221
FXUS64 KAMA 101726
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- Thunderstorms continue this morning across portions of the
  panhandles with the main threat being heavy rain and lightning.

- There is a medium chance for another round of thunderstorms
  this afternoon and evening. There is a low chance for strong to
  severe thunderstorms that can produce heavy rainfall, damaging
  winds, and large hail.

- This Friday and through the weekend hot conditions return to the
  panhandles with highs having the potential to reach back into
  the 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A weather system continues to impact the panhandles this morning
and through the rest of today. This system is currently providing
mid level instability across the panhandles that is allowing for
continued rain showers and thunderstorms this morning. Currently
the activity is mainly in the central to southern portions of the
Texas panhandles. This activity will likely wane during the early
to mid morning as the mid level instability is used up. However a
small short wave within the weather system has a medium chance of
moving across the northern and eastern panhandles during the mid
to late morning. This will bring an uptick in instability to these
region leading to a medium chance for further morning rain showers
and thunderstorms. This setup will allow for western portions of
the panhandles to clear out during the mid morning hours and
receive daytime heating compared to the eastern panhandles. This
is important as later this afternoon another shortwave associated
with the weather system has a medium chance of passing across the
western panhandles. If enough instability has rejuvenated in this
area it can lead to another round of thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. The passing of the short wave would provide
increased dynamics providing shear to 30 to 50 mph. Assuming that
the environment fully regenerates the instability this will allow
for CAPE values of 1000 to 2500 J/Kg across the western and
southern portions of the panhandles. This instability coupled with
the shear will allow for strong to severe thunderstorms to
develop. Such storms can start off as more discrete supercells
before becoming more cluster to lines of storms as the day
progresses. The main threat from such storms will be damaging wind
gusts and large hail. Still, the chance for such storms is low as
it heavily depends on how much instability exists. It is
completely possible that the rain and clouds do no clear out fast
enough during the morning meaning little instability regeneration
occurs. This can curtail the severe threat or even the chances
for further thunderstorms entirely. Now, through the whole of this
morning and through all of today high amounts of moisture will be
present across the panhandles. This will allow for any rain
shower or thunderstorms to produce heavy rainfall. This opens up a
low chance for flooding if heavy enough rainfall occurs for long
enough over any given area. The weather system that is causing all
this active weather will depart the area later this evening
drawing away the moisture and instability. This will see the
chances for further rain showers and thunderstorms wane during the
evening and then ceasing going into very early Friday morning.
Another benefit of all the expected active weather will be cooler
temperatures across the panhandles. This can see large swaths of
the panhandles have 80s for highs. 90s can still occur for area
that clear out sooner and receive more sunlight and daytime
heating.

Friday the weather system departs the region with a broad and flat
high pressure system building across the southern plains. This
will help to setup a zonal flow aloft across the southern plains
with the panhandles being underneath the northern portions of the
high pressure system. The arrival of the higher pressure system
and the departure of the weather system will see the moisture
depart the panhandles with more stable conditions setting up. This
will lead to a dry and fair weather day across the panhandles for
Friday. The surface winds will also shift to the southwest
helping to bring in hotter air across the panhandles. The drier
conditions coupled with the winds can lead to spotty elevated fire
weather concerns mainly for the southwestern Texas panhandle. The
hot air advection coupled with the subsidence heating of the high
pressure system will cause the temperatures to spike up. This will
bring hot conditions back to the panhandles with the highs
returning back to the upper 90s to low 100s, which is well above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

This weekend is most likely to start off with a broad west to east
flow across the southern plains. The panhandles will likely stay
broadly on the northern fringes of a high pressure system that is
helping setup this flow. This will allow a small scale weather
system to pass across the panhandles bringing a low chance for
rain showers and thunderstorms favoring the eastern panhandles.
With the panhandles under the high pressure the temperatures will
likely remain hot with highs in the 90s to 100s.

This flow will then begin to shift on Sunday as a larger scale
weather system starts to deepen across western CONUS on Sunday.
This will shift the flow to be more southwesterly with the
panhandles still under the northwestern portion of the high
pressure system. This will still allow for a small scale weather
system passage over the panhandles bringing another low chance for
rain showers and thunderstorms favoring the western panhandles.
the bigger ticket item is the shifting pattern will bring a
strengthening pressure gradient to the southern plains. This will
make it more likely for stronger winds to blow across the
panhandles. This does introduce the threat of elevated to even low
end critical fire weather conditions across portions of the
panhandles on Sunday. It will still likely remain hot across the
panhandles with highs in the 90s to 100s.

Monday through Wednesday the large scale weather system passes
across the northern and southern plains passing a cold front into
the southern plains. This would bring an increase in dynamics and
instability to the panhandles for the first half of next work
week. The passage of the weather system seems more likely than not
to draw up copious amounts of gulf moisture in the southern
plains including the panhandles. The combination of the moisture
and weather system can kick off a period of active weather across
the panhandles. Currently there remains a low to medium chance for
rain showers and thunderstorms mainly on Monday and Tuesday.
Wednesday is looking less favorable with only a low chance as the
weather system is more likely than not to have pushed off further
to the east. Still any prospect of rain is welcome in the
panhandles as we are still in drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the 18Z TAF period.
Winds will remain light, predominantly out of the E before turning
more from the S later today. A PROB30 has been added at KAMA from
23Z to 03Z due to thunderstorm potential this afternoon/evening,
however, spatial coverage of thunderstorms is still uncertain. No
effects from thunderstorms expected at KDHT or KGUY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...23