026
FXUS64 KAMA 200559
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1259 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

- A pattern change beginning late this weekend and lasting through
  next week is forecast to bring below average high temperatures
  to the Panhandles.

- In addition to the lower temperatures, daily chances for storms
  returns Friday through at least Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

The center of the H300 high pressure system should remain
stationary over the Four Corners region through Thursday night.
North to northeast flow is expected over the region through this
forecast period. The weak cold front that moved through earlier
this morning will stay south of Panhandles today. Even though we
will be on the backside of the front, temperatures this afternoon
should still be able to rebound back into the 90s with the ridge
overhead. CAMs have been very back and forth whether or not pop-up
thunderstorms may occur once again this afternoon. Model soundings
indicate quite a bit of dry air aloft so am hesitant to add
mentionable PoPs for this afternoon. Forecast updates may be
needed if confidence increases in any diurnally driven storms this
afternoon. With the synoptic pattern virtually unchanged for
Thursday, similar conditions to today are expected with highs in
the 90s and dry conditions as northeast flow continues to bring in
dry air in the mid to upper levels.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

High pressure is forecast to remain over the Desert Southwest to
start the day on Friday. The center of high pressure may start to
retreat back to the west during the daytime on Friday as the well
advertised H500 trough begins to dig south across the Northern
Plains and the southern Canadian Prairies. If the ridge can be
pushed far enough west, that may start the daily trend for storms
across at least portions of the Panhandles, with the far northwest
having the potential on Friday night. This scenario would allow mid
level moisture to reach that area and a weak shortwave may generate
storms off of the higher terrain that could reach the northwest
during the evening hours. Otherwise, temperatures should largely
remain in the mid 90s for highs on Friday.

The large, broad scale trough is expected to elongate and deepen by
late this weekend into next week. This feature will suppress the
ridge to the west and northwest to west flow looks to prevail over
the southern High Plains through at least the middle of next week.
Even though the Panhandles will be on the western periphery of the
upper level trough, impacts will still very likely be felt with much
cooler temperatures and increased chances for rainfall. Temperatures
will begin to trend cooler starting this weekend but the cooler air
mass will likely hold off until Monday through the rest of this long
term forecast period. The deterministic 19/01z NBM is likely way too
warm with high temperatures for at least portions of the Panhandles
for next week. The NBM typically struggles with these abrupt pattern
changes, especially when it involves a strong cold front. With that
being said, tremendous uncertainty remains with how cold to go with
temperatures, so will keep the NBM temperatures in there for now,
but do not be surprised if they continue to decrease as we get
closer to next work week.

In addition to the Fall-like temperatures, moisture will increase
throughout the column across the High Plains. The progged upper
level pattern is very favorable for PVA associated with disturbances
to move across the Rockies towards the High Plains each day starting
Saturday. Widespread chances for rain are currently forecast with
PoPs upwards of 50 to 70 percent through Tuesday next week. Blended
ensemble guidance as of now is indicating that the northern
Panhandles up through adjacent portions of the Plains are favored
for the higher rainfall totals. That area will very likely change
over the coming days and it should still be noted that the entire
area has the potential for beneficial rainfall due to the pattern
change next week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Other than thunderstorms in the immediate term for KAMA, VFR
conditions are forecast at all sites. Light winds are forecast
over the next 24 hours with winds around 10 kts or less. Mid level
clouds may build in over the region during this TAF cycle.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05