259
FXUS64 KAMA 152312
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
612 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Thunderstorms will move into the western combined Panhandles
  this evening, some of which will have the possibility to become
  severe.

- Extreme heat expected for the combined Panhandles on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Upper-level NW flow is in place over the combined Panhandles as a
result of a positively-tilted long wave trough spanning from the
east coast to the Northern Great Plains. Northwesterly flow across
the Rockies will establish a lee side shortwave perturbation,
developing a low pressure center in central CO. Upsloping flow and
differential heating of higher terrain will initiate storms in
south-central CO and eastern NM. Storms will move southeasterly
into the combined Panhandles where they will run into moderate
instability (~1000 J/kg) and 30-40 kts of effective shear. This
will support the possibility of developing a few supercells,
before upscale growth into a messier storm mode (likely clusters) as
it progresses southeasterly. The best conditions for severe
weather reside in the northwestern combined Panhandles, where the
more widespread shear meets the most instability. Hodographs look
slightly better in this region as well, but weak surface winds
keep hodographs modest in the low-levels. However, inverted-V
soundings and DCAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg support the
potential for strong wind gusts as storms move through.

Continuous southwesterly flow overnight and through the day on
Tuesday is progged to increase maximum temperatures by another
10 degrees, putting most of the Panhandles in the low-90`s. With
moisture still lingering, the possibility for diurnally heated
storms to convect remains. This is especially true in the
southeast CWA due to some some slight help of surface convergence
from the eastward progression of a diffuse moisture boundary.

Hot and dry southwesterly surface flow is going to top out our
temperatures on Wednesday. These SW winds will persist through
the overnight, but fall off into the afternoon hours, allowing
high temperatures to go untouched by breeze. H850 temperatures are
forecasted in the low- to mid- 30`s. The entirety of the combined
Panhandles are expected to be in the triple digits, with PDC
currently forecasted to reach 110 degrees.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Temperatures will taper back off on Thursday as a frontal passage
moves through the Panhandles, shifting winds to northerly. However,
maxT`s will still remain in the 80`s, before continuing to rise
through the weekend. Northerly flow will shift to easterly by
Thursday night, providing moisture and upsloping flow for PoP
chances to return to the forecast on Friday. Into the weekend, a
trough off of the southern coast of California begins to eject
over the Panhandles, which after a couple days of easterly and
southeasterly moist air moving into the area, could bring back
daily thunderstorm chances. These daily thunderstorm chances
currently favor the eastern Panhandles starting as early as
Saturday evening.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected through the period. A line of
thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico is moving southeast into the
southwest TX Panhandle. Cannot rule out some thunder in KAMA in
the next 2 to 3 hours. However, confidence is somewhat low at this
time. Some additional development of showers and storms in KS may
move into KGUY in the next 3 to 4 hours as well. Gusty convective
winds cannot be ruled out for any of the terminals over the next
few hours. Otherwise expect southerly winds up to 15 to 20 kts at
times.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...03