757
FXUS64 KAMA 140507
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1207 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

- Temperatures in the mid-90s to around 100 degrees is expected
  Thursday and Friday.

- The Palo Duro Canyon may see temperatures
  increase further over both days with a Heat Advisory Present
  starting this afternoon.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on a daily basis from
  Saturday through at least Wednesday, primarily in the evening
  hours. Heavy rain will become an increasing threat with time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Latest model runs have seen the present upper-level ridge and its
associated high take a bit longer to trek eastward in the
southeastern United States. This slower pace has in turn seen
drier weather more prevalent for today and Friday with most of the
recent CAMs backing off chances of showers or thunderstorms for
both afternoon. Unfortunately this drier weather holding on will
also see the Panhandles continue to heat up with many location
reaching into the upper 90s to triple digits for both afternoons.
These hotter temperatures can become quite worrisome for our
hotter locations where temperatures could even surpass the triple
digit mark. This holds especially true for the Palo Duro Canyon as
local terrain features and relatively quiet winds can easily see
the canyon floor heat to temperature above 105 degrees this
afternoon. Give the potential, a Heat Advisory has been issued for
the canyon that will start at noon and last until 9 PM tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Moving into the weekend has model agreement continuing to see the
eastward propagation of the ridge and its associated high
pressure system as it pushes into the Southeastern United States.
This placement will once again see mid and low-level flow shift
into a better position to push gulf moisture over the Panhandles.
In turn, higher dewpoint temperatures are expected to follow as
early as Saturday alongside better chances at showers and
thunderstorms. These chances will only increase as we move into
the new week with the Panhandles currently seeing roughly a 20 to
30% chance of precipitation each day that could last clear into
next Wednesday. While severe potential is likely to be present
with these chances, concerns of flooding may becoming the bigger
issue as we progress through the period. In correspondence with
the incoming moisture, models are seeing PWAT values jump back
above 1 inch with potential to reach near the 1.5 inch mark with
each passing day. This would open up the potential for storms to
produce heavy to torrential rainfall that could add up over the
multiple days resulting in areas becoming more flood prone.
Regardless temperatures do look to cool slightly in response to
the incoming moisture, but should still hold in the low to mid 90s
clear into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions with southerly winds around 10 to 12 kts expected
to prevail over the next 24 hours. A few high clouds may be
present. Some gusts up to 22 to 25 kts will be possible in the
latter half of this TAF period.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...36