862
FXUS64 KAMA 011826
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
126 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

-Chances of showers and thunderstorms remain present through the
 holiday week with each day seeing roughly 20% to 40% chance. Any storm
 could produce very heavy rain leading to localized flooding.

-A brief break from showers and thunderstorms for the holiday will
 see increasing temperatures with highs returning to the lower
 90s.

-More chances for showers and thunderstorms return for the
 holiday weekend as a secondary system pushes in Saturday and
 Sunday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Upper level ridging from the Four Corners Region to the Southern
Great Plains remains, although a bit disorganized and weak.
Currently there is a mid to upper level low over central CA. A
large area of atmospheric moisture remains over the Southern Great
Plains down into Mexico. Increased moisture over this area is
expected to keep the FA slightly below normal in the upper 70s to
lower 80s today and tomorrow, as clouds reduced insolation.

Atmospheric moisture remains abundant across the region, and will
continue to provide PoPs for FA. For today however, there may be a
lack of lift for any impactful rainfall. May see short live
showers more so than thunderstorms. Have reduced the PoPs leaving
only slight chance to chance PoPs mainly for the southern TX
Panhandle. Even going into tomorrow, the NBM is still giving some
pretty high PoPs around 40 to 50 across the southern half of the
TX Panhandle. This may be a bit overdone at this time, but have
left the NBM PoPs for now. Overall, CAMs are not excited about
thunderstorm activity especially north of I-40 through tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

On the 4th of July, the FA is progged to be back in the upper 80s to
lower 90s for the afternoon. NBM PoPs have slight chances for
thunderstorms in the far northern FA and in the southeastern FA
during the afternoon evening. Models are not in good agreement and
do not have a handle on what exactly to expect for the holiday.
Would be optimistically hopeful that it will not rain on
festivities, but prepared for some interruptions as we remain in a
very moist environment.

Saturday, temperatures raise even more into the mid to upper 90s.
Slight chance to chance PoPs will cover much of the combined
Panhandles for Saturday night as well. A slight cool down may be in
store for Sunday with afternoon temperatures capping around the
lower 90s to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

All three terminals most likely to remain MVFR to VFR through the
18Z TAF period. Plenty of moisture remains present in the
atmosphere across the combined Panhandles. This will keep the
potential for showers and maybe even a thunderstorm during the
period. Confidence remains low at this time, as enough lift for
impactful rain is limited today. Therefore, have left any mentions
of showers or thunder out of the TAF at this time. Amendments,
mainly for KAMA, may be needed down the road. Some low clouds may
drop KAMA down to MVFR later this period in the overnight hours as
well.

36

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36