169
FXUS64 KAMA 221109
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
509 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 244 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

-Mild weather conditions with near to above normal high
 temperatures are forecast through Sunday.

-A series of cold fronts drop through the region starting Monday,
 which should cool temperatures down to average or below average
 through much of the week.

-Low chances (15-30 percent) for light rain and/or light snow to
 occur in the middle of the week and possibly Thanksgiving
 morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 244 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Quiet weather in store for the Panhandles through the weekend and it
should be beautiful! Upper ridging will broadly move across the
region this weekend. With southerly low level flow in place,
temperatures will increase back to above normal. Highs will
gradually increase as the ridge becomes a little more centered over
the region, and readings will eventually top out in the upper 60s
north to the mid and upper 70s south By Sunday. There also is about
a 30-40% probability of temperatures on Sunday greater than 80
degrees in the southeast portion of the Texas Panhandle.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Despite the warmer temperatures on Sunday, the upper ridge flattens
as another west coast low pressure system develops. A surface low
takes shape in the vicinity of the Panhandles and the first in a
series of cold fronts drops south into and through the region during
the day Sunday through Sunday evening.  This will knock overnight
lows back down about 10 degrees and highs on Monday by about 20
degrees. Surface high pressure moves in quickly behind this front
and return flow resumes for mid-week, bringing back more mild
temperatures. Morning lows will be on the cool side especially
across the northern Panhandles, where freezes are more probable. In
addition, the wind chill will make conditions feel cooler on a few
mornings with values around 20 degrees and some teens possible.

The main potential impact will come as we head into Wednesday night
and Thanksgiving morning. Another cold front pushes into the region,
on Wednesday, ushering a cooler airmass. Behind this front, with the
open wave moving through the region, models continue to hint at the
possibility of some moisture and precipitation with this. With it
being about a week out, there remains much uncertainty still but the
fact that models continue to hint that some precipitation may occur
the morning of Thanksgiving lends some confidence to there being
something. Model soundings at this time indicate it beginning as
rain during the latter portions of the evening and then a mixture of
rain and snow before transitioning to all snow by the overnight
hours. The favored location would be in the northwest and northern
Panhandles but will continue to monitor the latest trends for better
timing, location and amounts. At this time, low amounts on the order
of a few tenths of an inch seem most likely, but maybe at best an
inch or two(which is at the 90th percentile). Of course will monitor
given the impactful Thanksgiving holiday.

This system won`t last long and we return to dry conditions and near
normal temperatures to close out the week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at area airports through the TAF
cycle. Winds will shift out of the north today for all sites and
remain southerly through the period with speeds around 10kts or
less.

Culin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                63  33  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  62  32  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              61  30  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  66  34  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              62  29  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  64  32  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               60  36  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 61  28  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  60  27  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                65  32  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                62  36  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   62  36  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                59  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              60  34  68  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...28