979
FXUS64 KAMA 221118
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
518 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Fog, potentially dense for the southwestern Texas Panhandle, is
  expected tonight through Saturday morning.

- Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely on Sunday
  across the Panhandles.

- Quiet and dry weather is expected during the work week leading
  up to and including Thanksgiving day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Fog will likely be ongoing across portions of the western Panhandles
tonight into Saturday morning. The 22/00z HREF continues to paint
the southwestern Panhandles, including Amarillo and I-40 from
Amarillo to the NM/TX state line and areas further south with the
best chances for fog. There continues to be 50 percent or greater
probabilities for visibilities of a half mile or less, so patchy
to areas of dense fog will be possible. Currently there are no
plans on issuing a Dense Fog Advisory but trends will be monitored
into tomorrow morning to see if one is necessary.

Delightful weather is in store for the rest of the day on Saturday
once the fog and low clouds clear out by mid day. Highs during the
afternoon are forecast to increase into the 60s with light westerly
winds around 10 mph or less. The nice weather will not last long
though, as a change is expected going into Sunday morning.

As of this writing, a low pressure system continues to spin off of
the coast of Baja California and is expected to finally move onshore
by Saturday evening. By Sunday morning, the center of low pressure
at H500 should be moving over western Arizona. The southerly flow
over west Texas will aid in allowing moisture transport from the
Pacific and Gulf of America to move in over the Panhandles. PVA
associated with shortwaves out ahead of the main weather system will
provide lift to generate showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.
Rainfall is almost guaranteed for most areas with PoP chances
ranging from 70-95 percent area wide through the early evening
hours. Even though rain chances are so high, this is a scenario
where it is a high PoP, but low precipitation total forecast.
Most locations across the Panhandles only have a 10-25 percent
chance to exceed a half inch of rain by Sunday evening, but there
are still some areas having upwards of 50 percent chances. If the
activity can tap into the low amounts of instability,
thunderstorms may form and moderate rainfall may lead to some of
those locally higher amounts. The low pressure system should
quickly lift northeast with the center of the low being over the
Central Plains by midnight Monday morning and rain showers/storms
should be east of the Panhandles at that point.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Pleasant weather is anticipated for the days leading up to
Thanksgiving next week! For Monday, the forecast area will be on the
backside of the weather system that brought the additional rainfall
on Sunday. Downslope winds along with clear skies are forecast which
will lead to temperatures rising back into the 60s across the region
during the afternoon. The Panhandles will be located on the southern
periphery of a H500 low pressure system moving southeast out of
Alberta towards the Northern Plains by Tuesday into Wednesday. This
feature will propel a cold front southwards across the Plains and
temperatures during the middle of the work week may be slightly
below average. With that low pressure system passing hundreds of
miles to the north, dry conditions are expected leading up to and
including Thanksgiving day. In fact, Thanksgiving day appears to be
quite mild at this time, featuring light winds and highs near
average for late November.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period for
KGUY/KDHT, with IFR conditions to start the TAF period for KAMA.
Low vsbys accompanied by patchy FG at times being reported to
start for the TAF period at KAMA. Low cigs and patchy FG are
expected through about 14-16Z for KAMA, before conditions return
to VFR levels, and should continue throughout the remainder of the
12Z TAF period. Overall winds will start light and variable,
becoming more southwesterly at 5-10 kts for the second half of the
TAF period.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...29