121
FXUS64 KAMA 171020
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
520 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

- There is a very slight chance for a severe thunderstorm in the
  northeastern combined Panhandles this afternoon.

- Breezy to windy conditions will be possible on Sunday and
  Monday. This may cause elevated fire weather for the northwest
  Panhandles.

- Highly conditional storm chances in the far eastern Panhandles
  on Sunday. Potential for storms to become severe if they do
  form.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Warmer temperatures today as southwest flow will dominate over the
Panhandles.  A weak frontal system will clip the northern Panhandles
late this morning into early afternoon.  It shouldn`t be noticed
much at all as far as temperatures as the boundary is just running
right along the KS/OK border.  But as you move further into KS the
temperatures will transition from mid 80s in OK to mid 70s in
southern KS.  It`s likely right along this frontal boundary and the
approaching shortwave embedded in the southwest flow, will be the
area to watch as far as showers or thunderstorms today.  Overall,
there`s about a 15 to 25 percent chance that we see a storm pop up.
And that could be anywhere from Dalhart to Canadian northward.  Will
note that the best lift to get something going will be when the
shortwave catches up to this front, which will likely occur in the
KS/OK area, and as that result the highest pops are right along that
Beaver County area.  All in all, maybe we get an isolated shower or
storm in the northern Panhandles today, but it`s still very low
confidence (~10%).

The upper disturbance providing the west to southwest flow will dive
down over the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon.  Enhanced southwest
flow and very warm temperatures are expected on Sunday.
Additionally, the RFTI`s will start breaking 5 and we might have
some elevated Fire Concerns.  That being said, the ground moisture
is still very good and it could still take awhile for fuels to get
stressed as they continue to benefit from the deeper soil moisture.
Overall, this setup on Sunday looks to keep the dryline right at the
border or even east of the border, and maybe an isolated severe
storm or two could pop up on along that dryline.  But again, it will
probably be in OK before that happens.  If this changes and the
dryline sets up further west, then we can expect some severe weather
to be possible on Sunday.  Sunday will be the warmest day with
widespread upper 80s to lower 90s, and some breezy winds in the
northwest Panhandles leading to those higher RFTI`s.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

For the synoptic pattern during the long term period, we are still
tracking a strong upper level trough over central portions of the
CONUS. A reinforcement wave will move in from the Pacific
Northwest and bring a second trough south into the High Plains
between Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will accompany this
motion and will move through the whole CWA by Tuesday morning. As
the large scale trough progresses further east, upper level
ridging will return over the area and linger through the rest of
the extended.

Monday, the latest 00Z model trends for the track of the upper
low place the center further north of our region. As a result,
the wrap around moisture is forecast to position further north as
well, and POPs have decreased again on Monday. If any shower or
thunderstorm were to occur on Monday, it would be in the evening
for the Oklahoma Panhandle.

As the cold front moves through our CWA on Tuesday, northerly
surface winds will flowing alongside it and remain in place
through much of the day. High temperatures on Tuesday should
decrease to the 70`s and lower 80`s range.

For the rest of the week, as high pressure resumes over the area,
southerly and southwesterly winds will return to the combined
Panhandles. High temperatures will slowly rise back up into the
80`s and then 90`s by Friday and the weekend. No further POPs are
anticipated through the rest of the forecast period.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds out of the south at KAMA in the 5-10kt range
increasing to 10-15kts around 22z. Light and variable winds at
KDHT through about 19z with more southerly winds in the 10-15kt
range with gusts up to 25kts. And lastly KGUY will be
northeasterly, coming around to the southeast by 21z. Overall
winds 8-12kts at KGUY

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                88  55  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  85  53  92  54 /  20  20   0   0
Boise City OK              82  46  83  47 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  90  56  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              88  52  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  88  53  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               88  57  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 84  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  85  49  88  49 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                88  51  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                87  56  92  57 /  20  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   88  57  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                88  57  92  56 /  10  10  10   0
Wellington TX              90  59  92  57 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...89