866
FXUS64 KAMA 011026
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
526 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Very low (20 percent or less) precipitation chances will linger
  for mainly the northwest combined Panhandles through midweek,
  but otherwise dry conditions will prevail for most locations.

- Persistent high pressure will remain over the area, leading to
  continued above average temperatures. Afternoon highs will
  reach 105 degrees in some locations this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Thankfully, in the midst of sweltering September heat, we still have
very low (but mentionable) precipitation chances. Unfortunately,
only a very select few for a very small portion of the Panhandles
have this potential. High pressure aloft is settling over the SE
CONUS, which will help regional temperatures lower by another degree
or two today (still mid 90s and triple digits). Breezy south-
southwest winds of 10-20 mph will be in place both today and
tomorrow, which could lead to elevated fire weather conditions. As
in previous days, any appreciable moisture will only be present
across the far west-northwest Panhandles this afternoon-evening,
with 10-20% chances for stray weak showers/storms on the periphery
of upper level high pressure.

Slim rain chances return again on Wednesday, and may be shifted
slightly further east along a sfc trough/stalled boundary over the
central and southwest Panhandles according to some of the latest
CAM runs. If moisture pooled along this feature is sufficient, a
very weak perturbation could also help get this hypothetical
convection going. Even then, activity would be very spotty and
rather weak (10- 15% POPs). High temperatures will increase again
Wednesday, up by a few degrees across the board.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Our seemingly endless stretch of abnormal heat furthermore has no
end in sight, as model trends continue to show upper level ridging
dominating the synoptic pattern. Both deterministic and ensemble
datasets depict high pressure being nudged eastward over the
southeast CONUS through the week, and then morphing back on top of
the Plains this weekend as persistent troughing settles atop the
Pacific northwest. Moisture transport to the Panhandles will be
scarce, while high temperatures steadily remain in the 90 to 105
range each day. If there are any better rain chances, models suggest
Thursday could see slightly improved potential as the jet stream
sags closer to the Panhandles. However, this still only supports
meager 10-20% POPs to mainly far northwestern portions of the
forecast area.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Mainly VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles
for the next 24 hours. The winds will be breezy and southerly this
afternoon at all terminals. There is a low to medium chance for
rain showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern panhandles this
afternoon and evening. KDHT has the highest chances of being
impacted by thunderstorms thus it is reflected in the TAF. KGUY
has a lesser chance with the rain showers and thunderstorms not
reflected within the TAF. Gusty outflow winds and brief heavy
rainfall are the main threat from the thunderstorms.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...98