375
FXUS64 KAMA 191908
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
208 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

-Showers and thunderstorm chances expected to continue through
 Monday. Could see a strong storm or two with hail and strong wind
 gusts being the main threats with any robust storm.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Latest 19Z satellite analysis shows the main H500 cut off low
centered over the Phoenix/Tuscon vicinity of Arizona. In-
conjunction with the broad H500 high over the southeast CONUS,
well defined H700-500 moisture transport is setting up from the
Sangre de Cristo range east into the southern High Plains. This
set up will continue throughout the short term forecast period.
Latest 19/12Z hi-res and numerical model data shows various
perturbations continue to move cyclonically around the upper level
low. The most pronounced PVA associated with the mid level
perturbations and their associated omega values for the most
favorable lift will likely be confined to eastern New Mexico, but
cannot rule out areas or additional rain developing as far east
as the western Panhandles. Looking in particular at the latest
model ensemble members for areas across the western Panhandles:
Through tomorrow evening, 25-50% of the 12Z GFS/ECMWF rainfall
totals will exceed 0.75", while the remaining percentage of the
right skewed distribution of the ensemble member outputs show
totals less than 0.50". Of course through this time period going
east of the western Panhandles, rainfall amounts and overall
probability of considerable amounts will decrease at this time.
With mostly cloudy skies across the west and mostly clear skies
across the east, especially by tomorrow afternoon, a dichotomy of
high temperatures are expected tomorrow. Values will range from
the mid 60s to lower 70s in the west to upper 70s to lower 80s in
the east.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

As the main H500 UL disturbance enters the main northern stream UL
jet, the main low will quickly be displaced northeast into the
central Plains by midday Monday. Rain chances return to all the
Panhandles as the main weather system exits the region with rain
chances will wane by Monday night. Dry conditions should then
return Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period as dry
H500 west to northwesterly flow is established with large UL
subsidence throughout the column. Temperatures overall will remain
above average throughout the long term forecast period for most
areas. The only exception will be the northern Panhandles on
Monday where prolonged cloud cover may keep temperatures slightly
below average.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Current 18Z obs shows VFR conditions at KGUY with MVFR/IFR
conditions at KDHT/KAMA due to low cigs. At all TAF sites,
periodically, sub VFR cigs are possible at all TAF sites
throughout the TAF period. PROB30 group introduced at KDHT for
highest chance of low cigs towards the end of the TAF period.
Winds will be out of the south and southeast at 10-20 kts with
higher gusts at times before winds subside past 00Z at 5-15 kts.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                54  75  56  78 /  10  10  50  40
Beaver OK                  50  79  54  78 /  10  10  60  60
Boise City OK              50  66  49  72 /  50  40  80  20
Borger TX                  55  80  58  81 /  10  10  50  50
Boys Ranch TX              55  73  55  76 /  30  30  70  30
Canyon TX                  52  73  56  77 /  20  10  50  40
Clarendon TX               52  77  56  78 /   0   0  20  50
Dalhart TX                 50  66  49  73 /  50  50  90  20
Guymon OK                  50  75  52  76 /  20  30  70  40
Hereford TX                55  71  56  77 /  30  20  60  30
Lipscomb TX                50  78  55  79 /   0   0  30  70
Pampa TX                   51  76  56  79 /   0  10  30  50
Shamrock TX                49  79  55  77 /   0   0  10  60
Wellington TX              50  80  56  79 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29