991
FXUS64 KAMA 212001
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
201 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

-Temperatures above average starting next week, especially by
 Monday with high temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 141 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

For Amarillo, it has been at least 84 consecutive hours of 32
degrees or lower since late Monday night.We have finally got
above freezing here in the Amarillo area, along with several other
locations across the Panhandles. Most likely in the far eastern
Panhandles, you may have to add another 24 hours of at or below
freezing temps through tomorrow morning. By tomorrow however, with
a favorable H850 WAA flow and W/SW sfc winds, all of the
Panhandles will reach high temperatures well into the 50s with a
few areas reach 60 degrees with abundant sunshine. A great start
to the coming weekend!

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 141 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Dry conditions with temperatures warming up will be the main
overview of the long term forecast period. Subtle perturbation
will traverse the southern CONUS through this low amplitude
sinusoidal regime. But with scant moisture advection, if any from
south Texas, in-conjunction with large scale subsidence within the
vicinity of the southern stream H250 jet, downslope flow and
continued low level WAA should allow temperatures to respond
nicely. When a few degrees above latest guidance by Monday where
H850 thermal ridge will be set in place with high temperatures
Sunday through Tuesday will be above average. In particular for
Monday, there is about a 10-20% chance high temperatures for
portions of the TX Panhandle could be at or above 80 degrees. As a
surface cold front return for Tuesday through the remainder of the
forecast period, temperatures will only drop from well above
normal to slightly above normal as we go into the final few days
of February.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout the 18Z TAF period at all TAF
sites. Winds should mainly be out of the west and southwest at
5-10 kts under mostly clear skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                18  59  26  64 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  13  58  23  65 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              16  57  25  63 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  19  60  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              18  60  23  65 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  18  58  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               15  58  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 14  55  21  64 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  14  60  22  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                17  57  25  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                15  57  26  63 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   17  58  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                14  57  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              14  55  25  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29