408
FXUS64 KAMA 102302
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
602 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Thunderstorm chances (35-50%) across the southern and southwestern
  Texas Panhandle this afternoon/evening.

- 100+ degree temperatures return to the Panhandles this weekend,
  with the highest confidence in the southeast.

- A pattern shift next week could bring much needed rain and
  breaks in temperatures to portions of the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Early morning convection in the eastern and southeastern CWA has
dissipated. Northerly winds behind the southerly moving surface
boundary are expected to turn easterly and then return to
southerly/southeasterly flow. Clouds clearing behind the boundary and
daytime heating throughout the day, as well as surface winds
turning from E to S and transporting dewpoints of 60+ degrees into
the southern Panhandle will allow the thermodynamic environment
across the southern CWA to recover throughout the afternoon. This
will promote moderate instability, with MLCAPE values of 1200-2000
J/kg across the southern TX Panhandle. An upper-level shortwave
trough across the Panhandle will provide the forcing for the
second round of thunderstorms today, as the positioning is
currently favored to initiate over the south central Texas
Panhandle. Positive vorticity associated with the shortwave, as
well as a recovering airmass, and bulk shear values of 25-30 kts
creeping into the southern Panhandle could align to produce severe
thunderstorms. Upper level support and bulk shear could account
for some supercellular development, before upscale growth, likely
into clusters. Therefore, the chance for large hail and damaging
wind gusts can not be ruled out for this evenings round of
thunderstorms. The current uncertainty still lies in the recovery
of the airmass after the boundary passage last night/this morning,
as well as how outflow boundaries will affect the spatial
coverage of thunderstorms.

As we head into the weekend, the upper-level high pressure center
that we are currently on the eastern periphery of flattens out and
expands east. This will push our current weather pattern east and
place the Panhandles directly underneath the upper-level high
pressure center. This will allow temperatures to build, and cause
PoP chances to decrease CWA-wide. On Saturday, 100 degree
temperatures are expected to return across the southeastern half of
the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

On Sunday, upper-level high pressure finds itself in the
southeastern US, as a synoptic-scale upper-level trough extending
from Canada to the four-corners region makes its way east from the
Pacific. While Sunday will likely remain hot and dry, this pattern
shift will place the Panhandles in SW upper-level flow, allowing for
a more sustained and larger scale weather pattern to set up through
the beginning of next week. Sustained SW flow over the Rockies will
allow for repeated lee-side troughing and upper-level support
throughout next week. While the exact scope of this weather event is
uncertain, widespread daily PoP chances Monday-Wednesday are on the
table. As we near the end of the forecast period, the end of next
week hints at the possibility of an upper-level low forming over the
southern plains landing the Panhandles in NW upper-level flow, which
could allow for PoP chances to extend into the later half of the
week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A weather system continues to move across the panhandles causing
thunderstorms in the southern Texas panhandle. There is a low
chance for these storms to be strong to severe producing large
hail and damaging winds. Further any storm can produce heavy
to torrential rainfall with severe visibility reductions. This can
be IFR to VLIFR in the heavier rain shafts. These storms are
currently to the south of KAMA and are heading southward. Still
there is a low to medium chance for further thunderstorm
development thus KAMA TAF still reflects thunderstorms on station.
All the thunderstorm activity will come to an end this evening
leaving VFR and fair weather conditions for the panhandles. Winds
will be breezy from the south to southwest for Friday afternoon.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...98