009
FXUS64 KAMA 191912
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
212 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, trending
closer to below normal at most locations late this weekend into
early next week.

An upper level storm system is expected to bring more showers and
thunderstorms to the area Friday afternoon into Sunday morning.
Some storms may become severe Saturday afternoon and evening across
the western half of the area, with damaging winds and large hail
the primary hazards.

Another upper level storm system may impact the region late Monday
night into Wednesday and could bring more precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Hot temperatures for Sep continue today and tomorrow across the
area. Underneath high pressure today the FA should remain dry with
one caveat. The southeastern Texas Panhandle which is seeing Tds
in the upper 60s has around a 10 percent chance for a stray
shower/thunderstorm. This is will be thanks to a surface boundary
created by a surface trough that could allow low level moisture
and possibly some convergence to help with lift. Tomorrow, an
approaching upper level low will bring additional chances of rain,
this time mainly in the western and far northern combined
Panhandles.

Based on current GOES-16 water vapor imagery, the low that is
expected to bring initial rain chances to the area tomorrow with
the main show on Sat is located on the coast of CA just south of
the Bay Area. By tomorrow morning this low is progged to be
centered on the coast of far southern CA. Through the day the low
will gradually push east ending up just south of the southern tip
of NV. During this time the mid to upper level ridge shifts just
enough to work with the low in bringing a plume of Pacific
moisture up into area from the west coast of Mexico. The initial
moisture and possible PVA with initial perturbations in the flow
aloft have given some 20 PoPs to the western combined Panhandles
and eventually the OK Panhandle tomorrow evening. Timing is a bit
uncertain with the precipitation tomorrow. However, the afternoon
hours are looking to be the most likely time with a small chance
of rain before 1 PM or after 7 PM. Again this is mainly looking
like only a fraction of the overall FA in the west and far north.
Widespread severe storms are not anticipated, with maybe an
isolated severe storm popping early in the day across the far
western combined Panhandles.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A mid to upper level low pressure system is progged to bring in
some rain chances Sat into Sat then bring a cold front Sun to cool
temperatures off to near normal. Depending on the track of this
upper level low, which still holds a bit of uncertainty, will
determine how much of the combined Panhandles will see a
significant or beneficial rainfall. Chances are higher to see more
widespread rain Sat compared to Fri, with 70 to 80 pops across the
west to northwestern half of the combined Panhandles Sat into Sat
night. The track of the low will play a key role in where these
higher pops end up with a chance for some isolated rain amounts
well above half and inch, maybe even an inch. Further south and
east are less favorable with Amarillo only seeing a 50 to 60 PoP
at this time. Some models do have the upper low weakening as it
gets into AZ and then shoot straight northeast into UT. This kind
of track can make the southeastern combined Panhandles less
favorable for any beneficial moisture.

Depending on quickly the upper level trough swings to the
northeast some lingering showers/thunder could be possible in the
eastern FA on Sun. Have stayed with NBM PoPs giving the eastern
Panhandles 20 to 30 for the 7 AM to 1 PM time period. The NBM is
also painting the far southeast TX Panhandle with 30 to 40 PoPs
after 1 PM on Sun. This may not come to fruition as the cold front
with this system pushes through and sinks the higher Tds to
further to the south and southeast. The front may help bring lift
for thunderstorms on Sun. However, depending on the track of the
upper level low the available moisture may be displaced away from
the FA with a dry slot setting up over the area. One thing to
mention about Sunday as well is the that the highs on Sunday with
the NBM has come in a few degrees warmer compared to the previous
forecast.

For the rest of the extended, the FA is progged to have
temperatures near normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Some
additional precip chances will be possible starting late Mon into
Tue as another trough digs down from MT into Colorado then
eventually forming a closed low over the Four Corners Region late
Tue. The NBM is giving 20 to 40 PoPs across the area favoring the
southwest this time.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A nice quiet TAF period is in store through 18Z Friday. Fairly
light winds (~10 kts) are expected with mostly clear skies.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                69  96  68  89 /   0  10  10  50
Beaver OK                  62  99  69  89 /   0  20  10  50
Boise City OK              57  89  61  76 /   0  30  20  80
Borger TX                  68 101  69  94 /   0  10  10  50
Boys Ranch TX              65  95  65  86 /   0  20  20  70
Canyon TX                  67  94  65  89 /   0  10  10  60
Clarendon TX               70  97  68  92 /  10   0   0  30
Dalhart TX                 59  88  61  78 /   0  20  30  80
Guymon OK                  59  95  64  83 /   0  20  10  70
Hereford TX                67  95  65  89 /   0  10  10  60
Lipscomb TX                67 100  71  94 /   0  20   0  30
Pampa TX                   68  97  68  91 /  10  10  10  40
Shamrock TX                69  99  69  94 /  10   0   0  20
Wellington TX              71 100  69  97 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36