589
FXUS64 KAMA 192348
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
648 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

- Rain, some of it heavy, especially across the northeast
  overnight into Sunday morning.

- Some light snow possible across the west tonight. Little to no
  accumulations expected.

- Thunderstorms, some severe, on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Upper level low was moving east into west-central New Mexico this
afternoon.  As this low moves east, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the east of the mountains and this activity
should rotate northeast across the Panhandles overnight.  The models
do not agree on the track of the upper low.  Some want to take it
across the far southern Texas Panhandle and others want to take it
more along the Canadian River.  Some snow may develop under the cold
core of the upper level low, mainly across the western Panhandles.
The track of the low will make all of the difference on whether the
snow falls across the southwest Texas Panhandle or the northwest
Texas Panhandle and the western Oklahoma Panhandle.  At this point,
it looks like any snowfall accumulations will be less than one inch.

The precipitation will come to an end from southwest to northeast
during the day on Sunday.  Skies will then become mostly sunny
during the afternoon.  Clear skies and light winds Sunday night will
allow temperatures to fall back into the 30`s across the Oklahoma
Panhandle and much of the northern and western Texas Panhandle.

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Monday looks to be a quiet day as a trough moves through the Ohio
Valley and an associated surface high moves off to the east of the
Panhandles. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to approach the
Panhandles in the afternoon hours resulting in the development of a
surface low in northeastern New Mexico resulting in the development
of 10-20 mph southwesterly winds. This system will move off to the
northeast Monday night as a broader surface low develops in New
Mexico, causing surface winds to back to southerly which will help
draw in low-level moisture from the Gulf Monday night and through
Tuesday. Models disagree about how much low-level moisture will be
present by Tuesday afternoon, but forecast soundings show at least
portions of the Panhandles could develop 1000-2000+ J/kg of uncapped
or very weakly capped MLCAPE such that any perburation in the flow
aloft could kick off thunderstorms. Although the winds aloft looks
modest, 25-35 kts of effective shear would not be out of the
question which would be enough for a threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms. Low-level wind shear looks unimpressive at this
point, leading to the primary threats being large hail and damaging
winds. The overall weather pattern doesn`t look to change much on
Wednesday, either, and should thunderstorms develop they could
become strong to severe again.

A trough within the subtropical jet stream will move eastward toward
southwestern Texas Wednesday night and into Thursday, with west-
central Texas or the Texas Panhandle being in the left exit region
of the upper-level jet streak. Operational and ensemble members hint
at a cold front moving south through the Plains Thursday or Thursday
night, but there are different solutions regarding the strength and
speed of this cold front. This could impact the potential for
thunderstorms (and the potential for strong to severe storms) again
on Thursday.

The NBM blankets 15-30%+ PoPs from Tuesday through Thursday night
across most of the Panhandles. This feels overdone, particularly
during the nighttime hours since this convection should weaken in
the evening hours. Will leave the NBM PoPs for now, but this
forecaster does not think much of showers/thunderstorms continuing
through the night in this weather pattern.

Uncertainty increases significantly beyond Thursday as details in
the surface and upper-level pattern diverge.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

MVFR conditions continue at AMA while they have just started at
DHT. Later this evening, around 02Z, ceilings at GUY should also
drop to MVFR. Showers should enter the region late tonight and may
impact all TAF sites. The highest confidence at this point is for
AMA, as the system seems to favor the central Texas Panhandle.
Showers may start off as scattered, but should gradually become
widespread in the early morning hours on Sunday. Conditions should
become IFR during the rainfall.

As for the other sites, PROB30 groups have been implemented since
there is still uncertainty that these terminals will receive
impactful precipitation. If they do, there is also a chance rain
may covert to snowfall. However, no snow accumulation is expected.

The system will exit the Panhandles tomorrow morning and skies
will rapidly clear up by the afternoon. Some breezy, northerly
winds are possible from the afternoon till the end of the 00Z TAF
period.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                35  64  40  79 /  90  60   0   0
Beaver OK                  38  64  37  81 /  80  90   0   0
Boise City OK              32  66  35  78 /  60  30   0   0
Borger TX                  38  69  42  82 /  90  80   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              36  67  38  80 /  90  50   0   0
Canyon TX                  35  65  38  78 /  80  40   0   0
Clarendon TX               40  66  43  79 /  90  50   0   0
Dalhart TX                 32  67  33  78 /  80  30   0   0
Guymon OK                  35  66  35  80 /  80  60   0   0
Hereford TX                33  67  36  79 /  90  30   0   0
Lipscomb TX                39  64  41  79 /  90  90   0   0
Pampa TX                   38  65  42  79 / 100  80   0   0
Shamrock TX                41  65  42  79 /  90  70   0   0
Wellington TX              42  66  43  78 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...55