699
FXUS64 KAMA 212336
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
536 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 222 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

- Mild weather conditions with near to above average high
  temperatures are forecast through Sunday.

- A cold front looks to cool temperatures down to potentially
  below average late this weekend into early next week.

- Low chances (10-20 percent) for light rain or light snow in the
  middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 222 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

A ridging pattern is building in over the central CONUS today as
weak high pressure builds over this region. The ridge is forecast
to remain over the Southern High Plains today and tomorrow which
will lead to quiet weather conditions. This afternoon,
temperatures have risen into the mid 50s to lower 60s which is
leading to a nice Fall day outside along with very light winds.
With winds remaining light overnight and mostly clear skies,
another cool start to the day is expected for Friday with lows
near to below freezing. Would not be surprised to see frost once
again across much of the area tomorrow morning as RH values will
be above 80 percent and temperatures will be near to below
freezing. Surface and low level winds will take on a
southwesterly, somewhat downslope component tomorrow which should
bring in slightly stronger WAA with highs mainly in the 60s for
tomorrow. To summarize, the rest of today through tomorrow will
be very nice days outside so get out and enjoy the nicer days
before cooler temperatures arrive over the next few months.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Weak upper level high pressure should reside over the region
through most of this upcoming weekend. This pattern will continue
the warming trend with Sunday looking to be the hottest day of
this next week. Afternoon highs on Sunday could be approaching the
mid to upper 70s across the southern TX Panhandle, which are only
a few degrees below the record values for November 24.
Temperatures further north will depend on how far south the first
weak push of cooler air makes it during the daytime on Sunday. In
general, breezy southwest to west winds are forecast for this
weekend outside of the northern Panhandles where winds may turn
northerly at some point on Sunday.

The stronger front along with colder air mass should push
southward on Monday across the Panhandles. Just how long that
cooler air mass remains in place is the big question. Most
guidance warms the CWA back up to above average for highs on
Tuesday. Tuesday night through Thanksgiving, model guidance has a
wide variety of potential solutions for pretty much all forecast
elements. The high temperature spread from the 21/13z NBM shows a
15 to 20 degree difference between the 25th to 75th percentile for
Wednesday, which leads to very low confidence in any specific
temperatures this far out. Additionally, model guidance varies on
the strength and timing of a potential shortwave moving over the
central US on Wednesday/Thursday next week. This wave, if it does
pan out like some models suggest, could bring precipitation in the
form of rain or snow during this time period. Based on the
progressive nature of the low pressure system, any precipitation
amounts (if any develops over the Panhandles) would likely be on
the lower side which would also have lesser potential impacts for
Thanksgiving day travel.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Mostly light and variable winds with VFR sky conditions are
forecast at all sites throughout the 00z TAF period.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                33  64  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  29  62  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              29  62  29  67 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  33  66  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              30  62  29  71 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  32  63  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               33  60  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 28  62  27  68 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  27  60  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                31  65  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                32  62  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   34  63  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                33  60  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              33  61  34  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...38