364
FXUS64 KAMA 040648
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
148 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Heat index values in the Palo Duro Canyon on Saturday are likely
to exceed 100 degrees with a moderate chance that they also reach
105.

Thunderstorm chance continue through Wednesday. Chances are low
for storms to become severe during this time frame, but moderate
chances for flooding are still present.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

We are seeing an expansion and separation of the upper level high
in the short term period and the new center begins to develop over
the southwestern United States. Near term models suggest that
heights may even reach 595 decameters as the center of this high
pressure system continues to jog north. Perturbations off the axis
of this ridge are forecast to aid in the production of additional
thunderstorms for the next couple of day, (as well as the days to
come). Our quality of moisture remains high as upper end Theta-E
values at the surface and the midlevels continue to surge in from
the south.

Today, some subsidence may intrude through portions of the CWA,
so thunderstorm chances are a bit lower today than what we
expected on Saturday. Still, a few thunderstorms are possible in
the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle later this
evening due to an incoming shortwave moving in from southeast
Colorado and Kansas. Some storms may become severe with damaging
wind gusts as the primary threat, but the odds are still low at
this time.

Tomorrow, highs should increase to the low and mid 90`s across the
CWA due to clearing cloud coverage in the afternoon. Dewpoints
are high enough for this to create some heat index concerns for
the area. However, most places will only feel a few degree
difference. For the Palo Duro Canyon, highs are projected to be in
the mid 90`s while dewpoints may reach the lower 70`s. Given
these really moist and hot conditions, the Palo Duro Canyon will
likely exceed 100 degrees and there is a moderate chance that they
also reach 105, based off our current forecast. Heat related
product are being considered, especially since heat index will be
the driving force for product issuance. The caveat to 105 degree
being met will be thunderstorm chances in the afternoon. If a
storm forms over the canyon, the cold outflow will dissuade heat
index values from staying above 100 degrees and 105 may not even
be met. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to impact portions of
the combined Panhandles starting in the late afternoon and should
continue through the evening. Just like Friday, a low end severe
threat is present for damaging winds. Meanwhile, chances for
flooding increase once again. Slow moving thunderstorms will need
to be heavily monitored.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Northwest flow continues to dominate over our region in the
extended forecast. Highs will remain relatively stagnate as the
upper level ridge slowly transitions even further west of the Four
Corners Region. High temperature next week should generally
remain in the upper 80`s and lower 90`s. Daily thunderstorm
chances continue for the foreseeable future as perturbations
should continue to form over our CWA and monsoonal flow remains
intact for New Mexico while shifting over to Arizona a bit. Low
end severe threats cannot be ruled out during this time frame, but
damaging winds should continue to be the primary hazard.
Meanwhile, flooding concerns will remain present as long as
moisture profiles stay abundant across the CWA.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Low clouds continue to affect all TAF sites tonight. AMA should
predominantly stay IFR until the late morning. DHT may
occasionally reach IFR, but is expected to prevail as MVFR. Low
ceilings still have not reached the GUY terminal; but once they
do, the TAF site should also drop to IFR. By this afternoon, skies
are forecast to clear out at all sites. Thunderstorms have the
best chance to affect GUY this evening, but we cannot rule a storm
or two our for DHT. Confidence simply remains too low to make
mentions in the TAF at this time.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55