973
FXUS64 KAMA 121126
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
526 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 525 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Surface cold front is moving south across the Panhandles this
morning and is currently halfway through the area, which is
slightly ahead of schedule. Behind the front, we have been getting
reports of some freezing drizzle. This is likely occurring due to
the subtle lift provided by the front allowing some of the low
level moisture to overachieve and form some very light moisture. A
light glaze of ice is still possible across the area given the
front providing some extra lift for a few more hours. Anyone out
walking or driving this morning should drive with caution as some
places are not icy and then all of a sudden the roads/sidewalks
are icy.

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 254 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

- Very light wintry precipitation may continue through this
  morning with very minor accumulations of snow/ice forecast
  beyond this point.

- Cold temperatures/wind chills are forecast for Thursday morning
  with widespread wind chill values below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 254 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Light wintry precipitation is ongoing across portions of the
Panhandles early this morning. Snow is the predominant
precipitation type for areas across the central and north. Mid
level dry air is moving over much of the area and the main
accumulation period for any wintry precipitation is quickly coming
to an end. Some fog may also form this morning across the
southwest and with temperatures below freezing, freezing fog will
be possible. The most likely scenario will be a light mist rather
than fog, but in either case, be prepared for some lower
visibilities this morning.

Through the remainder of the morning, wintry precipitation will
come to an end across the area as a cold front surges southward
across the CWA. This cold front will bring a secondary surge of
colder air across the region with H850 temperatures dropping down
into the minus 10 to 15 Celsius range today into Thursday morning.
This surge of colder air will keep temperatures close to what they
were yesterday, which will be aided by cloud cover lingering
through much of the daytime hours today. Highs today should be
below freezing for much of the area if not the entire area. Clouds
should gradually clear out overnight which may help some areas
cool down below the current forecast, especially for areas that
may have some snow pack from the wintry precipitation this
morning. Winds will be on the light side (around 10 mph or less)
but even with that being said, wind chill values are forecast to
drop below zero for pretty much the entire area at some point
tomorrow night.

Dry conditions are forecast for Thursday along with breezy
southerly winds. Temperatures should warm up to just above
freezing to potentially the lower 40s across the area. Dry
conditions should persist through Thursday into Thursday night.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

The base of another trough is forecast to be close to the southern
tip of Nevada on Friday morning. Out ahead of this feature over
the Panhandles, zonal flow should prevail which will aid in
developing a leeside low pressure system that will already be in
place before sunrise on Friday. Winds will be breezy to start the
day, but will increase out of the southwest during the daytime
hours with gusts up to 40 to potentially 45 mph. Current humidity
forecast keeps the surface RH well above any fire weather
thresholds, but the breezy winds may lead to a low end elevated
fire weather day for Friday. High temperatures on Friday should be
able to reach the lower 60s given the downslope component of the
winds.

As the next system approaches the Southern High Plains on Friday
into Saturday, a cold front will propel south across the Plains
and should be through the entire CWA by mid morning on Saturday.
The main impact from this system looks to be another push of
colder air, but there may be just enough moisture to get some
light snow across the northern half of the CWA. Even if there is
light snow, the latest 12/01z NBM probability for 1 inch or more
of snow from this system is below 20 percent area wide. The cold
air mass remains in place for Sunday before the H500 trough exits
off to the east and zonal flow returns to the Panhandles.
Temperatures should rebound to above average for Monday. Tuesday
and beyond, there is tremendous uncertainty regarding all forecast
elements but the cooler and active weather pattern may persist
into the middle of next week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Light wintry precipitation in the form of freezing drizzle and/or
snow will continue for a few more hours at the terminals. Low
level clouds leading to LIFR to MVFR ceilings will remain in place
through much of the day today before beginning to lift and clear
out late in this TAF issuance. Winds have already turned
northerly behind a front at KDHT/KGUY and KAMA will follow
shortly. Winds will increase into the 10 to 15 kt range this
afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight tonight.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                27   9  40  24 /  20  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  22   3  35  16 /  60   0   0   0
Boise City OK              20   1  39  22 /  40   0   0   0
Borger TX                  26  10  41  24 /  40  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              28  10  46  26 /  20  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  29  11  43  24 /  10  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               29  11  36  21 /  10  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 24   3  41  23 /  30   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  21   2  37  20 /  60   0   0   0
Hereford TX                33  11  45  25 /   0  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                23   6  35  19 /  60  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   25   7  38  22 /  30  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                28  11  36  20 /  20  10   0   0
Wellington TX              32  13  36  21 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05