040
FXUS64 KAMA 091140
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
640 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across the west and
  central Panhandles today - some of the storms could be severe,
  with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the primary
  hazards.

- Very hot to dangerously hot temperatures are expected on
  Wednesday and these temperatures may lead to heat related
  illnesses, especially in Palo Duro Canyon State Park.

- Thunderstorm chances continue each day Wednesday and beyond with
  some storms having the potential to become severe each afternoon
  and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

H500 high pressure should get pushed off to the east on Tuesday as
troughing moves east across the Rockies. WAA is not expected to be
as strong as Monday, but temperatures will still be in the upper 90s
to 100s across the region, resulting in very little relief from the
heat. Moisture is expected to be remain in place over the Panhandles
into eastern NM on Tuesday as a shortwave trough moves over the
region. Thunderstorms may start to form across northeastern NM by
early afternoon, but may not start to form across the Panhandles
until mid to late afternoon. Coverage should be more scattered in
nature given synoptic scale lift. Instability is not very high, even
from the moisture rich NAM, which only depicts MLCAPE values upwards
of 1000 J/kg. What will be a concern is just how high the DCAPE
values are forecast to be, which are upwards of 1500-1750 J/kg. The
combination of the high DCAPE values combined with a quick moving
forward storm motion should result in a damaging wind gust threat
for the central and western Panhandles. Damaging wind gusts upwards
of 70-80 mph will be possible with any storms before they begin to
dissipate during the evening hours.

Strong WAA returns on Wednesday with forecast model guidance
suggesting H850 temperatures increase upwards of 35 Celsius by peak
heating during the afternoon. A decent portion of the Panhandles may
need a Heat Advisory given temperatures approaching or exceeding 105
degrees. Extreme Heat criteria (110 degrees or higher) may be
reached at the bottom of Palo Duro Canyon, so an Extreme Heat Watch
has been issued for that potential. What will aid in the increased
temperatures are drier dew points for the central and western
Panhandles as a dry line mixes east and should be oriented from
roughly western Beaver county down to western Armstrong county. To
the east of the dryline, moisture will remain in place and
convective temperatures should be achieved resulting in isolated to
scattered storm development. The set-up looks very similar to what
was experienced on Monday and as a result, severe storms will be
possible along and east of the dryline. Large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazards in addition to heavy rain, which
may lead to flash flooding concerns as the storms will not be moving
very quickly. Any storms that form should quickly decrease in
strength during the early evening as the sun sets.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Upper level ridging is forecast to prevail across much of the
northern half of the CONUS late this week through this weekend. The
Panhandles will be in between this weather system and high pressure
to the south so westerly flow is forecast for much of the long term
forecast period. From Thursday through Saturday, temperatures are
likely to remain in the upper 80s to 90s with a few locations
potentially reaching 100, such as Palo Duro Canyon State Park. Low
to mid level Gulf of America moisture should continue to be in place
over the southern High Plains during this time frame and shortwave
troughs should move over the Panhandles resulting in daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

For Thursday, a weak cold front is expected to start moving across
the Panhandles. A line of storms is expected to form along this
front all the way from the Great Lakes down to the Texas Panhandle.
Sufficient instability may be in place to generate severe
thunderstorms along this line which may impact the eastern TX
Panhandle. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary
hazards if any storms form across the eastern CWA. Friday and
beyond, the latest models diverge on just the placement and
timing of any shortwaves, but in general there are at least 20-30
percent chances for rain each evening into the overnight. Storms
may be able to sustain themselves into the overnight hours this
weekend, aided by lift from the shortwaves and forecast soundings
indicating the potential for elevated CAPE profiles. Temperatures
will begin to decrease this upcoming weekend into the next work
week as the Panhandles are under the influence of the bottom of
the H500 ridge. Thunderstorm chances may persist each day with
this projected pattern.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the rest of the morning hours at
all sites. Later this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms look to
affect the KDHT and KGUY terminals. PROB30 groups continue for
both of sites from 21Z to 00Z Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances have
increase slightly for KAMA late this evening. Confidence is still
too low to include mentions in the TAF, but if storms hold
together longer than expected KAMA could experience impacts.

Strong winds are still forecast to affect all TAF sites through
the day. The wind direction will be primarily from the southwest.
Strong winds are expected to continue through the night and linger
till the end of the 12Z period.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...55