074
FXUS64 KAMA 031950
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

- Intermittent showers continue tonight through tomorrow across
  much of the combined Panhandles.

- Chances for snow or at least a rain/snow mix increase Friday
  night through Saturday, especially across the western to central
  Panhandles.

- Very cold wind chills for April standards will exist Saturday
  and Sunday mornings, with single digit wind chills possible for
  northwest counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Today is one of the rare instances where we found ourselves
retaining a lot more moisture across the Panhandles than just
about any model had previously indicated, helping to prolong our
light showers across much of the area. Across the northwest
Panhandles, clearing skies have allowed approx ~250 J/kg of MUCAPE
to develop in conjunction with 30-40 kt bulk shear. This elevated
instability and sufficient shear could support a 30-50% chance
for some spotty thunderstorms to develop in the area this
afternoon, with lightning and gusty winds. Drier air will briefly
filter in and put a pause on precipitation this evening, but
moisture will quickly be replenished by strong H700 theta-e
advection and mid-level lift overnight.

Expect very similar conditions tomorrow morning through much of
the day, although greater synoptic forcing from the approaching
upper level storm system and increasing PWATs should lead to even
more efficient and widespread rain production across the CWA.
Another brief break in the action is likely tomorrow evening as
the low approaches the Trans Pecos region of Texas, before it
lifts northeastward across the High Plains on Saturday. By this
point in the event, models agree many locations in the forecast
area will likely have received about 1/4 to 3/4 inches of rain
since this morning. But the best precip may have yet to come,
arriving along and behind a cold frontal passage Friday night into
Saturday, providing a change over to snow or at least a rain-snow
mix for the western to central Panhandles.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

An admittedly tricky forecast will ensue on Saturday, when
portions of the western to central Panhandles will have the
potential for heavy snow, while others in the same areas could
see little to no snow at all. Timing the arrival of cold air with
the front and upper level low will be crucial in getting rain to
fully transition to snow Saturday morning, which in turn will
effect final snow amounts. Eastern Portions of the Panhandles
are favored to maintain rain or a rain-snow mix throughout the
event, with much lighter (if any) snow accumulations forecast.

Unfortunately, model guidance is still all over the place
regarding the strength, timing, and track of the low, so we may
not have a more clear picture of what to expect until the low
approaches the Rockies tomorrow. If the low slows down and tracks
further south as indicated by recent runs of the NAM and Euro, we
could see a delayed onset of winter weather and lighter snow
totals, similarly to the March 8 event last month. In this
scenario, we would actually see warmer air move infiltrate the
northern Panhandles from Kansas, with colder air and heaviest
snow staying shunted to our south (closer to Lubbock). If the low
lifts further north closer to the Panhandles Saturday morning -
afternoon like the GFS and Canadian suggest, then the western to
central Panhandles (especially south of the Canadian River Valley)
could have ripe conditions for heavier bands of snow to develop.
1-3 inches of accumulations would be realistic through the day,
with 40-70% probabilities to exceed 4" if everything comes
together just right. Thankfully, we have high confidence that
moisture should not be a limiting factor (as reinforced by the
unexpected presence of abundant moisture today), and a vast
majority of the forecast area has great odds to receive 0.5-1.5"
of liquid precip by Saturday night.

Regardless, be prepared for potentially hazardous driving
conditions due to reduced visibility in heavy and wind driven
snowfall, along with the potential for slick roadways underneath
any heavier bands. Breezy north winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up
to 40 mph will create anomalously cold wind chills for this time
of year, dropping "feels like" temperatures in the teens and 20s
Sat and Sun mornings, especially across the NW Panhandles (10-30%
chance for single digit wind chills). We`ll warm up nicely next
week once the system departs, leaving precipitation chances behind
while highs in the 70s and 80s return to the forecast as early as
Tuesday.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Cloudy skies and light showers are persisting across the area
today, with the exception of the far northwest Panhandles, where
clearing may allow enough instability to get a couple of
thunderstorms in the vicinity of KDHT this afternoon. Showers will
briefly dissipate tonight before another round of scattered
activity develops through tomorrow. Winds will be breezy this
afternoon at 20 kts with higher gusts, before subsiding
overnight. Direction will be mostly out of the southeast. Cloud
decks will likely bounce between VFR and IFR throughout the
period.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                42  58  30  40 /  70  70 100 100
Beaver OK                  40  60  30  45 /  60  70  90  70
Boise City OK              35  56  23  41 /  20  60 100  70
Borger TX                  44  61  31  45 /  60  60 100  90
Boys Ranch TX              42  59  30  40 /  50  60 100 100
Canyon TX                  41  57  29  39 /  80  70 100 100
Clarendon TX               44  59  34  42 /  80  70 100 100
Dalhart TX                 37  56  24  40 /  30  60 100  90
Guymon OK                  38  59  26  44 /  30  60  90  70
Hereford TX                40  58  29  38 /  70  70 100 100
Lipscomb TX                43  59  32  43 /  70  80  90  80
Pampa TX                   43  60  31  41 /  70  70 100  90
Shamrock TX                43  60  34  44 /  80  80  90  90
Wellington TX              44  60  36  46 /  80  80  90  90

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38