148
FXUS64 KAMA 171122
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
622 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

- Daily thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday night for
  the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

- Temperatures will continue the slow cool down throughout the
  week with highs remaining around average each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

The overall upper level pattern for today through Monday will
remain quiescent across the Panhandles as high pressure remains
in place across the southern US. Even with that being said, very
weak disturbances embedded in the weak flow are still expected to
aid in generating afternoon/evening storms both today and
tomorrow. For today, the H700 moisture axis looks to be centered
over the central/eastern Panhandles by mid to late afternoon.
Different from yesterday, forecast soundings indicate very little
to no mid level temperature inversion so storms will have a higher
potential to develop across the region this afternoon. Sufficient
CAPE will be in place to generate some robust updrafts that could
become severe, however given the lack of wind shear and with H500
temperatures around -5 Celsius, the only severe storm threat
would likely be isolated damaging wind gusts. Even though storms
appear to be scattered in nature for today, the 17/00z HREF mean
PWAT values for this afternoon through this evening are above the
90th percentile based on climatology so isolated instances for
flooding will be possible especially as storms will have next to
no steering flow given the light winds throughout the column.
Storms should be diminishing around midnight or shortly after.

Rinse and repeat pattern for Monday as the center of high pressure
is forecast to be over central/northern New Mexico and very weak
northerly flow should be in place over the southern High Plains.
Once again cannot rule out an isolated severe storm during the
afternoon into the evening hours as well as storms that could
produce locally heavy rain. Rain chances for Monday are around
20-30 percent for pretty much the entire area.

High temperatures for today and tomorrow look to remain in the
mid to upper 90s. These highs are just above average for late
August across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Upper level ridging is forecast to build in across the western CONUS
from Tuesday through the end of the work week. Thankfully for us,
the H500 center of high pressure should stay well west of the
Panhandles so temperatures will not be approaching the triple digit
mark during this time frame. Northerly upper level flow may still
lead to disturbances running parallel to the Rockies that should
generate showers and storms on Tuesday and potentially Wednesday
before northeast to southwest flow sets up late week. With
monsoonal moisture in place, moderate to heavy rainfall will be
the primary hazard with any storms during this time frame but
cannot rule out a marginally severe storm with damaging wind
gusts. The northeasterly flow that is expected to set up will
likely lead to dry conditions late this week. The ridging pattern
across the west may start to break down by this weekend as broad
scale troughing digs from the Canadian Prairies towards the Great
Lakes region. Timing differences on when that could pan out exist
in the model guidance but this could lead to further chances for
rain should northwest flow set up late next weekend.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will generally be out of the south around 10-15kts.
Few to scattered mid clouds. Some pop up storms will be possible
this afternoon, mainly at KDHT and KAMA, so PROB30s have been
noted to cover the best chances for storms. While KGUY currently
has no PROB30s, will not rule out a storm later that could need an
amendment.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...89