Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
488 FXUS64 KAMA 170510 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1110 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1055 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Above average temperatures persist today with breezy winds and dry air. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely for much of the Panhandles. - Next significant weather system looks to be on the horizon for Wednesday through Thursday night, with increased precipitation chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1055 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Latest water vapor satellite imagery and mesoanalysis show ridging is becoming displaced by southwest flow aloft over the region today, as a closed H500 low encroaches upon the Colorado Plateau. This low will be ushered eastward across the Rockies and over the central Plains today (passing just north of the Panhandles), when another system over the Pacific northwest follows in its wake. This pattern will perpetuate highs in the 60s & 70s, and lows in the 30s & 40s today and tonight. With the passage of the upper low to our north, a Pacific front will push from west to east across the Panhandles. Breezy 15-25 mph sustained winds out of the west will be generated as a result, with 30 to 40 mph gusts likely mixing down to the sfc for much of the forecast area, especially along and south of the Canadian River Valley (10-30% chance for a few gusts >40 mph). Tuesday will be much quieter behind a weak cool front as we sit in between systems, with forecast highs topping out a few degrees cooler in the 60s & 70s. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1055 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 By mid week, synoptic flow shifts out of the southwest ahead of the next approaching upper level low. Moisture will start to slowly transport back to the Panhandles through the day and into the overnight hours as better 700mb theta-e is advected, along with slightly higher sfc dew points. Waves of energy within the flow are progged to initiate scattered shower opportunities across southeast portions of the CWA by late Wednesday, with low potential for enough instability for thunderstorms as well. Scattered precipitation may linger through the night and into the day Thursday, likely tapering off Thu night into Friday morning. Activity should initiate further westward during much of this time frame as stronger dynamic lift arrives with a stout upper level jet streak. The main caveat for how long rain can last and just how much moisture ends up over the Panhandles may greatly depend on the track and timing of the low as it ejects over the Plains, which will impact the arrival of a pronounced dry slot. Latest deterministic model projections have trended towards taking this low further south over the forecast area, which would favor slightly better moisture and rainfall totals than previous iterations. Looking at ensemble outputs shows several members still producing even heavier rainfall totals for the central and especially eastern Panhandles through Friday, where deeper convection is more achievable rather than light to moderate showers. In general, a couple tenths of an inch would be most likely in the current forecast scenario for a majority of the CWA, with some outlier potential for higher totals greater than 0.50-1.00" if the slower and further south system evolution unfolds (20-50% chance for >1" of rain in eastern counties). Temperatures will cool to the 50s and 60s Thursday through the weekend, with another weak cold front arriving Friday. Overnight lows below freezing appear likely by Saturday morning. Long range guidance suggests we may be keeping an eye on another potential weather maker by early next week. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 VFR conditions are forecast at all TAF sites over the next 24 hrs. Some marginal LLWS may exist at times tonight, but confidence is too low to include direct mentions in the forecast. Winds will turn out of the southwest at 10-15 kts tonight, increasing out of the west at 15-25 kts during the day with gusts up to 40 kts, especially at KAMA. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38