289
FXUS64 KAMA 021139
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
539 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 850 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Tuesday,
  especially for the western Panhandles.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible for the eastern
  Panhandles on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 850 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Latest 04Z observations shows a few showers trying to develop in
the far SE TX Panhandle. As the northern edge of the main area of
H700 theta-e advection moves into the SE TX Panhandle, in-
conjunction with the subtle H500 NW flow wave traversing the
Panhandles, some showers, and even an elevated thunderstorm may
be possible through 06-08Z before overall lift shifts well to the
east. South of the depicted theta-e gradient, some low clouds and
some patchy fog advecting NW from the Texas South Plains within
the tributaries of the Red River potentially as far north as PDC.
Any persistent low clouds and patchy fog that develops should
dissipate by mid morning. Generally cloud cover should dissipate
from west to east throughout the day. Clouds in the far eastern
combined Panhandles may linger the longest throughout the day on
Monday. As a result, high temperatures will range from the lower
60s in the far eastern Panhandles to mid and upper 70s in the far
western Panhandles.

Well pronounced H850 WAA will be established tomorrow as a
deepening H500 trough axis over the central Rockies brings sfc-mid
level SW flow into the region. With subsidence in the column,
very warm temperatures expected by Tuesday with highs ranging
from the upper 70s in the northern Panhandles to upper 80s in the
southern Texas Panhandle. With some breezy westerly winds along
with the warm temperatures and min RH values as low as 8-10
percent, we may see some elevated fire weather conditions on
Tuesday, especially for the western Panhandles.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 850 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Latest global model and numerical guidance continues to show the
main mid level disturbances continue to track just north of the
Panhandles. Main systems may still try to establish the main
moisture transport axis with its western periphery into the
eastern Panhandle. The best chances for any precipitation for the
eastern Panhandles (20-30%) will be Thursday in to Thursday
night. Overall temperatures throughout the long term forecast
period will remain above average for early March.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

KAMA could see some MVFR ceilings at times this morning, but VFR
conditions are expected to prevail at all sites for a majority of
the period. Winds will settle out of the south at 10-15 kts this
afternoon into the overnight hours. Confidence is too low to
include mentions in the TAFs at this time, but low level wind
shear will be possible overnight tonight.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...38