Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
209 FXUS64 KAMA 171058 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 558 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 855 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 - There is a low chance of storms today and again for Saturday afternoon with main impact being heavy rainfall. - Hot conditions will begin to build back in this weekend with potential to be back near or in the triple digits by the start of next work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 855 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Today and Saturday a rex block pattern remains across the southern plains. This is seen with a high pressure to the north of the panhandles in the northeastern Colorado area. The low pressure portion of this system is over the southern panhandles through western portions of Texas. This setup is streaming up gulf moisture into the panhandles that is causing the PWATs soar to well above normal. This puts the PWATs of 1.25 to 1.9 inches in the top 10 percent for this time of the year. With all this moisture lingering around all that is needed is forcing to get rain showers and thunderstorms going. This is hard to achieve as the rex block pattern is unfavorable for large scale forcing. Instead the forcing is confined mainly to the weak broad lift and small vorticity from the low pressure system sitting over the region. This also restricts storm initiation mainly to reaching convective temperature and the small vorticity. The better forcing and lift is most likely to occur in the southeastern panhandles with lesser chances to the northwest. Still the forcing remains weak so the chances for rain showers and storms today will be low. However since we have had isolated rain showers and thunderstorms the past few days, today should be no different. So most people will not see any rain but there will be some lucky winners who do get rain today. With that significant amount of moisture being around the rainfall today can be very heavy. If it persists for long enough it could even lead to localized flooding. Even without flooding the very heavy rainfall can lead to travel impacts due to the reductions to visibilities. What storms that form today will most likely come to an end by the later evening hours. Saturday the pattern in large remains the same as today. This means we can expect very similar weather and it associated impacts. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 855 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026 Sunday through next work week the high pressure system is most likely to remain the dominant weather feature across the southern plains. This has a high chance of bringing increasing heat across the panhandles that can see the return of triple digit highs by the start of next work week. This has the potential to bring back the risk of heat illness to the panhandles for next work week. As for the prospect of rain showers and thunderstorms this will depend heavily on the position and strength of the high pressure. If the high pressure is located more to the west of the panhandles it will cause a northwesterly flow. This setup would allow for weather system to pass across the panhandles allowing for the chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Conversely if the high pressure is over the panhandles or just too strong then it would prevent these weather system leaving the panhandles dry. Right now it remains uncertain just how the high pressure will evolve. Current though is that the high pressure system will move meander around allowing for the passage of a few weather systems. So for now the forecast will reflect a low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms next week, mainly on Tuesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026 Expect winds generally out of the south southeast at 8 to 15 knots. The chance of seeing any MVFR/IFR cigs this morning is low, but can`t completely rule out a brief period of low ST mainly before 15z near AMA. Confidence too low to include mention in TAF, but watch for amendments. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail outside any isolated showers/storms this afternoon and evening. Ward && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...07