mass will slowly erode from southwest to northeast today.
Low clouds and fog will also slowly dissipate from southwest to
northeast as well.  Some of the fog will be locally dense this
morning especially in the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and the
northeast Texas Panhandle.  A light glaze of ice will be possible on
elevated surfaces in the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and the
northeast Texas Panhandle where we may see some freezing drizzle,
but travel is not expected to be impacted at this time.  Downslope
west and southwest winds are expected to be strongest in the western
Panhandles where a Red Flag Warning has been issued.  We are also
going to expand the warning to include Moore, Potter, and Randall
counties and Palo Duro Canyon for the possibility of stronger winds
making it into these areas for much of the afternoon.

The cold air mass comes back down across the Panhandles tonight into
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

The cold air mass then gets shoved to the northeast out of our area
for good on Friday.  Another cold front then moves south across the
Panhandles on Saturday and this cold air mass stays with us through
early next week.  Highs Sunday through Tuesday are expected to
remain in the 30`s and 40`s.  There will be a low chance of light
snow across much of the area Monday and Tuesday as an upper level
trough approaches the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Low clouds and fog will develop across the Panhandles over the
next few hours and will impact KAMA/KGUY. IFR to LIFR
ceilings/visibility are likely at both sites. Clouds and fog will
clear out after sunrise at both locations. Strong winds upwards
of 50 kts will develop at 1.5k ft agl tonight which will cause
LLWS at KAMA/KDHT. Surface winds will increase out of the west
around 18z with gusts upwards of 30 kts at all sites. Winds should
decrease towards the end of this TAF cycle to around 10-15 kts.

Muscha

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Critical fire weather is expected across the western Oklahoma
Panhandle and the western and parts of the south central Texas
Panhandle where the strongest winds will coincide with the lowest
relative humidity values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                78  41  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  74  33  56  25 /  20   0   0   0
Boise City OK              76  33  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  80  39  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              79  35  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  78  40  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               75  44  68  33 /  20   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 75  33  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  77  32  57  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                79  40  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                74  38  56  29 /  20   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   79  41  62  35 /  20   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                66  41  64  32 /  20   0   0   0
Wellington TX              59  40  66  32 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
     evening for TXZ001-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

     Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ003>005-
     008>010-014-015.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
     evening for OKZ001.

     Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...05