Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
657 FXUS64 KAMA 170519 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1219 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 929 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 -Residual shower or storm (~20% chance) later today for the eastern Texas Panhandle. -Watching for frost potential late Saturday night into Sunday morning, especially for the NW Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tomorrow night) Issued at 929 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Current 04-05Z obs across the region shows the main sfc dryline/Pacific front continuing to mix east into eastern NM. This should continue to mix into the western and central Panhandles through around sunrise where showers and thunderstorms will be possible, and should quickly dissipate before sunrise. Gusty winds and vivid lightning will be possible with the more robust storms. Going throughout the day today, as the main longwave H500 positive tilted trough slowly moves east through the Four Corners Region and into New Mexico, out ahead of the main trough axis, a large domain of negative abs vorticity will traverse the Panhandles, which should keep the area dry throughout most of the day. By the evening hours, as the main trough axis enters the Panhandles, the far eastern combined Panhandles may have enough broad lift downstream of the main trough axis where additional showers and thunderstorm chances will return (about a 20-30% chance). Locally heavy rainfall rates and gusty winds will be possible with the more robust thunderstorms that can develop. H500 NW flow in the wake of the trough, along with sfc northerly flow will bring cooler and large scale subsidence with dry conditions. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in the NW Panhandles to lower 80s in the SE Texas Panhandle. By tomorrow night, a surface high will develop across the combined Panhandles. As H850 CAA drops H850 temps to 7C-9C by early Sunday morning and with large scale subsidence under the high pressure resulting in very light winds, low temperatures tonight should drop very quickly. Observing the latest NAM/RAP/NBM trends, areas in the NW Panhandles could easily drop into the mid and upper 30s. There is a 20-30% chance where temperatures combined with light winds may result in patchy frost developing by Sunday morning. Will watch trends closely to see if these conditions spread across a larger domain. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 929 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Dry conditions will continue throughout the majority of the long term forecast period. H500 zonal flow should keep the active weather pattern across the northern CONUS, with much weaker flow and large scale subsidence across the south central CONUS. Temperatures through the coming week will be a bit of a roller coaster with above average temps on Monday. This will be followed by near to below average temps Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period behind a cold front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period at all TAF sites. We are closely monitoring some VCTS conditions for KGUY for the first hour or so of the TAF period as TS activity should quickly move northeast of the TAF site past 07Z. Winds overall will be around the dial at 5-10 kts under mostly clear skies. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29