195
FXUS64 KAMA 261918
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
218 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

-Showers and storms possible each day for the majority of the
forecast period.

-Strong to Severe storms this afternoon and evening. Main focus
 with storms will be heavy rain, and some localized flooding
 concerns, but storm may be strong enough to get a 60 mph wind
 gust.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Overall upper level flow now moving more out of the southwest.
Today we have a shortwave embedded in that flow which will give a
bit more enhancement and assist a little more with storm motion.
PWAT`s still very high 1.32" on the 18z sounding, and overall
DCAPE less than 1000 J/kg is on the lower side, but given the
storm motion expected today to be in the 15 to 20 mph range, there
might just be enough energy to get a severe wind gust out of
things. Overall, the hail threat should be low given the more
tropical environment that we are in. On the flip side, we`ve had a
lot of low level moisture and our dewpoints remain in the 60s for
the most part, supporting higher CAPE values as of late, and
storms have been over-performing on both intensity and coverage
versus some of the CAM`s. 18z sounding has over 3000 J/kg of SB
CAPE with 1700 ML CAPE, give these numbers we could have stronger
updrafts. Shear is pretty weak, around 15 to 20 kts, which is
working against storm organization. So overall, today will have
scattered storms that will produce heavy rain (1-2" per hour), and
they may manage to be pulse severe (short lived) as well, with
winds that could get up to 60 mph. Given the high CAPE values,
will not rule out hail, but very low confidence <5% that we manage
to get 1" hail. Just too much melting due to the moist
environment, and warmer air in general aloft, but will not
completely rule it out. Storms should diminish this evening with
the loss of daytime heating.

Tomorrow still holds a high degree of uncertainty as we are in a
pretty disorganized weather pattern aloft and a high attempting to
build over the Four Corners. CAM`s are not to excited with
afternoon storms, but still some models recently trying to show
some more scattered storms. With no added dynamics other than
just differential heating to get storms going, the expectation is
that storms tomorrow will just be heavy rain producers and
possibly would be a flood threat if they`re long lived, with slow
storm motion. Again, still a high level of uncertainty as several
models don`t want to convect and keep the atmosphere stable.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The weekend continues to be up in the air. Saturday will be in a
similar situation as Friday, when it comes to storm coverage. But
it does appear that Saturday would have the lowest chance of rain,
but that still doesn`t rule out showers or storms. Come Sunday we
have ample moisture return to the Panhandles and a system coming
down off the Rockies and it looks like a lot of our convection we
get will be triggered off the Rockies and track east over the
Panhandles Sunday night. Monday through Wednesday we`ll continue
to have showers and storms each day as this moisture continues to
track over the Panhandles, and we may even have some disturbances
to enhance the storm potential .

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will be out of the south for the most part in the 10
to 15 kt range. PROB30s are set for mainly the 20z-04z time period
at the sites, as we do expect afternoon scattered storms to pop
around the Panhandles, but confidence on any timing is low. Will
amend as necessary for storms that look to impact the TAF sites.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89