223
FXUS64 KAMA 030653
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
153 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Continued shower and thunderstorm chances for the next seven days.
However, chances each day will vary across the CWA.

Heat index values may approach or exceed 100 degrees for certain
location on Saturday. The Palo Duro Canyon currently has a high
chance to exceed 100 degree apparent temperatures Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The main idea (BLUF) of the short term period continues to focus
on thunderstorm chances. Convection will mostly correlate with day
time heating, but forcing from the Rocky Mountains tomorrow and a
shortwave trough Friday night will aid in thunderstorms from the
west prolong beyond sunset. Tomorrow CAPE values will be
sufficient enough for scattered thunderstorms to form along a
strong Theta-E gradient over the Southern Plains and portions of
the Texas Panhandle. Organized convection is still not a concern
as other environment parameters are lacking for the production of
severe storms. However, forecast Skew-T profiles continue to
highlight our concerns for flooding.

Tomorrow, PoPs are not as wide spread due to most of the favorable
moisture shifting further east. Later in the evening, some CAMs do
show a small band of shower forming off of an incoming boundary
from the north and colliding along the axis of a trough/pseudo-
dryline in the Oklahoma Panhandle. These storms have a chance to
linger into Saturday as the continue to move into areas of higher
moisture.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

At the forefront of the extended, the upper level dynamics expand
the H500 high further east. Heights should steadily rise during this
timeframe and we will begin to see a new high pressure center form
over the Rockies in the Four Corners region. This pattern looks to
remain in place for the rest of the long term period.

Long range models continue to show an increase in surface
temperatures heading into next week. However, passing shortwaves and
projected cloud coverage should keep high temperatures in the upper
80`s and 90`s. Still, heat index is becoming a concern give how
high RH values continue to be. Some places in the CWA, namely PDC,
may feel like 100 degrees starting Saturday. High moisture
profiles are expected to remain across the CWA as we enter back
into a northwest flow pattern. Daily shower and thunderstorm
chances should continue, but the coverage of this convection may
stay mostly isolated, while occasionally becoming scattered. As
forecast PWAT values continue to stay well above normal for this
time of year, chances of isolated flooding from thunderstorms
remain high.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

MVFR ceilings are expected to advance into AMA from the south
early this morning. Ceilings may even boarder near IFR flight
rules as they continue to drop, but we do not expected them to
prevail as such for any meaningful amount of time. Winds will pick
up speed and all sites and stay breezy from the south through the
afternoon and evening today. Thunderstorms are possible at AMA
this afternoon and could last into the night. Meanwhile, a
different wave of thunderstorms are forecast to impact DHT much
later in the 06Z TAF period. GUY should stay clear during this
timeframe, since chances of thunderstorms impacting the TAF site
are much lower than at AMA and DHT.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55