664
FXUS64 KAMA 301822
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
122 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

- Scattered to widespread thunderstorms may lead to flash
  flooding today. The highest chance for flooding is for the
  northern combined Panhandles. A low chance for severe
  thunderstorms is also in affect today.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms remain present through the
  weekend with any multi-day accumulation making area more prone
  to localized flooding.

- Hot temperatures are expected to return next week with potential
  to be back near or over the triple digit mark by next Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

As of early this afternoon, latest satellite and radar imagery
continues to see light showers push across the western and
northern portions of the Panhandles thanks to a present short-wave
boundary taking advantage of the already high moisture present.
Meanwhile just our north, satellite are also seeing the expected
cold front starting to push into the Panhandles much earlier than
most CAMs expected. The combination of this wave and the earlier
arrival has changed expectation for activity this afternoon, with
the southern and eastern portions of the Panhandles now becoming
the more likely stage for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. As it
stands these areas are, especially the southeast, have seen little
to no cloud cover through this morning, which will allow them
better access to the instability needed to better produce showers
and thunderstorms. However, the latest CAM analysis has seen these
areas drop off in terms of CAPE values with most model see MLCAPE
under 1000 J/kg and MUCAPE around 1200 to 1500 J/kg. The only
exception to this is the recent RAP runs that are still calling
for over 3000 MUCAPE in places. Still if we factor in just the
lower values, there is potential to see an isolated strong to
sever storm that could lead damaging wind gusts and large hail.
Regardless the primary concern continues to be on flooding
potential with most CAMs calling for PWAT values running anywhere
from 1.5 to near 2.0 inches. With PWAT values this high, any
thunderstorm that can get going could easily produce torrential
rainfall with a lot of the the present mesoscale features also
favoring training storms. However with the present set up, what
may need to be watch instead is training showers that continue to
move over an area, especially if the present models are accurate
in the secondary short-wave moving in behind the front later this
evening.

Moving into the overnight and the early morning hours of Thursday
will potentially see this activity linger thanks to linger effects
of the short-wave. Depending on how long this activity lingers
will impact the chances that are expected to follow Thursday
afternoon with most models calling for the arrival of yet another
short-wave disturbance. At this time, guidance is giving us a 20
to 40% chance of seeing activity, but anything linger from today
may see those chances drop. Either way temperatures will look to
cool behind this incoming front with afternoon highs for Thursday
looking to be in the low to mid 80s for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

A we close in on the end of the work week and the weekend, model
agreement continues see us on the edge of a building upper-level
high pressure system to our southwest. This placement does give us
enough leeway to stay in a northwesterly flow pattern, which over
the Panhandles tends to allow for short-waves to push through and
bring chances of showers and thunderstorms. At this time guidance,
does agree with that sentiment with 15 to 30% chances of storms
present through the weekend. However as we move into Sunday, model
agreement begins to see the expected high to build further and
start to shift eastward. This shift will being to push our chances
further east until we finally dry out Monday with the high now
settled over the top of the Panhandles. From there many of the
models look to hold this pattern with temperatures on the rise for
the start of next week. If this pattern holds then it is possible
for most locations to start nearing the triple digit mark as early
as Tuesday with Amarillo seeing chances to finally reach 100
degrees Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Light showers and cloud cover remain present from the weak
disturbance that move in early this morning, which has made
vicinity shower possible around KDHT and KGUY. Unfortunately this
earlier action has seen the expected thunderstorm and heavy
rainfall potential shift further south, which has put KAMA at
higher chances for impact rather KGUY. However, given the multiple
mesoscale features that needed for this set up, confidence is
still not the highest on exact impacts to KAMA as well as KDHT,
so have chosen to leave as a PROB30 for now. Should something form
over the area, expectations would be more focused on the
potential for heavy to torrential rainfall that would reduce
visibility quite a bit.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ004-005-007>014-
     016>018-317.

OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11