482
FXUS64 KAMA 081139
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
639 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Above average temperatures are expected to continue over the
  next week with near record highs expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Strong to severe wind gust, lightning and heavy rainfall will be
  the main hazards as a cold front brings increased chances for
  storms to the area Wednesday into Thursday.

- A trend toward a pattern change is expected to continue next
  week as cold fronts bring 50 to 60 percent chance for above
  normal rainfall to the area along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A mid-upper level high center over the Panhandles Monday will
continue to move NE and will be located near SE KS/SW MO by 00UTC
Wed. This will improve chances for mountain storms to reach Cimarron
County Tue late aftn and evening given moisture axis and instability
present. NBM 20-30 POPs seems reasonable. Gusty winds and lighting
would be the main hazards. The ridge will promote hot temperatures
once again and Tuesday may be the hottest day of the week. Current
forecasts are near or above record highs at all three climate sites.
Similar to today, a more srly flow (rather than sw) will help keep
temps from reaching advisory levels.

A S/WV traversing the NRN plains will break down the high center and
cause it to re-postion to the Desert SW by 18UTC Wed. Models agree a
weak cold front associated with the trough (likely helped along by
TSTM outflow the night before) will push into the area on Wednesday.
Moisture pooling along the front is forecast to lead to a band of
PWs exceeding 1.5 inches. Global models favor the northern
Panhandles for the position of the stalled front and therefore the
highest moisture and instability, however several CAMs including
RRFS favor more of a central to southern location by aftn.
Generally, leaning south is the way to go here with most of these
boundaries and therefore will bring better POPs south a bit faster
than the NBM would indicate Wed Aftn. With the weakening ridge
overhead, wind shear will be weak and storms will be disorganized.
Very localized heavy rainfall and strong to severe wind gusts will
be the main hazards along with lighting. Wouldn`t rule out
landspouts given large amounts of boundary interactions that will
likely occur. Frontal boundary position will also have implications
regarding which if any climate sites will reach record highs on Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Thursday forecast is very uncertain given unknown impacts from
previous day storms and high uncertainty regarding the position of
the frontal boundary and old outflow boundaries after the dust
settles. That said, Thursday appears to have more favorable
parameters for an organized severe convective event than Wednesday
as the ridge weakens, NW flow becomes better established, S/WVs look
stronger, moisture axis remains good and for the first time in a
long time, notable wind shear is indicated by models.
Unfortunately, confidence may not improve until we see the whites
of its eye regarding the scope of Thursday`s convective potential
and this will bear watching to say the least. NBM shows most of
the area has a 15 to 40% chance of seeing 1/2 inch or more event
total rainfall Wed-Thu and if anything this has slightly trended
up the last few days.

The mid-upr level high center will be back on the move through the
weekend and the center may reach the SE US by Monday, but models are
not in good agreement. In fact, the 12Z GEM was much slower with the
transition east and kept it centered over the area on Monday. In
general, above normal temperatures and isolated storms is forecast
for the weekend. The models continue to show a significant front
with associated POPs early next week but timing remains days apart.
The 6-10 day CPC outlook indicates a 50-60% chance for above normal
precip which suggests majority of the model ensembles are on board
with producing some beneficial rainfall with a frontal system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Partly to mostly sunny skies and VFR conditions expected for most
of the day. Winds will back by mid day to the south and become
gusty at 25-28kt. There is a chance of some late afternoon and
early evening showers/tstms which at this time look to affect
mainly Cimarron Co, OK. Wednesday afternoon looks to be more
interesting with sct showers/tstms expected along a frontal
boundary across a good portion of the panhandle region.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION...54