798
FXUS64 KAMA 160639
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
139 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Chances for impactful weather remain low for the rest of the
week. High temperatures should slowly rise towards the end of the
week, and overall precipitation chances remain low. Next week,
highs may return to the 100s across much of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The upper level ridge becomes elongated across much of the CONUS
during the short term period. South to southeasterly surface wind
flow will continue across the region for the next couple of days,
allowing for quality moisture retention in the Panhandles. Slow
height rises and high moisture content should prevail in keeping
high temperatures near or below average today and Friday. Due to
persistent weak forcing, shower and thunderstorm coverage during
this period will remain isolated. However, thunderstorm outflow from
convection south of our CWA could lead to increased development
across the southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening. A
similar convective regime may unfold on Friday as well. While CAMs
remain uncertain on the exact placement of thunderstorms, these
models more consistently favor our southern zones for measurable
QPF. Therefore, PoPs will remain largely focused in the southern
Texas Panhandle despite overall chances staying low to medium. (15-
35%).

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Global models have shown increased consistency these past few runs
in allowing the upper ridge to drift southward and center more over
the High Plains next week. While the strength of the ridge is
somewhat uncertain, some models suggest heights could rise up to 600
decameters at the 500 mb level. With forecast relative humidity also
shown to deplete in the extended, a hot and relatively dry weather
pattern may manifest for the remainder of July. High temperatures
next week should return to the upper 90s, and even triple digit heat
could become more widespread outside of just the Canadian River
Valley and Palo Duro Canyon. Despite the drier trend, PoPs actually
don`t decrease all too much for the next 7 days. Convection may be
more focused in our northwest zones due to thunderstorm propagation
off the high terrain. Additionally, if the high pressure center
shifts further west over the Rockies, we could enter into a
northwest flow regime and precipitation will have more favorable
transportation into our CWA. However, if the high shifts further
east over the plains, rain chances should decrease considerably.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 06Z TAF period. VRB wind
speeds are expected until 15Z at DHT and GUY, and until 17Z at AMA.
After that, winds will remain out of the SE from 10-15 kts for the
remainder of the TAF period.

23

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...23