Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
859 FXUS64 KAMA 072320 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 620 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 - A cold front will bring increased chances for storms to the area Wednesday into Thursday with gusty winds, lightning and heavy rainfall being the main hazards. - Above average temperatures are expected to continue over the next week, but a potential pattern change could provide occassional heat relief. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 Weather across a majority of the Panhandles is forecast to be rather quiet to start the week, thanks to high pressure returning to the region. Morning water vapor satellite and mesoanalysis show a 593 dam ridge centered squarely atop the southern Great Plains, with troughing over the NE and NW CONUS. This pattern is perpetuating our heat wave today and tomorrow, with highs mostly ranging in the 94- 104 degree range. Winds will be breeziest across the northern Panhandles today, sustained at 15-25 mph out of the south with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds will be a touch lighter for southern and central portions of the Texas Panhandle today and tomorrow, but still breezy out of the south at 10-20 mph. The vast majority of the forecast area will remain dry over the next 48 hrs, with the exception of the far northwest combined Panhandles (~10% POPs today, 10-30% POPs Tuesday). A corridor of higher 700mb theta-e is progged to be in place along the periphery of the upper level ridge in these areas, where weak disturbances could help generate scattered showers/storms in the afternoon-evening hours. Higher theta-e could be advected further south across the Panhandles as well, which may be just sufficient enough for some spotty popcorn convection to develop as well. However, large scale subsidence across these portions of the Panhandles will likely be too detrimental for any meaningful precipitation to materialize (<10% POPs). As seen in previous days, CAPE and shear space is less than ideal for organized severe storms, but the environment will still be conducive for any activity to produce damaging downburst winds. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 The world of Panhandle weather could get a little more interesting looking forward, beginning around midweek and potentially lasting into next week. Models are coming together to predict a potentially active pattern during this time frame, now that there are signs the subtropical jet is finally shifting further south. More precipitation opportunities and slightly cooler temperatures could be in the cards as a result, but are no guarantee. This doesn`t necessarily mean it will feel like fall with drought busting rainfall, but it does suggest that 100 degree heat could become less common with relatively more frequent rain chances. Rain potential looks to peak when a weak front reaches the region this Wednesday, likely set to stall somewhere over the north and central Panhandles. Improved deep layer moisture behind this front in conjunction with better lift from the upper level pattern favors scattered shower/storm development along and north of the boundary Wed afternoon-evening (30-60% POPs). There is still great doubt regarding where this front stalls, but most model data agrees it should be along/north of the I-40 corridor. This front then progresses further south on Thursday, with higher chances to settle south of the I-40 corridor (20-40% POPs north of the boundary). We may have to keep an eye on severe storm potential on Thursday, especially if better CAPE & Shear parameters materialize closer to the boundary like the NAM and ECMWF are showing. PWATs should be quite rich for this time of year (1.25-1.75"), so even though probabilities to exceed 0.5" of rain are only 10-40%, localized totals >1" are certainly plausible from these 2 rounds of rain. Cold air advection will be on the weak side with this front, but should keep highs mostly below 100 on Thursday. After a late week warm up, we very well may have another (more substantial?) cold front to look forward too this weekend into early next week. Long range guidance is still in fairly good agreement regarding the synoptic pattern by then, lending moderate confidence in a more significant cool down with additional rain chances heading into mid-September. Harrel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 VFR conditions continue for the next 24 hours. Breezy winds this evening will become mostly light tonight, around 12 kts or less. Tomorrow late morning, surface winds will pickup once again and flow from the southwest, becoming southerly by the end of the 00Z TAF period. Rangel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...55