698
FXUS64 KAMA 121131
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
631 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Thursday, while
critical fire weather conditions should occur on Friday.

High winds are likely on Friday in the Texas Panhandle. Blowing
dust also has a high chance to accompany these very strong winds.

Rain is still possible in the northwest on Friday, but only light
amounts are expected if anything at all.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Today a weak cold front passes through our CWA. Wind direction
will change from west to north, but then quickly revert back from
the west by tomorrow. A surface low will accompany this passing
shortwave. Wind speeds will be light in our northeast zones this
afternoon as the low passes through. Afterwards, the surface
pressure gradient will tighten and reposition itself westward as
we prepare for our next incoming system.

Despite the trough traversing through our area, temperatures will
stay mostly consistent with what we have be receiving thus far
this week. Widespread 70`s and some upper 60`s are forecast both
today and tomorrow. Wildfire conditions are not expected to be met
in our area today, as the catalyst would be RH driven. Wind
speeds will be somewhat breezy today in the southern and western
Texas Panhandle, but wind speeds should not be high enough to
warrant a fire weather product. Tomorrow may be a different story,
given the stronger winds expected across much of the area.
Ironically, RH values will be recovering with minimum values
ranging between 15-20% instead of single digits. Even so, a Red
Flag Discussion may still be needed for locations in our
northwestern zones.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Recent 00Z model runs depict the center of the incoming upper
level low tracking across northern portions of our CWA instead of
further north in Kansas. Essentially, this would place the
vorticity maximum further south instead of directly overhead and
promotes the strongest winds south of our CWA. Nevertheless,
greater than 60 mph gusts are still favored for the southern half
of the Texas Panhandle and some areas in the northwest. A High
Wind Watch has been issued due to our confidence in these strong
winds occurring, but the area under influence may change in the
coming days due to the persistent uncertainty on exactly where
the center of the upper low will track. Our current time frame for
the highest wind speeds will be from 9AM to 4PM. Critical fire
weather conditions are still anticipated across much of the region
on Friday, but RFTI values have decreased slightly due to
increased forecasted RH values. If the frontal progression is
quicker than what is expected, RH values will rise further and
greatly limit fire weather potential in our northwest zones.
Locations further south and east are still under favorable
critical fire weather contention. Precipitation, likely rain, is
still possible behind the passing front Friday night. Current NBM
POPs range between 20-40%, but there has been an overall downtrend
amongst mid and long range model guidance. If any rain were to
occur, only light amounts are expected.

The rest of the extended is relatively quiet, but long range
guidance is showing hints of more fire weather days next week as
we continue to heat up and dry out.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

No major changes were made to the 12Z TAFs. To recap...

VFR conditions still prevail for the next 24 hours. High level
clouds will enter the area today, but ceilings should remain at or
above 20,000 ft. Some breezy northwest winds will be present at
the surface this afternoon at all sites, but they will die down
once again in the evening.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                74  40  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  74  35  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              69  34  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  78  40  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              75  36  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  74  39  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               76  42  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 72  31  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  72  34  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                73  38  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                74  39  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   75  40  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                78  41  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              78  42  79  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     TXZ001-006>008-011>020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55