197
FXUS64 KAMA 060517
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1217 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

- Areas of drizzle and mist are expected through morning hour of
  Saturday with potential to see dense fog around sunrise.

- Shower and thunderstorm potential is still present Saturday
  night into Sunday, but is now favoring the Southern Panhandles.

- Precipitation chances decrease through next week with
  temperatures in the 80s to low 90s returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

As of late tonight latest satellite imagery has seen the front
stall well south of the Panhandles, which has left us with no real
lifting mechanism for all the present moisture. Instead the
Panhandles are seeing all this moisture condense into a light
drizzle or mist that may transition to a dense fog by the early
morning hours of Saturday. It is during Saturday that the latest
CAMs have taken a drastic turn from previous days with many of
them now seeing chances of showers drop to below 30% for the day
and night. At this time, latest observations and satellite imagery
are in agreement with this assessment with the expected track of
what is left of Tropical Storm Lorena much further south than
originally called for. With the track this far south, it will be
hard for the Panhandles to get that extra moisture push needed to
see showers flourish, especially during the overnight time frame
that was originally expected. Instead shower and thunderstorm
activity will be much more isolated and focused to the southern
Panhandles where our highest moisture content will be. Sunday will
also look to suffer from this drier outcome as most CAMs see
precipitation chances drop to 15% or less for the afternoon and
evening. Of course rainfall totals have also drop with most models
only seeing a couple of tenths possible this weekend, with the
only exception being localized higher amounts created by an
isolated thunderstorm. Otherwise, look for temperatures to
slightly rebound from the cold frontal passage with afternoon
highs returning to the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Monday, model agreement projects the present upper-level ridge
starting to push off the Western United States with arrival of a
closed low to the Pacific Northwest. This eastward exit of the the
ridge and associated high will see the Panhandles slowly lose its
connection to the gulf moisture with precipitation chances
shifting more to the eastern Panhandles for Monday and Tuesday.
Unfortunately with the drier scenario now coming to fruition this
weekend, models have significantly back off chances of
precipitation (15% or less) thanks to a lack of linger moisture.
Moving into the mid-week has the Panhandles getting a couple of
dry days as both the GFS and ECMWF places the ridge overhead while
the expected trough digs south into Nevada. By Friday active
weather may be upon the Panhandles once again with the expect
trough finally starting to push east. However the exact eastward
path of this trough is still a bit uncertain, so have left chances
of precipitation under 20% for now. Otherwise, look for
temperatures to warm once again with most of the week looking at
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

A large shield of low clouds has settled across the panhandles
producing IFR to VLIFR conditions at all terminals. There is a
moderate chance that this cloud bank will fully settle to the
surface becoming a dense layer of fog. Conditions will slowly
improve during the daytime hours as the low level cloud bank lifts
and slowly breaks up. How long this cloud bank takes to break up
will be key for tonight. If it takes to long then it will thicken
and settle again across all terminals tonight with renewed IFR or
worse conditions. If it manages to break out then conditions may
become VFR for at least a small window.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98