481
FXUS64 KAMA 102334
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
634 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

 - Very hot to dangerously hot temperatures are expected this
   afternoon and these temperatures may lead to heat related
   illnesses, especially in Palo Duro Canyon State Park.

 - Daily thunderstorm chances throughout the next several days,
   where more robust storms may have strong wind gusts and locally
   heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A hot afternoon across the combined Panhandles where a few
locations already approaching or at 100 degrees as of the latest
18Z obs. Southwest winds will eventually drop Td values into the
30s/40s for areas on the Caprock. On the contrary, for areas off
the Caprock, Td values will remain in the 50s/60s as the dryline
stalls in this vicinity. Latest satellite analysis shows a subtly
wave in the zonal H500 pattern, which could help to generate a
storm or two, if we can overcome the mid level drier airmass, we
could see a storm or two develop (about a 10-20% chance). If a
storm can develop in the aforementioned area east of the dryline,
it will be in an high CAPE moderate shear environment, with a
supercell storm mode possible. Overall rain chances should quickly
diminish further into the evening hours. By Thursday, a cold front
should quickly traverse the Panhandles from north to south. Some
of the latest hi-res model data has the front moving faster than
others, but the trends are the front moving south of all of the
Panhandles by 21-23Z. This will shift rain and thunderstorm
chances further south as well, along and ahead of the front.
Depending on the exact track of the front, we still have around a
20-30% chance of a shower or storm for the SE Texas Panhandle.
Otherwise, after temperatures this afternoon mainly in the 100-110
range, high temperatures behind the front will cool off a bit with
values ranging from the lower 80s in the NW Panhandles to upper
90s in the SE Texas Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A slowly building, but more elongated area of an H500 high
pressure system will take shape over the southern High Plains.
This will result in a rebound of temperatures back to above
average for this time period, with a limited chance of some rain
in the ridge roller pattern, favoring the northern Panhandles. A
more substantial front by Sunday into early next work may bring
more widespread rain chances to the Panhandles. PWAT values in
forecast soundings in the 99th percentile, coupled with very
anemic low level winds may result in heavy rainfall rates from
stratiform and convective modes of rainfall for Sunday and
Monday, where flooding concerns may develop. High temperatures
Sunday through the end of the forecast period should be below
average for mid June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the 0Z TAF period.
Winds will remain out of the SW, with calmer winds in the northern
TX and OK Panhandles, with slightly breezier winds further south
at AMA. Winds will shift out of the N with a frontal passage
starting at GUY around 12Z, then further south to DHT and AMA
through the rest of Thursday morning. Can expect gusty conditions
with this front through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ002>005-007>010-
     012>015-017>020.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...23