009
FXUS64 KAMA 181912
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
212 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

- Thunderstorms will be possible in the far southeast Texas
  Panhandle this afternoon-evening. A storm or two could become
  severe.

- Freezing temperatures in the northwest tonight and possibly
  again tomorrow night.

- Rain chances return area wide Saturday night into Sunday. Low
  chance (~30%) of a rain snow mix in the northwest.

- Thunderstorms will be possible next Tuesday onward. Some of
  these storms could become severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Cold front has plowed through the Panhandles this morning, and
pushed further south than originally anticipated. Front has
stalled just north of Lubbock and right along the Clovis, NM area.
Front may retreat a bit, so much that maybe the far southwest
portion of Deaf Smith county has the potential to get back in the
70s briefly today. Therefore we cancelled the Red Flag Warning
earlier as the threat for critical Fire Weather is too low to
maintain the warning. The rest of the Panhandles will likely have
highs in the 50s to low 60s. As far as the shower/storm potential
for this evening, it`s looking that if we see anything it will be
in the 3pm to 10 pm time frame and across the southeast
Panhandles. A shortwave is expected to passover the surface front
mid afternoon. Forcing along the leading edge of the shortwave as
well as interaction with the front may trigger off some elevated
storms in the Plainview to Childress area, and those storms are
expected to track northeast. Given that the storms will be
elevated, the main concern will be hail 0.5-1.5" in diameter (dime
to ping pong). Light to moderate rain with the storms given PWATS
in the 0.75-1.00" range.

Front will continue to push south tonight and northeast winds at
the surface will continue to usher in moist air with higher
dewpoints. Temperatures in the northwest look to fall down to or
below freezing, and therefore a freeze warning will be issued for
Cimarron, Dallam, Hartley, and Sherman County. Hartley County
will be included for the purpose of Dalhart getting down to
freezing, but most of the rest of the county should be fine. No
concerns for frost in the surrounding ares just above freezing as
there will not be strong radiational cooling tonight, given the
ample cloud cover. This will lead to increased cloud cover and
possibly even some drizzle in some areas. This will continue to
persist through the day on Saturday and into the evening, where
precipitation chances are on the low side, but will not rule out
just a dull drizzly day for some areas, and other will just be low
clouds. Temperatures tomorrow are expected to top out in the 40s
to mid 50s for the most part. As we head into Saturday night the
upper level trough over NM is expected to swing across the
southern high plains, where the center of the low is progged to be
centered between Amarillo and Lubbock. This position allow more
ample moisture over the southern and eastern Panhandles as, we`re
set to be in the deformation zone. While QPF amounts differ
amongst the deterministic models, they all certainly support the
high probability (>70%) of the low end being 0.25" of QPF. So
while we may only have a low chance ~30% for the eastern
Panhandles to pick up an inch, most areas should pick up some
wetting rain overnight into Easter morning. While confidence is
still on the low side (~10%), will not rule out the temperatures
getting low enough Easter morning for some light snow, or
rain/snow mix in some areas.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Residual showers/storms in the morning on Sunday as the upper low
ejects off to the northeast out of the area. Very quickly, warm
northwest flow is expected to return and despite a cold and damp
start to Easter, we should rebound into the 60s with mostly clear
skies by late afternoon. Warm zonal flow will continue into the
work week, and we`ll see our highs on Monday and Tuesday climb
back into the 80s. Big change that looks to be coming our way
starting Tuesday is that the surface moisture looks to finally be
pushing the dryline far enough west so that its in the western
Panhandles. The low level moisture is very ample as well as 700mb
Theta E moisture. A shortwave looks to move across the Panhandle
Tuesday afternoon, and trigger off widespread showers and storms.
Given the setup, severe weather would be favored on Tuesday.
Wednesday may be a bit more quiet between systems, but another
shortwave is expected on Thursday and we may see a repeat of
Tuesday. Certainly looks like we may be going into a pattern
change with increased moisture next week.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 03-06z as cold front
has pushed through and winds out of the north to northeast
10-15kts with some gusts to 25kts will be possible. Thereafter
MVFR cigs will start to push in from the north and all areas may
fall to MVFR cigs by 15z. Will not rule out IFR, but confidence
not high enough, and for now MVFR cigs stay at or above 2kft (KDHT
may be an exception as cigs could go lower, but still holding 2kft
cig at this time. VCSH for now at KGUY, but possible -SHRA after
00z, but confidence too low to even have PROB30 at this time.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                39  59  38  65 /  20  30 100  40
Beaver OK                  35  54  36  64 /  40  20  80  70
Boise City OK              30  49  32  65 /  40  30  70  40
Borger TX                  40  59  39  68 /  30  20  90  50
Boys Ranch TX              37  59  38  68 /  20  30  90  40
Canyon TX                  38  62  37  66 /  20  30  90  30
Clarendon TX               44  62  41  66 /  40  30 100  40
Dalhart TX                 31  52  32  66 /  20  30  90  30
Guymon OK                  32  53  34  64 /  30  20  80  50
Hereford TX                37  62  36  67 /  10  40 100  30
Lipscomb TX                39  55  40  63 /  40  20  90  70
Pampa TX                   40  57  39  64 /  30  20 100  50
Shamrock TX                44  59  43  66 /  50  30 100  50
Wellington TX              46  63  43  67 /  50  40 100  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ001-002-006.

OK...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89