164
FXUS64 KAMA 111100
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
600 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

- Thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday. Storms on Monday
  may be strong to severe and could produce heavy rain that may
  lead to localized flash flooding.

- Temperatures over the next week will gradually warm back up to
  near average.

- A pattern change may lead to additional shower and thunderstorm
  chances next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the early morning
hours across mainly the northern half of the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles. The ingredients are in place for a few storms to
become severe, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat
(upwards of 50-60 percent chance) based on the latest Warn-on-
Forecast (WoFS) solutions. The highest chances for these strong
wind gusts will be across the northeastern Panhandles (including
Beaver county) over the next few hours. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch remains in effect for the northern half of the CWA through 3
AM this morning. Showers and storms will gradually move east and
diminish near sunrise this morning.

The base of an upper level trough will remain over the region
today and PVA will continue to round the base of the trough this
evening. Moisture will also be sufficient to generate additional
showers and storms later today. However, one caveat may be if
activity lingers too long across the south this morning, that
could limit the potential for later on today. Current expectation
is that there will be enough time for the atmosphere to recover
for additional thunderstorms to move in and develop across the
central and south during the evening to overnight hours.
Sufficient instability will be in place for a few storms to become
severe, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.
Additionally, PWAT values will remain on the higher side so
locally heavy rain may lead to some flash flooding issues if
storms can train over the same areas. Temperatures this afternoon
will be a bit cooler with highs mainly in the 80s due to the
trough overhead along with cloud cover during the day.

Model guidance diverges on the evolution of the trough and the
embedded low pressure system on Tuesday. Most guidance has the low
pressure system being just off to the east on Tuesday, which
should leave the Panhandles mostly dry with potentially the south
seeing an isolated shower or storm. Even if showers or storms do
not form on Tuesday, temperatures are once again expected to be
below average, with current forecast highs in the 80s.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Very weak flow aloft is forecast over much of the southern US as
high pressure builds in through the end of this work week. This will
generally lead to slowly rising temperatures with current forecast
highs around average for mid August. This pattern also favors drier
conditions, but there will be some mid level moisture in place over
the High Plains so cannot completely rule out a few isolated showers
or storms from Wednesday through Friday. Broad troughing is expected
to dig south over the western CONUS late this week into next
weekend. This pattern may lead to southwest flow over the southern
High Plains which would aid in allowing monsoonal moisture to return
to the Panhandles. Higher chances for rain may return given the
upper level pattern change and temperatures should remain near
average next weekend.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Generally VFR conditions at all terminals for today. However there
is a major exception in the form of rain showers and
thunderstorms. This morning there are light rain showers that have
a very low chance of impacting any terminal with brief MVFR
conditions during there passage. Then this afternoon and evening
further rain showers and thunderstorms will form that have higher
chances of occurring at KAMA then lesser chances for KDHT and
even lesser chances at KGUY. These storms will be capable of
producing brief IFR conditions during passage over an airfield.
There is a low chance that the storms become strong to sever with
large hail and damaging winds.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...98